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dc.contributor.authorMann, Michael E.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorWoodruff, Jonathan D.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorDonnelly, Jeffrey P.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorZhang, Zhihua  Concept link
dc.date.accessioned2010-02-17T15:55:28Z
dc.date.available2010-02-17T15:55:28Z
dc.date.issued2009-06
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1912/3165
dc.descriptionAuthor Posting. © The Author(s), 2009. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Nature Publishing Group for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Nature 460 (2009): 880-883, doi:10.1038/nature08219.en_US
dc.description.abstractAtlantic Tropical Cyclone (TC) activity, as measured by annual storm counts, reached anomalous levels over the past decade. The short nature of the historical record and potential issues with its reliability in earlier decades, however, has prompted an ongoing debate regarding the reality and significance of the recent rise. Here, we place recent activity in a longer-term context, by comparing two independent estimates of TC activity over the past 1500 years. The first estimate is based on a composite of regional sedimentary evidence of landfalling hurricanes, while the second estimate employs a previously published statistical model of Atlantic TC activity driven by proxy-reconstructions of past climate changes. Both approaches yield consistent evidence of a peak in Atlantic TC activity during Medieval times (around AD 1000) followed by a subsequent lull in activity. The Medieval peak, which rivals or even exceeds (within uncertainties) recent levels of activity, results in the statistical model from a ‘perfect storm’ of La Niña-like climate conditions and relative tropical Atlantic warmth.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipM.E.M. and Z.Z. acknowledge support from the ATM programme of the National Science Foundation (grant ATM-0542356). J.P.D. acknowledges support from the EAR and OCE programmes of the National Science Foundation (grants EAR-0519118 and OCE-0402746), the Risk Prediction Initiative at the Bermuda Institute for Ocean Sciences, and the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research.en_US
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.relation.urihttps://doi.org/10.1038/nature08219
dc.titleAtlantic hurricanes and climate over the past 1,500 yearsen_US
dc.title.alternativeEl Niño, tropical Atlantic warmth, and Atlantic hurricanes over the past 1500 yearsen_US
dc.typePreprinten_US


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