Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era
Date
2015-08Author
Reed, Andra J.
Concept link
Mann, Michael E.
Concept link
Emanuel, Kerry A.
Concept link
Lin, Ning
Concept link
Horton, Benjamin P.
Concept link
Kemp, Andrew C.
Concept link
Donnelly, Jeffrey P.
Concept link
Metadata
Show full item recordCitable URI
https://hdl.handle.net/1912/7564As published
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1513127112Keyword
Tropical cyclones; Flood height; Storm surge; New York City; Relative sea level; Hurricane; New JerseyAbstract
In a changing climate, future inundation of the United States’ Atlantic coast will depend on both storm
surges during tropical cyclones and the rising relative sea-levels on which those surges occur. However,
the observational record of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin is too short (AD 1851-present)
to accurately assess long-term trends in storm activity. To overcome this limitation, we use proxy sealevel
records, and downscale three CMIP5 models to generate large synthetic tropical cyclone data sets
for the North Atlantic basin; driving climate conditions span from AD 850 to AD 2005. We compare preanthropogenic
era (AD 850 – AD 1800) and anthropogenic era (AD 1970 – AD 2005) storm-surge model
results for New York City, exposing links between increased rates of sea-level rise and storm flood
heights. We find that mean flood heights increased by ~1.24 m (due mainly to sea level rise) from ~AD
850 to the anthropogenic era, a result that is significant at the 99% confidence level. Additionally,
changes in tropical cyclone characteristics have led to increases in the extremes of the types of storms
that create the largest storm surges for New York City. As a result, flood risk has greatly increased for
the region; for example, the 500 year return period for a ~2.25 m flood height during the preanthropogenic
era has decreased to ~24.4 years in the anthropogenic era. Our results indicate the
impacts of climate change on coastal inundation, and call for advanced risk management strategies.
Description
Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2015. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of National Academy of Sciences for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 112 (2015): 12610-12615, doi:10.1073/pnas.1513127112.
Collections
Suggested Citation
Preprint: Reed, Andra J., Mann, Michael E., Emanuel, Kerry A., Lin, Ning, Horton, Benjamin P., Kemp, Andrew C., Donnelly, Jeffrey P., "Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era", 2015-08, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1513127112, https://hdl.handle.net/1912/7564Related items
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
-
Impact of climate change on New York City’s coastal flood hazard : increasing flood heights from the preindustrial to 2300 CE
Garner, Andra J.; Mann, Michael E.; Emanuel, Kerry A.; Kopp, Robert E.; Lin, Ning; Alley, Richard B.; Horton, Benjamin P.; DeConto, Robert M.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Pollard, David (2017-09)The flood hazard in New York City depends on both storm surges and rising sea levels. We combine modeled storm surges with probabilistic sea-level rise projections to assess future coastal inundation in New York City from ... -
Ocean observations in support of studies and forecasts of tropical and extratropical cyclones
Domingues, Ricardo; Kuwano-Yoshida, Akira; Chardon-Maldonado, Patricia; Todd, Robert E.; Halliwell, George R.; Kim, Hyun-Sook; Lin, I.-I.; Sato, Katsufumi; Narazaki, Tomoko; Shay, Lynn Keith; Miles, Travis; Glenn, Scott; Zhang, Jun A.; Jayne, Steven R.; Centurioni, Luca R.; Le Hénaff, Matthieu; Foltz, Gregory R.; Bringas, Francis; Ali, M. M.; DiMarco, Steven F.; Hosoda, Shigeki; Fukuoka, Takuya; LaCour, Benjamin; Mehra, Avichal; Sanabia, Elizabeth; Gyakum, John R.; Dong, Jili; Knaff, John A.; Goni, Gustavo J. (Frontiers Media, 2019-07-29)Over the past decade, measurements from the climate-oriented ocean observing system have been key to advancing the understanding of extreme weather events that originate and intensify over the ocean, such as tropical ... -
On the incompleteness of the historical record of North Atlantic tropical cyclones
Solow, Andrew R.; Beet, Andrew R. (American Geophysical Union, 2008-06-03)There is some question as to whether the historical record of observed North Atlantic tropical cyclones prior to the advent of satellite coverage is complete. This question is central to understanding the historical trend ...