Marine ecosystem dynamics and biogeochemical cycling in the Community Earth System Model [CESM1(BGC)] : comparison of the 1990s with the 2090s under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios
Moore, J. Keith
Doney, Scott C.
Long, Matthew C.
MetadataShow full item record
KeywordClimate prediction; Forecast verification/skill; Climate models; Ecological models; Model evaluation/performance; Ocean models
The authors compare Community Earth System Model results to marine observations for the 1990s and examine climate change impacts on biogeochemistry at the end of the twenty-first century under two future scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Late-twentieth-century seasonally varying mixed layer depths are generally within 10 m of observations, with a Southern Ocean shallow bias. Surface nutrient and chlorophyll concentrations exhibit positive biases at low latitudes and negative biases at high latitudes. The volume of the oxygen minimum zones is overestimated. The impacts of climate change on biogeochemistry have similar spatial patterns under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, but perturbation magnitudes are larger under RCP8.5. Increasing stratification leads to weaker nutrient entrainment and decreased primary and export production (>30% over large areas). The global-scale decreases in primary and export production scale linearly with the increases in mean sea surface temperature. There are production increases in the high nitrate, low chlorophyll (HNLC) regions, driven by lateral iron inputs from adjacent areas. The increased HNLC export partially compensates for the reductions in non-HNLC waters (~25% offset). Stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions and climate by the end of this century (as in RCP4.5) will minimize the changes to nutrient cycling and primary production in the oceans. In contrast, continued increasing emission of CO2 (as in RCP8.5) will lead to reduced productivity and significant modifications to ocean circulation and biogeochemistry by the end of this century, with more drastic changes beyond the year 2100 as the climate continues to rapidly warm.
Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2013. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 26 (2013): 9291–9312, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00566.1.
Suggested CitationJournal of Climate 26 (2013): 9291–9312
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Preindustrial-control and twentieth-century carbon cycle experiments with the Earth System Model CESM1(BGC) Lindsay, Keith; Bonan, Gordon B.; Doney, Scott C.; Hoffman, Forrest M.; Lawrence, David M.; Long, Matthew C.; Mahowald, Natalie M.; Moore, J. Keith; Randerson, James T.; Thornton, Peter E. (American Meteorological Society, 2014-12-15)Version 1 of the Community Earth System Model, in the configuration where its full carbon cycle is enabled, is introduced and documented. In this configuration, the terrestrial biogeochemical model, which includes ...
North-South asymmetry in the modeled phytoplankton community response to climate change over the 21st century Marinov, Irina; Doney, Scott C.; Lima, Ivan D.; Lindsay, Keith; Moore, J. Keith; Mahowald, Natalie M. (John Wiley & Sons, 2013-12-20)Here we analyze the impact of projected climate change on plankton ecology in all major ocean biomes over the 21st century, using a multidecade (1880–2090) experiment conducted with the Community Climate System Model ...
Challenges of modeling depth-integrated marine primary productivity over multiple decades : a case study at BATS and HOT Saba, Vincent S.; Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M.; Carr, Mary-Elena; Antoine, David; Armstrong, Robert A.; Asanuma, Ichio; Aumont, Olivier; Bates, Nicholas R.; Behrenfeld, Michael J.; Bennington, Val; Bopp, Laurent; Bruggeman, Jorn; Buitenhuis, Erik T.; Church, Matthew J.; Ciotti, Aurea M.; Doney, Scott C.; Dowell, Mark; Dunne, John P.; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Gregg, Watson; Hoepffner, Nicolas; Hyde, Kimberly J. W.; Ishizaka, Joji; Kameda, Takahiko; Karl, David M.; Lima, Ivan D.; Lomas, Michael W.; Marra, John F.; McKinley, Galen A.; Melin, Frederic; Moore, J. Keith; Morel, Andre; O'Reilly, John; Salihoglu, Baris; Scardi, Michele; Smyth, Tim J.; Tang, Shilin; Tjiputra, Jerry; Uitz, Julia; Vichi, Marcello; Waters, Kirk; Westberry, Toby K.; Yool, Andrew (American Geophysical Union, 2010-09-15)The performance of 36 models (22 ocean color models and 14 biogeochemical ocean circulation models (BOGCMs)) that estimate depth-integrated marine net primary productivity (NPP) was assessed by comparing their output to ...