Atlantic climate variability and predictability : a CLIVAR perspective
Hurrell, James W.
Busalacchi, Antonio J.
Clarke, R. A.
Delworth, T. L.
Dickson, R. R.
Johns, William E.
Koltermann, K. P.
McCartney, Michael S.
MetadataShow full item record
KeywordAtlantic Ocean; Climate prediction; Variational studies; Tropical variability; North Atlantic Oscillation
Three interrelated climate phenomena are at the center of the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Atlantic research: tropical Atlantic variability (TAV), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). These phenomena produce a myriad of impacts on society and the environment on seasonal, interannual, and longer time scales through variability manifest as coherent fluctuations in ocean and land temperature, rainfall, and extreme events. Improved understanding of this variability is essential for assessing the likely range of future climate fluctuations and the extent to which they may be predictable, as well as understanding the potential impact of human-induced climate change. CLIVAR is addressing these issues through prioritized and integrated plans for short-term and sustained observations, basin-scale reanalysis, and modeling and theoretical investigations of the coupled Atlantic climate system and its links to remote regions. In this paper, a brief review of the state of understanding of Atlantic climate variability and achievements to date is provided. Considerable discussion is given to future challenges related to building and sustaining observing systems, developing synthesis strategies to support understanding and attribution of observed change, understanding sources of predictability, and developing prediction systems in order to meet the scientific objectives of the CLIVAR Atlantic program.
Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society 2006. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 19 (2006): 5100–5121, doi:10.1175/JCLI3902.1.
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Wintertime atmospheric response to North Atlantic Ocean circulation variability in a climate model Frankignoul, Claude; Gastineau, Guillaume; Kwon, Young-Oh (American Meteorological Society, 2015-10-01)Maximum covariance analysis of a preindustrial control simulation of the NCAR Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), shows that a barotropic signal in winter broadly resembling a negative phase of the North ...
Low-latitude western north atlantic climate variability during the past millennium : insights from proxies and models Saenger, Casey P. (Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, 2009-09)Estimates of natural climate variability during the past millennium provide a frame of reference in which to assess the significance of recent changes. This thesis investigates new methods of reconstructing low-latitude ...
Mechanisms of multidecadal Atlantic meridional overturning circulation variability diagnosed in depth versus density space Kwon, Young-Oh; Frankignoul, Claude (American Meteorological Society, 2014-12-15)Multidecadal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is examined based on a comparison of the AMOC streamfunctions in depth and in density space, in a 700-yr present-day control integration ...