A probabilistic evaluation of tank ship damage in grounding events
Citable URI
https://hdl.handle.net/1912/5352DOI
10.1575/1912/5352Keyword
Tankers; Collisions at sea; Pollution preventionAbstract
Recent international and domestic regulatory actions have resulted in significant changes
to oil tanker designs and intensified attention on predicting tanker environmental
performance following groundings or collisions. The current analytical method defined
by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) applies probabilistic damage extents to
proposed designs to determine expected oil outflows, which are compared to reference
double hull vessels. The IMO method considers the effect of subdivision on oil outflow,
but does not account for the ability of a specific structure to resist rupture and minimize
cargo loss. Further, IMO damage extents are based on a limited set of tanker casualty
data, and do not reflect current trends in materials or construction.
This thesis proposes a probabilistic method for evaluating the crashworthiness of new
tankers using a theoretical model for predicting grounding damage extents rather than
historical data. The procedure proposes developing and calibrating a probabilistic
grounding scenario, then applying the scenario in a Monte Carlo simulation to alternative
tanker designs for evaluation of Pollution prevention effectiveness. The simulation uses
the structural damage model DAMAGE to predict bottom damage extents following a
grounding for a series of notional single hull, double hull and intermediate oil-tight deck
tankers of comparable size designed for this research. The effect of structural
enhancements such as increasing plate thickness, densely packing longitudinal stiffeners or the adding more transverse framing is examined by comparing the oil outflow
characteristics of a family of modified double hull tankers. This research is done in
conjunction with simultaneous research into a similar method for tanker collisions.
Description
Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution June 1998
Suggested Citation
Thesis: Rawson, Charles E., "A probabilistic evaluation of tank ship damage in grounding events", 1998-06, DOI:10.1575/1912/5352, https://hdl.handle.net/1912/5352Related items
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