Show simple item record

dc.contributor.authorHenson, Stephanie A.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorSarmiento, Jorge L.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorDunne, John P.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorBopp, Laurent  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorLima, Ivan D.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorDoney, Scott C.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorJohn, Jasmin G.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorBeaulieu, C.  Concept link
dc.identifier.citationBiogeosciences 7 (2010): 621-640en_US
dc.description© The Authors, 2010. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. The definitive version was published in Biogeosciences 7 (2010): 621-640, doi:10.5194/bg-7-621-2010en_US
dc.description.abstractGlobal climate change is predicted to alter the ocean's biological productivity. But how will we recognise the impacts of climate change on ocean productivity? The most comprehensive information available on its global distribution comes from satellite ocean colour data. Now that over ten years of satellite-derived chlorophyll and productivity data have accumulated, can we begin to detect and attribute climate change-driven trends in productivity? Here we compare recent trends in satellite ocean colour data to longer-term time series from three biogeochemical models (GFDL, IPSL and NCAR). We find that detection of climate change-driven trends in the satellite data is confounded by the relatively short time series and large interannual and decadal variability in productivity. Thus, recent observed changes in chlorophyll, primary production and the size of the oligotrophic gyres cannot be unequivocally attributed to the impact of global climate change. Instead, our analyses suggest that a time series of ~40 years length is needed to distinguish a global warming trend from natural variability. In some regions, notably equatorial regions, detection times are predicted to be shorter (~20–30 years). Analysis of modelled chlorophyll and primary production from 2001–2100 suggests that, on average, the climate change-driven trend will not be unambiguously separable from decadal variability until ~2055. Because the magnitude of natural variability in chlorophyll and primary production is larger than, or similar to, the global warming trend, a consistent, decades-long data record must be established if the impact of climate change on ocean productivity is to be definitively detected.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipS. A. H. was supported by NASA grants NNG06GE77G and NNX07AL81G. J. L. S. and C. B. acknowledge support from the Carbon Mitigation Initiative funded by BP Amoco. S. C. D. and I. L. were supported by NSF grant EF-0424599. L. B. acknowledges support from the ANR-GlobPhy and FP7-MEECE projects.en_US
dc.publisherCopernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Unionen_US
dc.rightsAttribution 3.0 Unported*
dc.titleDetection of anthropogenic climate change in satellite records of ocean chlorophyll and productivityen_US

Files in this item


This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record

Attribution 3.0 Unported
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Attribution 3.0 Unported