Atlantic climate variability and predictability : a CLIVAR perspective
Hurrell, James W.
Busalacchi, Antonio J.
Clarke, R. A.
Delworth, T. L.
Dickson, R. R.
Johns, William E.
Koltermann, K. P.
McCartney, Michael S.
MetadataShow full item record
KeywordAtlantic Ocean; Climate prediction; Variational studies; Tropical variability; North Atlantic Oscillation
Three interrelated climate phenomena are at the center of the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Atlantic research: tropical Atlantic variability (TAV), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). These phenomena produce a myriad of impacts on society and the environment on seasonal, interannual, and longer time scales through variability manifest as coherent fluctuations in ocean and land temperature, rainfall, and extreme events. Improved understanding of this variability is essential for assessing the likely range of future climate fluctuations and the extent to which they may be predictable, as well as understanding the potential impact of human-induced climate change. CLIVAR is addressing these issues through prioritized and integrated plans for short-term and sustained observations, basin-scale reanalysis, and modeling and theoretical investigations of the coupled Atlantic climate system and its links to remote regions. In this paper, a brief review of the state of understanding of Atlantic climate variability and achievements to date is provided. Considerable discussion is given to future challenges related to building and sustaining observing systems, developing synthesis strategies to support understanding and attribution of observed change, understanding sources of predictability, and developing prediction systems in order to meet the scientific objectives of the CLIVAR Atlantic program.
Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society 2006. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 19 (2006): 5100–5121, doi:10.1175/JCLI3902.1.
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Low-latitude western north atlantic climate variability during the past millennium : insights from proxies and models Saenger, Casey P. (Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, 2009-09)Estimates of natural climate variability during the past millennium provide a frame of reference in which to assess the significance of recent changes. This thesis investigates new methods of reconstructing low-latitude ...
Ocean climate variability in the eastern North Atlantic during interglacial marine isotope stage 11 : a partial analogue to the Holocene? de Abreu, Lucia; Abrantes, Fatima G.; Shackleton, Nicholas J.; Tzedakis, Polychronis C.; McManus, Jerry F.; Oppo, Delia W.; Hall, Michael A. (American Geophysical Union, 2005-08-30)Similar orbital geometry and greenhouse gas concentrations during marine isotope stage 11 (MIS 11) and the Holocene make stage 11 perhaps the best geological analogue period for the natural development of the present ...
Kravtsov, Sergey K.; Dewar, William K.; Ghil, M.; Berloff, Pavel S.; McWilliams, James C. (Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union, 2008-01-18)We show that the observed zonally averaged jet in the Northern Hemisphere atmosphere exhibits two spatial patterns with broadband variability in the decadal and inter-decadal range; these patterns are consistent with an ...