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Effects of climate change on an emperor penguin population : analysis of coupled demographic and climate models

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dc.contributor.author Jenouvrier, Stephanie
dc.contributor.author Holland, Marika M.
dc.contributor.author Stroeve, Julienne
dc.contributor.author Barbraud, Christophe
dc.contributor.author Weimerskirch, Henri
dc.contributor.author Serreze, Mark
dc.contributor.author Caswell, Hal
dc.date.accessioned 2012-10-12T16:40:59Z
dc.date.available 2012-10-12T16:40:59Z
dc.date.issued 2012-06-21
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/1912/5445
dc.description Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2012. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of John Wiley & Sons for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Change Biology 18 (2012): 2756–2770, doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02744.x. en_US
dc.description.abstract Sea ice conditions in the Antarctic affect the life cycle of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri). We present a population projection for the emperor penguin population of Terre Adelie, Antarctica, by linking demographic models (stage-structured, seasonal, nonlinear, two-sex matrix population models) to sea ice forecasts from an ensemble of IPCC climate models. Based on maximum likelihood capture-mark-recapture analysis, we find that seasonal sea ice concentration anomalies (SICa) affect adult survival and breeding success. Demographic models show that both deterministic and stochastic population growth rates are maximized at intermediate values of annual SICa, because neither the complete absence of sea ice, nor heavy and persistent sea ice, would provide satisfactory conditions for the emperor penguin. We show that under some conditions the stochastic growth rate is positively affected by the variance in SICa. We identify an ensemble of 5 general circulation climate models whose output closely matches the historical record of sea ice concentration in Terre Adelie. The output of this ensemble is used to produce stochastic forecasts of SICa, which in turn drive the population model. Uncertainty is included by incorporating multiple climate models and by a parametric bootstrap procedure that includes parameter uncertainty due to both model selection and estimation error. The median of these simulations predicts a decline of the Terre Adelie emperor penguin population of 81% by the year 2100. We find a 43% chance of an even greater decline, of 90% or more. The uncertainty in population projections reflects large differences among climate models in their forecasts of future sea ice conditions. One such model predicts population increases over much of the century, but overall, the ensemble of models predicts that population declines are far more likely than population increases. We conclude that climate change is a significant risk for the emperor penguin. Our analytical approach, in which demographic models are linked to IPCC climate models, is powerful and generally applicable to other species and systems. en_US
dc.description.sponsorship MH acknowledges support through the National Science Foundation. HC acknowledges support from NSF Grant DEB-0816514, from the WHOI Arctic Research Initiative, and from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation. en_US
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.language.iso en_US en_US
dc.relation.uri http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02744.x
dc.subject Stochastic matrix population model en_US
dc.subject Stochastic climate forecast en_US
dc.subject IPCC en_US
dc.subject Uncertainties en_US
dc.subject Sea ice en_US
dc.subject Seabirds en_US
dc.title Effects of climate change on an emperor penguin population : analysis of coupled demographic and climate models en_US
dc.type Preprint en_US


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