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dc.contributor.authorCooley, Sarah R.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorRheuban, Jennie E.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorHart, Deborah R.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorLuu, Victoria  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorGlover, David M.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorHare, Jonathan A.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorDoney, Scott C.  Concept link
dc.date.accessioned2015-06-10T18:57:14Z
dc.date.available2015-06-10T18:57:14Z
dc.date.issued2015-05-06
dc.identifier.citationPLoS One 10 (2015): e0124145en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1912/7332
dc.description© The Author(s), 2015. This is an open access article, free of all copyright. The definitive version was published in PLoS One 10 (2015): e0124145, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0124145.en_US
dc.description.abstractOcean acidification, the progressive change in ocean chemistry caused by uptake of atmospheric CO2, is likely to affect some marine resources negatively, including shellfish. The Atlantic sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) supports one of the most economically important single-species commercial fisheries in the United States. Careful management appears to be the most powerful short-term factor affecting scallop populations, but in the coming decades scallops will be increasingly influenced by global environmental changes such as ocean warming and ocean acidification. In this paper, we describe an integrated assessment model (IAM) that numerically simulates oceanographic, population dynamic, and socioeconomic relationships for the U.S. commercial sea scallop fishery. Our primary goal is to enrich resource management deliberations by offering both short- and long-term insight into the system and generating detailed policy-relevant information about the relative effects of ocean acidification, temperature rise, fishing pressure, and socioeconomic factors on the fishery using a simplified model system. Starting with relationships and data used now for sea scallop fishery management, the model adds socioeconomic decision making based on static economic theory and includes ocean biogeochemical change resulting from CO2 emissions. The model skillfully reproduces scallop population dynamics, market dynamics, and seawater carbonate chemistry since 2000. It indicates sea scallop harvests could decline substantially by 2050 under RCP 8.5 CO2 emissions and current harvest rules, assuming that ocean acidification affects P. magellanicus by decreasing recruitment and slowing growth, and that ocean warming increases growth. Future work will explore different economic and management scenarios and test how potential impacts of ocean acidification on other scallop biological parameters may influence the social-ecological system. Future empirical work on the effect of ocean acidification on sea scallops is also needed.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipCooley, Rheuban, and Doney were supported by NOAA Grant NA12NOS4780145 (www.noaa.gov) and the Center for Climate and Energy Decision Making (CEDM, NSF SES-0949710) (www.nsf.gov). Luu was supported by a WHOI Summer Student Fellowship (www.whoi.edu).en_US
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.publisherPublic Library of Scienceen_US
dc.relation.urihttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0124145
dc.rightsPublic Domain Dedication*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/
dc.titleAn integrated assessment model for helping the United States sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) fishery plan ahead for ocean acidification and warmingen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1371/journal.pone.0124145


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