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dc.contributor.authorUmmenhofer, Caroline C.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorXu, Hong  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorTwine, Tracy E.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorGirvetz, Evan H.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorMcCarthy, Heather R.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorChhetri, Netra  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorNicholas, Kimberly A.  Concept link
dc.date.accessioned2015-07-10T17:58:12Z
dc.date.available2015-07-10T17:58:12Z
dc.date.issued2015-06-15
dc.identifier.citationJournal of Climate 28 (2015): 4653–4687en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1912/7382
dc.descriptionAuthor Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 28 (2015): 4653–4687, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00326.1.en_US
dc.description.abstractDownscaled climate model projections from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were used to force a dynamic vegetation agricultural model (Agro-IBIS) and simulate yield responses to historical climate and two future emissions scenarios for maize in the U.S. Midwest and wheat in southeastern Australia. In addition to mean changes in yield, the frequency of high- and low-yield years was related to changing local hydroclimatic conditions. Particular emphasis was on the seasonal cycle of climatic variables during extreme-yield years and links to crop growth. While historically high (low) yields in Iowa tend to occur during years with anomalous wet (dry) growing season, this is exacerbated in the future. By the end of the twenty-first century, the multimodel mean (MMM) of growing season temperatures in Iowa is projected to increase by more than 5°C, and maize yield is projected to decrease by 18%. For southeastern Australia, the frequency of low-yield years rises dramatically in the twenty-first century because of significant projected drying during the growing season. By the late twenty-first century, MMM growing season precipitation in southeastern Australia is projected to decrease by 15%, temperatures are projected to increase by 2.8°–4.5°C, and wheat yields are projected to decline by 70%. Results highlight the sensitivity of yield projections to the nature of hydroclimatic changes. Where future changes are uncertain, the sign of the yield change simulated by Agro-IBIS is uncertain as well. In contrast, broad agreement in projected drying over southern Australia across models is reflected in consistent yield decreases for the twenty-first century. Climatic changes of the order projected can be expected to pose serious challenges for continued staple grain production in some current centers of production, especially in marginal areas.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipThis work was initiated at the Dissertations Initiative for the Advancement of Climate Change Research (DISCCRS) V Symposium, supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation through collaborative Grants SES-0932916 and SES-0931402. CCU was supported by a University of New South Wales Vice-Chancellor Fellowship and the Penzance Endowed Fund and John P. Chase Memorial Endowed Fund at WHOI. TET was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy Award DE-EE0004397. NC was funded by NSF Grant EAR-1204774. We are indebted to the FORMAS-funded Land Use Today and Tomorrow (LUsTT) project (Grant 211-2009-1682) for financial support.en_US
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.publisherAmerican Meteorological Societyen_US
dc.relation.urihttps://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00326.1
dc.subjectAustraliaen_US
dc.subjectNorth Americaen_US
dc.subjectClimate changeen_US
dc.subjectClimate modelsen_US
dc.subjectClimate variabilityen_US
dc.subjectAgricultureen_US
dc.titleHow climate change affects extremes in maize and wheat yield in two cropping regionsen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00326.1


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