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dc.contributor.authorMcGillicuddy, Dennis J.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorTownsend, David W.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorHe, Ruoying  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorKeafer, Bruce A.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorKleindinst, Judith L.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorLi, Y.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorManning, James P.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorMountain, David G.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorThomas, Maura A.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorAnderson, Donald M.  Concept link
dc.date.accessioned2014-04-21T18:44:00Z
dc.date.available2014-04-21T18:44:00Z
dc.date.issued2011-11
dc.identifier.citationLimnology and Oceanography 56 (2011): 2411-2426en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1912/6576
dc.descriptionAuthor Posting. © American Society of Limnology and Oceanography, 2011. This article is posted here by permission of American Society of Limnology and Oceanography for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Limnology and Oceanography 56 (2011): 2411-2426, doi:10.4319/lo.2011.56.6.2411.en_US
dc.description.abstractFor the period 2005–2009, the abundance of resting cysts in bottom sediments from the preceding autumn was a first-order predictor of the overall severity of spring–summer blooms of Alexandrium fundyense in the western Gulf of Maine and southern New England. Cyst abundance off mid-coast Maine was significantly higher in autumn 2009 than it was preceding a major regional bloom in 2005. A seasonal ensemble forecast was computed using a range of forcing conditions for the period 2004–2009, suggesting that a large bloom was likely in the western Gulf of Maine in 2010. This did not materialize, perhaps because environmental conditions in spring–summer 2010 were not favorable for growth of A. fundyense. Water mass anomalies indicate a regional-scale change in circulation with direct influence on A. fundyense's niche. Specifically, near-surface waters were warmer, fresher, more stratified, and had lower nutrients than during the period of observations used to construct the ensemble forecast. Moreover, a weaker-than-normal coastal current lessened A. fundyense transport into the western Gulf of Maine and Massachusetts Bay. Satellite ocean color observations indicate the 2010 spring phytoplankton bloom was more intense than usual. Early season nutrient depletion may have caused a temporal mismatch with A. fundyense's endogenous clock that regulates the timing of cyst germination. These findings highlight the difficulties of ecological forecasting in a changing oceanographic environment, and underscore the need for a sustained observational network to drive such forecasts.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipWe gratefully acknowledge support of the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (grant NA06NOS4780245 for the Gulf of Maine Toxicity (GOMTOX) program) and the Woods Hole Center for Oceans and Human Health through National Science Foundation grants OCE-0430724 and OCE-0911031 and National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences grant 1P50- ES01274201.en_US
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.publisherAssociation for the Sciences of Limnology and Oceanographyen_US
dc.relation.urihttps://doi.org/10.4319/lo.2011.56.6.2411
dc.titleSuppression of the 2010 Alexandrium fundyense bloom by changes in physical, biological, and chemical properties of the Gulf of Maineen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.4319/lo.2011.56.6.2411


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