On the incompleteness of the historical record of North Atlantic tropical cyclones
MetadataShow full item record
There is some question as to whether the historical record of observed North Atlantic tropical cyclones prior to the advent of satellite coverage is complete. This question is central to understanding the historical trend in tropical cyclone activity and the effect of environmental factors on it. To address this question, a statistical model of the relationship between annual cyclone counts between 1870 and 2004 and sea surface temperature and the state of the Southern Oscillation is extended to allow for non-decreasing observation probability prior to 1966. The estimated observation probabilities increase from 0.72 in 1870 to 1 in 1964. Allowing for record incompleteness reduces the estimated effect of sea surface temperature on annual tropical cyclone activity.
Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 35 (2008): L11803, doi:10.1029/2008GL033546.
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
The depth-distribution of nitrogen fixation by Trichodesmium spp. colonies in the tropical–subtropical North Atlantic Olson, Elise M. B.; McGillicuddy, Dennis J.; Dyhrman, Sonya T.; Waterbury, John B.; Davis, Cabell S.; Solow, Andrew R. (Elsevier, 2015-07-02)Nitrogen fixation is an important yet still incompletely constrained component of the marine nitrogen cycle, particularly in the subsurface. A Video Plankton Recorder (VPR) survey in the subtropical North Atlantic found ...
Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era Reed, Andra J.; Mann, Michael E.; Emanuel, Kerry A.; Lin, Ning; Horton, Benjamin P.; Kemp, Andrew C.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P. (2015-08)In a changing climate, future inundation of the United States’ Atlantic coast will depend on both storm surges during tropical cyclones and the rising relative sea-levels on which those surges occur. However, the ...
Response of the North Pacific tropical cyclone climatology to global warming : application of dynamical downscaling to CMIP5 models Zhang, Lei; Karnauskas, Kristopher B.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Emanuel, Kerry (American Meteorological Society, 2017-02-01)A downscaling approach is applied to future projection simulations from four CMIP5 global climate models to investigate the response of the tropical cyclone (TC) climatology over the North Pacific basin to global warming. ...