Impacts of temporal CO2 and climate trends on the detection of ocean anthropogenic CO2 accumulation
Figure S3: Comparison between MLR DIC residuals along P16S (150 degrees W) for an MLR applied to the whole water column and an MLR applied to two alkalinity defined water masses. (461.9Kb)
Figure S4: Average percentage of grid points used in each longitudinal band for the percentage error analysis. (300.4Kb)
Figure S5: Comparison between error estimate for delta Canthro (eMLR) for an MLR applied to the whole water column and an MLR applied to two alkalinity defined water masses. (353.1Kb)
Figure S6: Error estimate for the eMLR using monthly model output (January) along the P16S transect. (361.2Kb)
Table S1: Cross-correlation (r) for biogeochemical and physical parameters used in the eMLR. (42.38Kb)
Goodkin, Nathalie F.
Levine, Naomi M.
Doney, Scott C.
MetadataShow full item record
KeywordAnthropogenic carbon detection; Global ocean model; Impact of global change; Ocean carbon sink
A common approach for estimating the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (Canthro) depends on the linear approximation of oceanic dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) from a suite of physical and biological ocean parameters. The extended multiple linear regression (eMLR) method assumes that baseline correlations and the resulting residual fields will remain constant with time even under the influence of secular climate changes. The validity of these assumptions over the 21st century is tested using a coupled carbon-climate model. Findings demonstrate that the influence of both changing climate and changing chemistry beyond 2–4 decades invalidates the assumption that the residual fields will remain constant resulting in significant errors in the eMLR estimate of Canthro. This study determines that the eMLR method is unable to describe Canthro uptake for a sampling interval of greater than 30 years if the error is to remain below 20% for many regions in the Southern Ocean, Atlantic Ocean, and western Pacific Ocean. These results suggest that, for many regions of the ocean basins, hydrographic field investigations have to be repeated at approximately decadal timescales in order to accurately predict the uptake of Canthro by the ocean if the eMLR method is used.
Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2011. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 25 (2011): GB3023, doi:10.1029/2010GB004009.
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Impact of ocean carbon system variability on the detection of temporal increases in anthropogenic CO2 Levine, Naomi M.; Doney, Scott C.; Wanninkhof, Rik; Lindsay, Keith; Fung, Inez Y. (American Geophysical Union, 2008-03-19)Estimates of temporal trends in oceanic anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) rely on the ability of empirical methods to remove the large natural variability of the ocean carbon system. A coupled carbon-climate model is used ...
Using present-day observations to detect when anthropogenic change forces surface ocean carbonate chemistry outside preindustrial bounds Sutton, Adrienne J.; Sabine, Chris L.; Feely, Richard A.; Cai, Wei-Jun; Cronin, Meghan F.; McPhaden, Michael; Morell, Julio M.; Newton, Jan A.; Noh, Jae Hoon; Ólafsdóttir, Sólveig R.; Salisbury, Joseph E.; Send, Uwe; Vandemark, Douglas; Weller, Robert A. (Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union, 2016-09-13)One of the major challenges to assessing the impact of ocean acidification on marine life is detecting and interpreting long-term change in the context of natural variability. This study addresses this need through a global ...
Detection of anthropogenic climate change in satellite records of ocean chlorophyll and productivity Henson, Stephanie A.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.; Dunne, John P.; Bopp, Laurent; Lima, Ivan D.; Doney, Scott C.; John, Jasmin G.; Beaulieu, C. (Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union, 2010-02-15)Global climate change is predicted to alter the ocean's biological productivity. But how will we recognise the impacts of climate change on ocean productivity? The most comprehensive information available on its global ...