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    Decadal trends in the ocean carbon sink

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    Article (1.474Mb)
    Supplementary_Information (1.206Mb)
    Date
    2019-05-28
    Author
    DeVries, Timothy  Concept link
    Le Quere, Corinne  Concept link
    Andrews, Oliver D.  Concept link
    Berthet, Sarah  Concept link
    Hauck, Judith  Concept link
    Ilyina, Tatiana  Concept link
    Landschützer, Peter  Concept link
    Lenton, Andrew  Concept link
    Lima, Ivan D.  Concept link
    Nowicki, Michael  Concept link
    Schwinger, Jorg  Concept link
    Séférian, Roland  Concept link
    Metadata
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    Citable URI
    https://hdl.handle.net/1912/24306
    As published
    https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1900371116
    DOI
    10.1073/pnas.1900371116
    Keyword
     Carbon dioxide; Ocean carbon sink; Terrestrial carbon sink; Climate variability; Carbon budget 
    Abstract
    Measurements show large decadal variability in the rate of CO2 accumulation in the atmosphere that is not driven by CO2 emissions. The decade of the 1990s experienced enhanced carbon accumulation in the atmosphere relative to emissions, while in the 2000s, the atmospheric growth rate slowed, even though emissions grew rapidly. These variations are driven by natural sources and sinks of CO2 due to the ocean and the terrestrial biosphere. In this study, we compare three independent methods for estimating oceanic CO2 uptake and find that the ocean carbon sink could be responsible for up to 40% of the observed decadal variability in atmospheric CO2 accumulation. Data-based estimates of the ocean carbon sink from pCO2 mapping methods and decadal ocean inverse models generally agree on the magnitude and sign of decadal variability in the ocean CO2 sink at both global and regional scales. Simulations with ocean biogeochemical models confirm that climate variability drove the observed decadal trends in ocean CO2 uptake, but also demonstrate that the sensitivity of ocean CO2 uptake to climate variability may be too weak in models. Furthermore, all estimates point toward coherent decadal variability in the oceanic and terrestrial CO2 sinks, and this variability is not well-matched by current global vegetation models. Reconciling these differences will help to constrain the sensitivity of oceanic and terrestrial CO2 uptake to climate variability and lead to improved climate projections and decadal climate predictions.
    Description
    Author Posting. © National Academy of Sciences, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of National Academy of Sciences for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 116 (24), (2019):11646-11651, doi:10.1073/pnas.1900371116.
    Collections
    • Marine Chemistry and Geochemistry (MC&G)
    Suggested Citation
    DeVries, T., Le Quéré, C., Andrews, O., Berthet, S., Hauck, J., Ilyina, T., Landschützer, P., Lenton, A., Lima, I. D., Nowicki, M., Schwinger, J., & Séférian, R. (2019). Decadal trends in the ocean carbon sink. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116 (24), 11646-11651.
     

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