Are the impacts of land use on warming underestimated in climate policy?

dc.contributor.author Mahowald, Natalie M.
dc.contributor.author Ward, Daniel S.
dc.contributor.author Doney, Scott C.
dc.contributor.author Hess, Peter G.
dc.contributor.author Randerson, James T.
dc.date.accessioned 2017-10-11T16:35:34Z
dc.date.available 2017-10-11T16:31:35Z
dc.date.available 2017-10-11T16:35:34Z
dc.date.issued 2017-09-18
dc.description © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Environmental Research Letters 12 (2017): 094016, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa836d. en_US
dc.description.abstract While carbon dioxide emissions from energy use must be the primary target of climate change mitigation efforts, land use and land cover change (LULCC) also represent an important source of climate forcing. In this study we compute time series of global surface temperature change separately for LULCC and non-LULCC sources (primarily fossil fuel burning), and show that because of the extra warming associated with the co-emission of methane and nitrous oxide with LULCC carbon dioxide emissions, and a co-emission of cooling aerosols with non-LULCC emissions of carbon dioxide, the linear relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and temperature has a two-fold higher slope for LULCC than for non-LULCC activities. Moreover, projections used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the rate of tropical land conversion in the future are relatively low compared to contemporary observations, suggesting that the future projections of land conversion used in the IPCC may underestimate potential impacts of LULCC. By including a ‘business as usual’ future LULCC scenario for tropical deforestation, we find that even if all non-LULCC emissions are switched off in 2015, it is likely that 1.5 ◦C of warming relative to the preindustrial era will occur by 2100. Thus, policies to reduce LULCC emissions must remain a high priority if we are to achieve the low to medium temperature change targets proposed as a part of the Paris Agreement. Future studies using integrated assessment models and other climate simulations should include more realistic deforestation rates and the integration of policy that would reduce LULCC emissions. en_US
dc.description.sponsorship We would like to acknowledge the support from grants NSF-ATM1049033, NSF-CCF-1522054, NSFAGS- 1048827 and DOE-SC0016362, DOE Office of Science Biogeochemical Cycles Feedbacks and ACME Science Focus Areas as well as assistance from the Atkinson Center for a Sustainable Future en_US
dc.identifier.citation Environmental Research Letters 12 (2017): 094016 en_US
dc.identifier.doi 10.1088/1748-9326/aa836d
dc.identifier.uri https://hdl.handle.net/1912/9295
dc.language.iso en_US en_US
dc.publisher IOP Publishing en_US
dc.relation.uri https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa836d
dc.rights Attribution 3.0 Unported
dc.rights.uri https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
dc.subject Land use en_US
dc.subject Climate change en_US
dc.subject Agriculture en_US
dc.subject Deforestation en_US
dc.title Are the impacts of land use on warming underestimated in climate policy? en_US
dc.type Article en_US
dspace.entity.type Publication
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