Cold tongue and warm pool ENSO events in CMIP5 : mean state and future projections
Taschetto, Andrea S.
Sen Gupta, Alexander
Jourdain, Nicolas C.
Ummenhofer, Caroline C.
England, Matthew H.
MetadataShow full item record
KeywordAtmosphere-ocean interaction; Climate change; Climate variability; ENSO; Climate models; Model evaluation/performance
The representation of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) under historical forcing and future projections is analyzed in 34 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Most models realistically simulate the observed intensity and location of maximum sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies during ENSO events. However, there exist systematic biases in the westward extent of ENSO-related SST anomalies, driven by unrealistic westward displacement and enhancement of the equatorial wind stress in the western Pacific. Almost all CMIP5 models capture the observed asymmetry in magnitude between the warm and cold events (i.e., El Niños are stronger than La Niñas) and between the two types of El Niños: that is, cold tongue (CT) El Niños are stronger than warm pool (WP) El Niños. However, most models fail to reproduce the asymmetry between the two types of La Niñas, with CT stronger than WP events, which is opposite to observations. Most models capture the observed peak in ENSO amplitude around December; however, the seasonal evolution of ENSO has a large range of behavior across the models. The CMIP5 models generally reproduce the duration of CT El Niños but have biases in the evolution of the other types of events. The evolution of WP El Niños suggests that the decay of this event occurs through heat content discharge in the models rather than the advection of SST via anomalous zonal currents, as seems to occur in observations. No consistent changes are seen across the models in the location and magnitude of maximum SST anomalies, frequency, or temporal evolution of these events in a warmer world.
Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2014. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 27 (2014): 2861–2885, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00437.1.
Suggested CitationJournal of Climate 27 (2014): 2861–2885
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Miller, Arthur J.; Collins, Matthew; Gualdi, Silvio; Jensen, Tommy G.; Misra, Vasu; Pezzi, Luciano Ponzi; Pierce, David W.; Putrasahan, Dian; Seo, Hyodae; Tseng, Yu-Heng (Sears Foundation for Marine Research, 2017-05-01)Key aspects of the current state of the ability of global and regional climate models to represent dynamical processes and precipitation variations are summarized. Interannual, decadal, and global-warming timescales, wherein ...
Kravtsov, Sergey K.; Berloff, Pavel S.; Dewar, William K.; Ghil, M.; McWilliams, James C. (American Meteorological Society, 2006-12-15)A novel mechanism of decadal midlatitude coupled variability, which crucially depends on the nonlinear dynamics of both the atmosphere and the ocean, is presented. The coupled model studied involves quasigeostrophic ...
Marine ecosystem dynamics and biogeochemical cycling in the Community Earth System Model [CESM1(BGC)] : comparison of the 1990s with the 2090s under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios Moore, J. Keith; Lindsay, Keith; Doney, Scott C.; Long, Matthew C.; Misumi, Kazuhiro (American Meteorological Society, 2013-12-01)The authors compare Community Earth System Model results to marine observations for the 1990s and examine climate change impacts on biogeochemistry at the end of the twenty-first century under two future scenarios ...