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dc.contributor.authorSeo, Hyodae  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorXie, Shang-Ping  Concept link
dc.date.accessioned2013-10-29T18:05:32Z
dc.date.available2014-10-22T08:57:21Z
dc.date.issued2013-08-21
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1912/6282
dc.descriptionAuthor Posting. © The Author(s), 2013. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Springer for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 122 (2013): 19-32, doi:10.1007/s00703-013-0275-3.en_US
dc.description.abstractThe effect of pre-storm subsurface thermal structure on the intensity of hurricane Katrina (2005) is examined using a regional coupled model. The Estimating Circulation and Climate of Ocean (ECCO) ocean state estimate is used to initialize the ocean component of the coupled model, and the source of deficiencies in the simulation of Katrina intensity is investigated in relation to the initial depth of 26°C isotherm (D26). The model underestimates the intensity of Katrina partly due to shallow D26 in ECCO. Sensitivity tests with various ECCO initial fields indicate that the correct relationship between intensity and D26 cannot be derived because D26 variability is underestimated in ECCO. A series of idealized experiments is carried out by modifying initial ECCO D26 to match the observed range. A more reasonable relationship between Katrina’s intensity and pre-storm D26 emerges: the intensity is much more sensitive to D26 than to sea surface temperature (SST). Ocean mixed layer process plays a critical role in modulating inner-core SSTs when D26 is deep, reducing mixed layer cooling and lowering the center pressure of the Katrina. Our result lends strong support to the notion that accurate initialization of pre-storm subsurface thermal structure in prediction models is critical for a skillful forecast of intensity of Katrina and likely other intense storms.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipHS and SPX thank the support from NSF, NOAA, NASA and Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology. HS acknowledges support from the Penzance Endowed Fund in Support of Assistant Scientists at WHOI.en_US
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.relation.urihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-013-0275-3
dc.titleImpact of ocean warm layer thickness on the intensity of hurricane Katrina in a regional coupled modelen_US
dc.typePreprinten_US
dc.description.embargo2014-10-01en_US


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