Daily to decadal ecological forecasting along North American coastlines

Abstract

Coastal areas share unique intersections of large-scale climate variability and local hydrology, wetland, benthic and pelagic ecosystems, and anthropogenic pressures. Forecasting of harmful environmental conditions for planning, adaptation, and mitigation purposes is both complex and urgently needed. Ecological forecasting is the qualitative or quantitative projection of biogeochemical, organismal or ecosystem state variables and their drivers on timescales that can range from “now” to decades from now. Estimating hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay today, predicting acidity conditions in the Northeast Pacific in a few months, or projecting the depth of the Bering Sea nutricline in 2075 are all ecological forecasts relevant to planning, adaptation, and mitigation efforts. In 2022, the US CLIVAR and Ocean Carbon & Biogeochemistry (OCB) Programs convened a joint workshop to advance the development of US ecological forecasting. The workshop goals were to 1) identify sources of predictability of physical quantities relevant for marine ecosystems along US coastlines; 2) assess the observational needs of forecast systems and limitations due to gaps in understanding; and 3) promote the development of dynamical and statistical models suitable to meet the forecasting requirements. About 80 participants from over 40 US and international institutions joined this hybrid workshop for plenary talks and breakout discussions. Participants represented a diversity of career stages across academic institutions, government agencies, and non-government organizations. By working together, they collectively identified a path forward for a coordinated US ecological forecasting effort as detailed in this report.