Surface drift prediction in the Adriatic Sea using hyper-ensemble statistics on atmospheric, ocean and wave models : uncertainties and probability distribution areas
MetadataShow full item record
KeywordForecast; Surface drift; Multi-model super-ensembles; Linear regression; Ocean models; Atmospheric models; Wave models
Despite numerous and regular improvements in underlying models, surface drift prediction in the ocean remains a challenging task because of our yet limited understanding of all processes involved. Hence, deterministic approaches to the problem are often limited by empirical assumptions on underlying physics. Multi-model hyper-ensemble forecasts, which exploit the power of an optimal local combination of available information including ocean, atmospheric and wave models, may show superior forecasting skills when compared to individual models because they allow for local correction and/or bias removal. In this work, we explore in greater detail the potential and limitations of the hyper-ensemble method in the Adriatic Sea, using a comprehensive surface drifter database. The performance of the hyper-ensembles and the individual models are discussed by analyzing associated uncertainties and probability distribution maps. Results suggest that the stochastic method may reduce position errors significantly for 12 to 72 h forecasts and hence compete with pure deterministic approaches.
Author Posting. © NATO Undersea Research Centre, 2007. This article is posted here by permission of NATO Undersea Research Centre for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Marine Systems 69 (2008): 86-98, doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2007.02.015.
Suggested CitationJournal of Marine Systems 69 (2008): 86-98
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Natural variability and anthropogenic trends in oceanic oxygen in a coupled carbon cycle–climate model ensemble Frolicher, T. L.; Joos, Fortunat; Plattner, Gian-Kasper; Steinacher, M.; Doney, Scott C. (American Geophysical Union, 2009-02-13)Internal and externally forced variability in oceanic oxygen (O2) are investigated on different spatiotemporal scales using a six-member ensemble from the National Center for Atmospheric Research CSM1.4-carbon coupled ...
Drift and mixing under the ocean surface : a coherent one-dimensional description with application to unstratified conditions Rascle, Nicolas; Ardhuin, Fabrice; Terray, Eugene A. (American Geophysical Union, 2006-03-24)Waves have many effects on near-surface dynamics: Breaking waves enhance mixing, waves are associated with a Lagrangian mean drift (the Stokes drift), waves act on the mean flow by creating Langmuir circulations and a ...
Richardson, Philip L.; McKee, Theresa K. (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, 1989-04)Ship drift velocity observations were used to calculate and plot monthly mean and yearly mean velocities in 2° latitude by 5° longitude boxes for the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans. The vector maps shown here provide ...