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    Climate variability, volcanic forcing, and last millennium hydroclimate extremes

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    jcli-d-17-0407.1.pdf (3.548Mb)
    Date
    2018-05-03
    Author
    Stevenson, Samantha  Concept link
    Overpeck, Jonathan T.  Concept link
    Fasullo, John T.  Concept link
    Coats, Sloan  Concept link
    Parsons, Luke A.  Concept link
    Otto-Bliesner, Bette  Concept link
    Ault, Toby  Concept link
    Loope, Garrison  Concept link
    Cole, Julia  Concept link
    Metadata
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    Citable URI
    https://hdl.handle.net/1912/10401
    As published
    https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0407.1
    DOI
    10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0407.1
    Keyword
     Drought; Climate variability; ENSO; Paleoclimate; Climate models; Multidecadal variability 
    Abstract
    Multidecadal hydroclimate variability has been expressed as “megadroughts” (dry periods more severe and prolonged than observed over the twentieth century) and corresponding “megapluvial” wet periods in many regions around the world. The risk of such events is strongly affected by modes of coupled atmosphere–ocean variability and by external impacts on climate. Accurately assessing the mechanisms for these interactions is difficult, since it requires large ensembles of millennial simulations as well as long proxy time series. Here, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Last Millennium Ensemble is used to examine statistical associations among megaevents, coupled climate modes, and forcing from major volcanic eruptions. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strongly affects hydroclimate extremes: larger ENSO amplitude reduces megadrought risk and persistence in the southwestern United States, the Sahel, monsoon Asia, and Australia, with corresponding increases in Mexico and the Amazon. The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) also alters megadrought risk, primarily in the Caribbean and the Amazon. Volcanic influences are felt primarily through enhancing AMO amplitude, as well as alterations in the structure of both ENSO and AMO teleconnections, which lead to differing manifestations of megadrought. These results indicate that characterizing hydroclimate variability requires an improved understanding of both volcanic climate impacts and variations in ENSO/AMO teleconnections.
    Description
    Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2018. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 31 (2018): 4309-4327, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0407.1.
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    • Geology and Geophysics (G&G)
    Suggested Citation
    Journal of Climate 31 (2018): 4309-4327
     

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