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dc.contributor.authorvan der Hoop, Julie  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorVanderlaan, Angelia S. M.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorTaggart, Christopher T.  Concept link
dc.date.accessioned2012-12-14T16:05:36Z
dc.date.available2012-12-14T16:05:36Z
dc.date.issued2012-10
dc.identifier.citationEcological Applications 22 (2012): 2021–2033en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1912/5622
dc.descriptionAuthor Posting. © Ecological Society of America, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of Ecological Society of America for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ecological Applications 22 (2012): 2021–2033, doi:10.1890/11-1841.1.en_US
dc.description.abstractVessel strikes are the primary source of known mortality for the endangered North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis). Multi-institutional efforts to reduce mortality associated with vessel strikes include vessel-routing amendments such as the International Maritime Organization voluntary “area to be avoided” (ATBA) in the Roseway Basin right whale feeding habitat on the southwestern Scotian Shelf. Though relative probabilities of lethal vessel strikes have been estimated and published, absolute probabilities remain unknown. We used a modeling approach to determine the regional effect of the ATBA, by estimating reductions in the expected number of lethal vessel strikes. This analysis differs from others in that it explicitly includes a spatiotemporal analysis of real-time transits of vessels through a population of simulated, swimming right whales. Combining automatic identification system (AIS) vessel navigation data and an observationally based whale movement model allowed us to determine the spatial and temporal intersection of vessels and whales, from which various probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes are derived. We estimate one lethal vessel strike every 0.775–2.07 years prior to ATBA implementation, consistent with and more constrained than previous estimates of every 2–16 years. Following implementation, a lethal vessel strike is expected every 41 years. When whale abundance is held constant across years, we estimate that voluntary vessel compliance with the ATBA results in an 82% reduction in the per capita rate of lethal strikes; very similar to a previously published estimate of 82% reduction in the relative risk of a lethal vessel strike. The models we developed can inform decision-making and policy design, based on their ability to provide absolute, population-corrected, time-varying estimates of lethal vessel strikes, and they are easily transported to other regions and situations.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipThis research was supported by the Environment Canada Habitat Stewardship Programme, the Canadian Whale Institute, and R. K. Smedbol (St. Andrews Biological Station).en_US
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.publisherEcological Society of Americaen_US
dc.relation.urihttps://doi.org/10.1890/11-1841.1
dc.subjectAbsolute probability estimatesen_US
dc.subjectEndangered whalesen_US
dc.subjectEubalaena glacialisen_US
dc.subjectMarine area closureen_US
dc.subjectMortality reductionen_US
dc.subjectNorth Atlantic right whaleen_US
dc.subjectRoseway Basin, Scotian Shelfen_US
dc.subjectVessel routingen_US
dc.subjectVessel strikeen_US
dc.titleAbsolute probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes to North Atlantic right whales in Roseway Basin, Scotian Shelfen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1890/11-1841.1


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