Abstract:
A group of junior faculty members and UCAR junior scientists convened in Boulder, CO
on June 16-18, 2003 for discussion on future scientific directions. This report summarizes the
goals and products of one of the three foci selected for special consideration: predictability.
About 15 people, representing physical, mathematical, and biological sciences, were present
for round-table discussions. The discussion sought common interpretation of the predictability
problem, points of generalization, identification of major hurdles, and potential approaches to
their solution. The diverse background of the participants generated a wide-ranging discussion.
The participants addressed predictability generally, while supplying specific examples
from their own areas of expertise. Recurring themes included the relationship between models
and initial conditions, the importance of definitions and the choice of a norm for evaluation,
and generalization across systems and disciplines. The group explored potential avenues for
generalization through interdisciplinary networking. Short- and long-range challenges were
identified related to probabilistic state estimation, verifying predictions and understanding error,
and dealing with nonlinearity. In this essay we expand on these themes and challenges,
and describe possible future research objectives.
Description:
Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2005. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 86 (2005): 1733-1737, doi:10.1175/BAMS-86-12-1733.
