van Hengstum Peter J.

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van Hengstum

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Peter J.

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0000-0002-1125-2858

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Revising evidence of hurricane strikes on Abaco Island (the Bahamas) over the last 700 years

(Nature Research, 2020-10-06) Winkler, Tyler S. ; van Hengstum, Peter J. ; Donnelly, Jeffrey P. ; Wallace, Elizabeth J. ; Sullivan, Richard M. ; MacDonald, Dana ; Albury, Nancy A.

The northern Bahamas have experienced more frequent intense-hurricane impacts than almost anywhere else in the Atlantic since 1850 CE. In 2019, category 5 (Saffir-Simpson scale) Hurricane Dorian demonstrated the destructive potential of these natural hazards. Problematically, determining whether high hurricane activity levels remained constant through time is difficult given the short observational record (< 170 years). We present a 700-year long, near-annually resolved stratigraphic record of hurricane passage near Thatchpoint Blue Hole (TPBH) on Abaco Island, The Bahamas. Using longer sediment cores (888 cm) and more reliable age-control, this study revises and temporally expands a previous study from TPBH that underestimated the sedimentation rate. TPBH records at least 13 ≥ category 2 hurricanes per century between 1500 to 1670 CE, which exceeds the 9 ≥ category 2 hurricanes per century within 50 km of TPBH since 1850 CE. The eastern United States also experienced frequent hurricanes from 1500 to 1670 CE, but frequency was depressed elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean. This suggests that spatial heterogeneity in Atlantic hurricane activity since 1850 CE could have persisted throughout the last millennium. This heterogeneity is impacted by climatic and stochastic forcing, but additional high-resolution paleo-hurricane reconstructions are required to assess the mechanisms that impact regional variability.
Human arrival and landscape dynamics in the northern Bahamas

(National Academy of Sciences, 2021-03-09) Fall, Patricia L. ; van Hengstum, Peter J. ; Lavold-Foote, Lisa ; Donnelly, Jeffrey P. ; Albury, Nancy A. ; Tamalavage, Anne E.

The first Caribbean settlers were Amerindians from South America. Great Abaco and Grand Bahama, the final islands colonized in the northernmost Bahamas, were inhabited by the Lucayans when Europeans arrived. The timing of Lucayan arrival in the northern Bahamas has been uncertain because direct archaeological evidence is limited. We document Lucayan arrival on Great Abaco Island through a detailed record of vegetation, fire, and landscape dynamics based on proxy data from Blackwood Sinkhole. From about 3,000 to 1,000 y ago, forests dominated by hardwoods and palms were resilient to the effects of hurricanes and cooling sea surface temperatures. The arrival of Lucayans by about 830 CE (2σ range: 720 to 920 CE) is demarcated by increased burning and followed by landscape disturbance and a time-transgressive shift from hardwoods and palms to the modern pine forest. Considering that Lucayan settlements in the southern Bahamian archipelago are dated to about 750 CE (2σ range: 600 to 900 CE), these results demonstrate that Lucayans spread rapidly through the archipelago in less than 100 y. Although precontact landscapes would have been influenced by storms and climatic trends, the most pronounced changes follow more directly from landscape burning and ecosystem shifts after Lucayan arrival. The pine forests of Abaco declined substantially between 1500 and 1670 CE, a period of increased regional hurricane activity, coupled with fires on an already human-impacted landscape. Any future intensification of hurricane activity in the tropical North Atlantic Ocean threatens the sustainability of modern pine forests in the northern Bahamas.
Climate forcing of unprecedented intense-hurricane activity in the last 2000 years

(John Wiley & Sons, 2015-02-23) Donnelly, Jeffrey P. ; Hawkes, Andrea D. ; Lane, D. Philip ; MacDonald, Dana ; Shuman, Bryan N. ; Toomey, Michael R. ; van Hengstum, Peter J. ; Woodruff, Jonathan D.

How climate controls hurricane variability has critical implications for society is not well understood. In part, our understanding is hampered by the short and incomplete observational hurricane record. Here we present a synthesis of intense-hurricane activity from the western North Atlantic over the past two millennia, which is supported by a new, exceptionally well-resolved record from Salt Pond, Massachusetts (USA). At Salt Pond, three coarse grained event beds deposited in the historical interval are consistent with severe hurricanes in 1991 (Bob), 1675, and 1635 C.E., and provide modern analogs for 32 other prehistoric event beds. Two intervals of heightened frequency of event bed deposition between 1400 and 1675 C.E. (10 events) and 150 and 1150 C.E. (23 events), represent the local expression of coherent regional patterns in intense-hurricane–induced event beds. Our synthesis indicates that much of the western North Atlantic appears to have been active between 250 and 1150 C.E., with high levels of activity persisting in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico until 1400 C.E. This interval was one with relatively warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the main development region (MDR). A shift in activity to the North American east coast occurred ca. 1400 C.E., with more frequent severe hurricane strikes recorded from The Bahamas to New England between 1400 and 1675 C.E. A warm SST anomaly along the western North Atlantic, rather than within the MDR, likely contributed to the later active interval being restricted to the east coast.
The intertropical convergence zone modulates intense hurricane strikes on the western North Atlantic margin

