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dc.contributor.authorBeaulieu, C.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorHenson, Stephanie A.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorSarmiento, Jorge L.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorDunne, John P.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorDoney, Scott C.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorRykaczewski, Ryan R.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorBopp, Laurent  Concept link
dc.date.accessioned2013-07-02T14:19:14Z
dc.date.available2013-07-02T14:19:14Z
dc.date.issued2013-04-23
dc.identifier.citationBiogeosciences 10 (2013): 2711-2724en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1912/6027
dc.description© The Author(s), 2013. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Biogeosciences 10 (2013): 2711-2724, doi:10.5194/bg-10-2711-2013.en_US
dc.description.abstractGlobal climate change is expected to affect the ocean's biological productivity. The most comprehensive information available about the global distribution of contemporary ocean primary productivity is derived from satellite data. Large spatial patchiness and interannual to multidecadal variability in chlorophyll a concentration challenges efforts to distinguish a global, secular trend given satellite records which are limited in duration and continuity. The longest ocean color satellite record comes from the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS), which failed in December 2010. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) ocean color sensors are beyond their originally planned operational lifetime. Successful retrieval of a quality signal from the current Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument, or successful launch of the Ocean and Land Colour Instrument (OLCI) expected in 2014 will hopefully extend the ocean color time series and increase the potential for detecting trends in ocean productivity in the future. Alternatively, a potential discontinuity in the time series of ocean chlorophyll a, introduced by a change of instrument without overlap and opportunity for cross-calibration, would make trend detection even more challenging. In this paper, we demonstrate that there are a few regions with statistically significant trends over the ten years of SeaWiFS data, but at a global scale the trend is not large enough to be distinguished from noise. We quantify the degree to which red noise (autocorrelation) especially challenges trend detection in these observational time series. We further demonstrate how discontinuities in the time series at various points would affect our ability to detect trends in ocean chlorophyll a. We highlight the importance of maintaining continuous, climate-quality satellite data records for climate-change detection and attribution studies.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipCB and JLS acknowledge financial support from the Carbon Mitigation Initiative with support from BP. JLS and RRR were partly supported by the NF-UBC Nereus Program. SAH was supported by NERC grant NE/G013055/1. SCD acknowledges support from NSF grant EF-0424599.en_US
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.publisherCopernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Unionen_US
dc.relation.urihttps://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2711-2013
dc.rightsAttribution 3.0 Unported*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/*
dc.titleFactors challenging our ability to detect long-term trends in ocean chlorophyllen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.5194/bg-10-2711-2013


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Attribution 3.0 Unported
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Attribution 3.0 Unported