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    Predictability

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    bams-86-12-1733.pdf (119.2Kb)
    Date
    2005-12
    Author
    Hacker, Joshua  Concept link
    Hansen, James  Concept link
    Berner, Judith  Concept link
    Chen, YangQuan  Concept link
    Eshel, Gidon  Concept link
    Hakim, Gregory  Concept link
    Lazarus, Steven  Concept link
    Majumdar, Sharanya  Concept link
    Morss, Rebecca  Concept link
    Poje, Andrew  Concept link
    Sheremet, Vitalii A.  Concept link
    Tang, Youmin  Concept link
    Webb, Colleen  Concept link
    Metadata
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    Citable URI
    https://hdl.handle.net/1912/535
    As published
    https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-86-12-1733
    DOI
    10.1175/BAMS-86-12-1733
    Abstract
    A group of junior faculty members and UCAR junior scientists convened in Boulder, CO on June 16-18, 2003 for discussion on future scientific directions. This report summarizes the goals and products of one of the three foci selected for special consideration: predictability. About 15 people, representing physical, mathematical, and biological sciences, were present for round-table discussions. The discussion sought common interpretation of the predictability problem, points of generalization, identification of major hurdles, and potential approaches to their solution. The diverse background of the participants generated a wide-ranging discussion. The participants addressed predictability generally, while supplying specific examples from their own areas of expertise. Recurring themes included the relationship between models and initial conditions, the importance of definitions and the choice of a norm for evaluation, and generalization across systems and disciplines. The group explored potential avenues for generalization through interdisciplinary networking. Short- and long-range challenges were identified related to probabilistic state estimation, verifying predictions and understanding error, and dealing with nonlinearity. In this essay we expand on these themes and challenges, and describe possible future research objectives.
    Description
    Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2005. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 86 (2005): 1733-1737, doi:10.1175/BAMS-86-12-1733.
    Collections
    • Physical Oceanography (PO)
    Suggested Citation
    Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 86 (2005): 1733-1737
     
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