Chen Zhuomin

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  • Article
    Interannual variability of the Mid-Atlantic bight cold pool
    (American Geophysical Union, 2020-08-03) Chen, Zhuomin ; Curchitser, Enrique N.
    The Mid‐Atlantic Bight (MAB) Cold Pool is a bottom‐trapped, cold (temperature below 10°C) and fresh (practical salinity below 34) water mass that is isolated from the surface by the seasonal thermocline and is located over the midshelf and outer shelf of the MAB. The interannual variability of the Cold Pool with regard to its persistence time, volume, temperature, and seasonal along‐shelf propagation is investigated based on a long‐term (1958–2007) high‐resolution regional model of the northwest Atlantic Ocean. A Cold Pool Index is defined and computed in order to quantify the strength of the Cold Pool on the interannual timescale. Anomalous strong, weak, and normal years are categorized and compared based on the Cold Pool Index. A detailed quantitative study of the volume‐averaged heat budget of the Cold Pool region (CPR) has been examined on the interannual timescale. Results suggest that the initial temperature and abnormal warming/cooling due to advection are the primary drivers in the interannual variability of the near‐bottom CPR temperature anomaly during stratified seasons. The long persistence of temperature anomalies from winter to summer in the CPR also suggests a potential for seasonal predictability.
  • Article
    Long-term SST variability on the Northwest Atlantic continental shelf and slope
    (American Geophysical Union, 2020-01-06) Chen, Zhuomin ; Kwon, Young-Oh ; Chen, Ke ; Fratantoni, Paula S. ; Gawarkiewicz, Glen G. ; Joyce, Terrence M.
    The meridional coherence, connectivity, and regional inhomogeneity in long‐term sea surface temperature (SST) variability over the Northwest Atlantic continental shelf and slope from 1982–2018 are investigated using observational data sets. A meridionally concurrent large SST warming trend is identified as the dominant signal over the length of the continental shelf and slope between Cape Hatteras in North Carolina and Cape Chidley, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada. The linear trends are 0.37 ± 0.06 and 0.39 ± 0.06 °C/decade for the shelf and slope regions, respectively. These meridionally averaged SST time series over the shelf and slope are consistent with each other and across multiple longer observational data sets with records dating back to 1900. The coherence between the long‐term meridionally averaged time series over the shelf and slope and basin‐wide averaged SST in the North Atlantic implies approximately two thirds of the warming trend during 1982–2018 may be attributed to natural climate variability and the rest to externally forced change including anthropogenic warming.
  • Article
    Mixed layer depth climatology over the northeast US continental shelf (1993-2018)
    (Elsevier, 2021-11-17) Cai, Cassia ; Kwon, Young-Oh ; Chen, Zhuomin ; Fratantoni, Paula S.
    The Northeast U.S. (NEUS) continental shelf has experienced rapid warming in recent decades. Over the NEUS continental shelf, the circulation and annual cycle of heating and cooling lead to local variability of water properties. The mixed layer depth (MLD) is a key factor that determines the amount of upper ocean warming. A detailed description of the MLD, particularly its seasonal cycle and spatial patterns, has not been developed for the NEUS continental shelf. We compute the MLD using an observational dataset from the Northeast Fisheries Science Center hydrographic monitoring program. The MLD exhibits clear seasonal cycles across five eco-regions on the NEUS continental shelf, with maxima in January–March and minima in July or August. The seasonal cycle is largest in the western Gulf of Maine (71.9 ± 24.4 m), and smallest in the southern Mid-Atlantic Bight (34.0 ± 7.3 m). Spatial variations are seasonally dependent, with greatest homogeneity in summer. Interannual variability dominates long-term linear trends in most regions and seasons. To evaluate the sensitivity of our results, we compare the MLDs calculated using a 0.03 kg/m3 density threshold with those using a 0.2 °C temperature threshold. Temperature-based MLDs are generally consistent with density-based MLDs, although a small number of temperature-based MLDs are biased deep compared to density-based MLDs particularly in spring and fall. Finally, we compare observational MLDs to the MLDs from a high-resolution ocean reanalysis GLORYS12V1. While the mean values of GLORYS12V1 MLDs compare well with the observed MLDs, their interannual variability are not highly correlated, particularly in summer. These results can be a starting point for future studies on the drivers of temporal and spatial MLD variability on the NEUS continental shelf.
  • Article
    Seasonal prediction of bottom temperature on the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf
    (American Geophysical Union, 2021-05-03) Chen, Zhuomin ; Kwon, Young-Oh ; Chen, Ke ; Fratantoni, Paula S. ; Gawarkiewicz, Glen G. ; Joyce, Terrence M. ; Miller, Timothy J. ; Nye, Janet A. ; Saba, Vincent S. ; Stock, Brian C.
    The Northeast U.S. shelf (NES) is an oceanographically dynamic marine ecosystem and supports some of the most valuable demersal fisheries in the world. A reliable prediction of NES environmental variables, particularly ocean bottom temperature, could lead to a significant improvement in demersal fisheries management. However, the current generation of climate model-based seasonal-to-interannual predictions exhibits limited prediction skill in this continental shelf environment. Here, we have developed a hierarchy of statistical seasonal predictions for NES bottom temperatures using an eddy-resolving ocean reanalysis data set. A simple, damped local persistence prediction model produces significant skill for lead times up to ∼5 months in the Mid-Atlantic Bight and up to ∼10 months in the Gulf of Maine, although the prediction skill varies notably by season. Considering temperature from a nearby or upstream (i.e., more poleward) region as an additional predictor generally improves prediction skill, presumably as a result of advective processes. Large-scale atmospheric and oceanic indices, such as Gulf Stream path indices (GSIs) and the North Atlantic Oscillation Index, are also tested as predictors for NES bottom temperatures. Only the GSI constructed from temperature observed at 200 m depth significantly improves the prediction skill relative to local persistence. However, the prediction skill from this GSI is not larger than that gained using models incorporating nearby or upstream shelf/slope temperatures. Based on these results, a simplified statistical model has been developed, which can be tailored to fisheries management for the NES.
  • Article
    Role of air-sea heat flux on the transformation of Atlantic Water encircling the Nordic Seas
    (Nature Research, 2023-01-10) Huang, Jie ; Pickart, Robert S. ; Chen, Zhuomin ; Huang, Rui Xin
    The warm-to-cold densification of Atlantic Water (AW) around the perimeter of the Nordic Seas is a critical component of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, it remains unclear how ongoing changes in air-sea heat flux impact this transformation. Here we use observational data, and a one-dimensional mixing model following the flow, to investigate the role of air-sea heat flux on the cooling of AW. We focus on the Norwegian Atlantic Slope Current (NwASC) and Front Current (NwAFC), where the primary transformation of AW occurs. We find that air-sea heat flux accounts almost entirely for the net cooling of AW along the NwAFC, while oceanic lateral heat transfer appears to dominate the temperature change along the NwASC. Such differing impacts of air-sea interaction, which explain the contrasting long-term changes in the net cooling along two AW branches since the 1990s, need to be considered when understanding the AMOC variability.