(Nature Publishing Group, 2016-02-24) van Hengstum, Peter J. ; Donnelly, Jeffrey P. ; Fall, Patricia L. ; Toomey, Michael R. ; Albury, Nancy A. ; Kakuk, Brian

Most Atlantic hurricanes form in the Main Development Region between 9°N to 20°N along the northern edge of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Previous research has suggested that meridional shifts in the ITCZ position on geologic timescales can modulate hurricane activity, but continuous and long-term storm records are needed from multiple sites to assess this hypothesis. Here we present a 3000 year record of intense hurricane strikes in the northern Bahamas (Abaco Island) based on overwash deposits in a coastal sinkhole, which indicates that the ITCZ has likely helped modulate intense hurricane strikes on the western North Atlantic margin on millennial to centennial-scales. The new reconstruction closely matches a previous reconstruction from Puerto Rico, and documents a period of elevated intense hurricane activity on the western North Atlantic margin from 2500 to 1000 years ago when paleo precipitation proxies suggest that the ITCZ occupied a more northern position. Considering that anthropogenic warming is predicted to be focused in the northern hemisphere in the coming century, these results provide a prehistoric analog that an attendant northern ITCZ shift in the future may again return the western North Atlantic margin to an active hurricane interval.
Low-frequency storminess signal at Bermuda linked to cooling events in the North Atlantic region

(John Wiley & Sons, 2015-02-18) van Hengstum, Peter J. ; Donnelly, Jeffrey P. ; Kingston, Andrew W. ; Williams, Bruce E. ; Scott, David B. ; Reinhardt, Eduard G. ; Little, Shawna N. ; Patterson, William P.

North Atlantic climate archives provide evidence for increased storm activity during the Little Ice Age (150 to 600 calibrated years (cal years) B.P.) and centered at 1700 and 3000 cal years B.P., typically in centennial-scale sedimentary records. Meteorological (tropical versus extratropical storms) and climate forcings of this signal remain poorly understood, although variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are frequently hypothesized to be involved. Here we present records of late Holocene storminess and coastal temperature change from a Bermudian submarine cave that is hydrographically circulated with the coastal ocean. Thermal variability in the cave is documented by stable oxygen isotope values of cave benthic foraminifera, which document a close linkage between regional temperature change and NAO phasing during the late Holocene. However, erosion of terrestrial sediment into the submarine cave provides a “storminess signal” that correlates with higher-latitude storminess archives and broader North Atlantic cooling events. Understanding the driver of this storminess signal will require higher-resolution storm records to disentangle the contribution of tropical versus extratropical cyclones and a better understanding of cyclone activity during hemispheric cooling periods. Most importantly, however, the signal in Bermuda appears more closely correlated with proxy-based evidence for subtle AMOC reductions than NAO phasing.
Ecology of foraminifera and habitat variability in an underwater cave : distinguishing anchialine versus submarine cave environments

(Cushman Foundation for Foraminiferal Research, 2011-07) van Hengstum, Peter J. ; Scott, David B.

Seventy-five surface (<4 cm) sediment samples were collected throughout Green Bay Cave System, Bermuda to investigate foraminiferal ecology and habitat variability in underwater coastal caves. This cave is ideal for studying different cave environments because it consists of an anchia-line cave environment connected to a submarine cave environment. Each sediment sample was analyzed for foraminifera, {delta}13Corg, C:N, organic matter content, CaCO3, and granulometry. Measurements of pH, salinity, dissolved oxygen, and temperature in the coastal aquifer distinguished the meteoric lens and saline groundwater. Q-mode cluster analysis on the foraminifera produced a dendrogram that segregates the anchialine and submarine cave environments, and subdivides each environment into distinct habitats consistent with local hydrogeology and sedimentology. The anchialine cave environment near the sinkhole is characterized by two groups of foraminifera: 1) the Meteoric Lens Assemblage living in the brackish meteoric lens within 60 cm of sea level, and 2) the Anchialine Cave Assemblage living in the saline groundwater. Helenina anderseni, Discorinopsis aguayoi, and other marsh foraminifera can persist in the brackish meteoric lens, which transitions into a more diverse assemblage dominated by Bolivina striatula and Rosalina globularis below the halocline. The boundary between the anchialine (terrestrially dominated) and submarine cave (marine-dominated) environments is demarcated by gross foraminiferal and sedimentary changes ({delta}13Corg from –24{per thousand} to –18{per thousand}, C:N from 11.2 to 8.3) that correspond to the maximum point where terrestrial influences routinely impact the cave benthos. Three assemblages of foraminifera inhabit the submarine cave environment: 1) the Entrance Assemblage in the first ~60 m of the submarine cave, dominated by Quinqueloculina; 2) the Circulated Submarine Cave Assemblage dominated by Spirillina vivipara and Triloculina oblonga, and 3) the Isolated Submarine Cave Assemblage dominated by Spirophthalmidium emaciatum. Planktic tintinnids suggest that tidally forced saline groundwater circulation is transporting more nutrients and particulate organic matter to the Circulated Submarine Cave Assemblage than the Isolated Submarine Cave Assemblage. These results indicate that coastal caves are partitioned into specific environments that can be further subdivided into habitats by groundwater masses, sediment fluxes (terrestrial versus marine), and groundwater circulation. This implies that that cave foraminifera can be useful paleohydrogeologic, paleoclimatic, and Quaternary sea-level proxies.
Reconstructing 7000 years of North Atlantic hurricane variability using deep-sea sediment cores from the western Great Bahama Bank

