The value of harmful algal bloom predictions to the nearshore commercial shellfish fishery in the Gulf of Maine
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KeywordHarmful algal bloom (HAB); Red tide; Fisheries; Value of information; Forecast; Marine scientific research
In this study, we develop a framework for measuring the value of harmful algal bloom (HAB) predictions. The framework captures the effects of both private and public responses to HABs. Using data from the New England nearshore commercial shellfish fishery and impact estimates for a large-scale HAB event in 2005, we illustrate how the potential value of HAB forecasts may be estimated. The results of our study suggest that the long-term value of a HAB prediction and tracking system for the Gulf of Maine is sensitive to the frequency of HAB events, the accuracy of predictions, the choice of HAB impact measures, and the effectiveness of public and private responses.
Author Posting. © Elsevier B.V., 2008. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier B.V. for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Harmful Algae 7 (2008): 772-781, doi:10.1016/j.hal.2008.03.002.
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