Assessing the uncertainties of model estimates of primary productivity in the tropical Pacific Ocean
Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M.
Barber, Richard T.
Armstrong, Robert A.
Behrenfeld, Michael J.
Buitenhuis, Erik T.
Christian, James R.
Ciotti, Aurea M.
Doney, Scott C.
Dunne, John P.
Lima, Ivan D.
Moore, J. Keith
O'Malley, Robert T.
Saba, Vincent S.
Smyth, Tim J.
Westberry, Toby K.
MetadataShow full item record
KeywordPrimary production; Modeling; Remote sensing; Satellite ocean color; Statistical analysis; Tropical Pacific Ocean (15°N to 15°S and 125°E to 95°W)
Depth-integrated primary productivity (PP) estimates obtained from satellite ocean color based models (SatPPMs) and those generated from biogeochemical ocean general circulation models (BOGCMs) represent a key resource for biogeochemical and ecological studies at global as well as regional scales. Calibration and validation of these PP models are not straightforward, however, and comparative studies show large differences between model estimates. The goal of this paper is to compare PP estimates obtained from 30 different models (21 SatPPMs and 9 BOGCMs) to a tropical Pacific PP database consisting of ~1000 14C measurements spanning more than a decade (1983- 1996). Primary findings include: skill varied significantly between models, but performance was not a function of model complexity or type (i.e. SatPPM vs. BOGCM); nearly all models underestimated the observed variance of PP, specifically yielding too few low PP (< 0.2 gC m-2d-2) values; more than half of the total root-mean-squared model-data differences associated with the satellite-based PP models might be accounted for by uncertainties in the input variables and/or the PP data; and the tropical Pacific database captures a broad scale shift from low biomass-normalized productivity in the 1980s to higher biomass-normalized productivity in the 1990s, which was not successfully captured by any of the models. This latter result suggests that interdecadal and global changes will be a significant challenge for both SatPPMs and BOGCMs. Finally, average root-mean-squared differences between in situ PP data on the equator at 140°W and PP estimates from the satellite-based productivity models were 58% lower than analogous values computed in a previous PP model comparison six years ago. The success of these types of comparison exercises is illustrated by the continual modification and improvement of the participating models and the resulting increase in model skill.
Author Posting. © Elsevier B.V., 2009. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier B.V. for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Marine Systems 76 (2009): 113-133, doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2008.05.010.
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Challenges of modeling depth-integrated marine primary productivity over multiple decades : a case study at BATS and HOT Saba, Vincent S.; Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M.; Carr, Mary-Elena; Antoine, David; Armstrong, Robert A.; Asanuma, Ichio; Aumont, Olivier; Bates, Nicholas R.; Behrenfeld, Michael J.; Bennington, Val; Bopp, Laurent; Bruggeman, Jorn; Buitenhuis, Erik T.; Church, Matthew J.; Ciotti, Aurea M.; Doney, Scott C.; Dowell, Mark; Dunne, John P.; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Gregg, Watson; Hoepffner, Nicolas; Hyde, Kimberly J. W.; Ishizaka, Joji; Kameda, Takahiko; Karl, David M.; Lima, Ivan D.; Lomas, Michael W.; Marra, John; McKinley, Galen A.; Melin, Frederic; Moore, J. Keith; Morel, Andre; O'Reilly, John; Salihoglu, Baris; Scardi, Michele; Smyth, Tim J.; Tang, Shilin; Tjiputra, Jerry; Uitz, Julia; Vichi, Marcello; Waters, Kirk; Westberry, Toby K.; Yool, Andrew (American Geophysical Union, 2010-09-15)The performance of 36 models (22 ocean color models and 14 biogeochemical ocean circulation models (BOGCMs)) that estimate depth-integrated marine net primary productivity (NPP) was assessed by comparing their output to ...
Interannual variability of primary production and dissolved organic nitrogen storage in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre Luo, Ya-Wei; Ducklow, Hugh W.; Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M.; Church, Matthew J.; Karl, David M.; Doney, Scott C. (American Geophysical Union, 2012-08-10)The upper ocean primary production measurements from the Hawaii Ocean Time series (HOT) at Station ALOHA in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre showed substantial variability over the last two decades. The annual average ...
Nicholson, David P.; Stanley, Rachel H. R.; Doney, Scott C. (John Wiley & Sons, 2014-05-23)The triple oxygen isotopic composition of dissolved oxygen (17Δdis) was added to the ocean ecosystem and biogeochemistry component of the Community Earth System Model, version 1.1.1. Model simulations were used to investigate ...