Evaluation of monsoon seasonality and the tropospheric biennial oscillation transitions in the CMIP models
Figure S1: Percentage of successful Indian-Indian out-of-phase transitions and Indian-Australian in-phase transitions based on observational datasets (AIR/AWAP). (750.1Kb)
Figure S2: Percentage enhanced predictability for the Indian-Australian, Indian-Indian, Australian-Indian and Australian-Australian transitions for observations and CMIP3 and CMIP5 models based on the extended regions for which at least one ensemble member for that model and for at least one of the transitions shows a significant increase in predictability. (4.388Mb)
Jourdain, Nicolas C.
Taschetto, Andrea S.
Ummenhofer, Caroline C.
Sen Gupta, Alexander
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Characteristics of the Indian and Australian summer monsoon systems, their seasonality and interactions are examined in a variety of observational datasets and in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 and 5 (CMIP3 and CMIP5) climate models. In particular, it is examined whether preferred monsoon transitions between the two regions and from one year to another, that form parts of the Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation, can lead to improved predictive skill. An overall improvement in simulation of seasonality for both monsoons is seen in CMIP5 over CMIP3, with most CMIP5 models correctly simulating very low rainfall rates outside of the monsoon season. The predictability resulting from each transition is quantified using a Monte Carlo technique. The transition from strong/weak Indian monsoon to strong/weak Australian monsoon shows ∼15% enhanced predictability in the observations, in estimating whether the following monsoon will be stronger/weaker than the climatology. Most models also successfully simulate this transition. However, enhanced predictability for other transitions is less clear.
Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 39 (2012): L20713, doi:10.1029/2012GL053322.
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