(John Wiley & Sons, 2013-03-14) Toomey, Michael R. ; Curry, William B. ; Donnelly, Jeffrey P. ; van Hengstum, Peter J.

Available overwash records from coastal barrier systems document significant variability in North Atlantic hurricane activity during the late Holocene. The same climate forcings that may have controlled cyclone activity over this interval (e.g., the West African Monsoon, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)) show abrupt changes around 6000 yrs B.P., but most coastal sedimentary records do not span this time period. Establishing longer records is essential for understanding mid-Holocene patterns of storminess and their climatic drivers, which will lead to better forecasting of how climate change over the next century may affect tropical cyclone frequency and intensity. Storms are thought to be an important mechanism for transporting coarse sediment from shallow carbonate platforms to the deep-sea, and bank-edge sediments may offer an unexplored archive of long-term hurricane activity. Here, we develop this new approach, reconstructing more than 7000 years of North Atlantic hurricane variability using coarse-grained deposits in sediment cores from the leeward margin of the Great Bahama Bank. High energy event layers within the resulting archive are (1) broadly correlated throughout an offbank transect of multi-cores, (2) closely matched with historic hurricane events, and (3) synchronous with previous intervals of heightened North Atlantic hurricane activity in overwash reconstructions from Puerto Rico and elsewhere in the Bahamas. Lower storm frequency prior to 4400 yrs B.P. in our records suggests that precession and increased NH summer insolation may have greatly limited hurricane potential intensity, outweighing weakened ENSO and a stronger West African Monsoon—factors thought to be favorable for hurricane development.
Intense hurricane activity over the past 1500 years at South Andros Island, the Bahamas

(American Geophysical Union, 2019-10-19) Wallace, Elizabeth J. ; Donnelly, Jeffrey P. ; van Hengstum, Peter J. ; Wiman, Charlotte ; Sullivan, Richard M. ; Winkler, Tyler S. ; D'Entremont, Nicole ; Toomey, Michael R. ; Albury, Nancy A.

Hurricanes cause substantial loss of life and resources in coastal areas. Unfortunately, historical hurricane records are too short and incomplete to capture hurricane‐climate interactions on multi‐decadal and longer timescales. Coarse‐grained, hurricane‐induced deposits preserved in blue holes in the Caribbean can provide records of past hurricane activity extending back thousands of years. Here we present a high resolution record of intense hurricane events over the past 1500 years from a blue hole on South Andros Island on the Great Bahama Bank. This record is corroborated by shorter reconstructions from cores collected at two nearby blue holes. The record contains coarse‐grained event deposits attributable to known historical hurricane strikes within age uncertainties. Over the past 1500 years, South Andros shows evidence of four active periods of hurricane activity. None of these active intervals occurred in the past 163 years. We suggest that Intertropical Convergence Zone position modulates hurricane activity on the island based on a correlation with Cariaco Basin titanium concentrations. An anomalous gap in activity on South Andros Island in the early 13th century corresponds to a period of increased volcanism. The patterns of hurricane activity reconstructed from South Andros Island closely match those from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico but are anti‐phased with records from New England. We suggest that either changes in local environmental conditions (e.g., SSTs) or a northeastward shift in storm tracks can account for the increased activity in the western North Atlantic when the Gulf of Mexico and southeastern Caribbean are less active.
Increased hurricane frequency near Florida during Younger Dryas Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slowdown

( 2017-10) Toomey, Michael R. ; Korty, Robert ; Donnelly, Jeffrey P. ; van Hengstum, Peter ; Curry, William B.

The risk posed by intensification of North Atlantic hurricane activity remains controversial, in part due to a lack of available storm proxy records that extend beyond the relatively stable climates of the late Holocene. Here we present a record of storm-triggered turbidite deposition offshore the Dry Tortugas, south Florida, USA, that spans abrupt transitions in North Atlantic sea-surface temperature and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the Younger Dryas (12.9–11.7 k.y. B.P.). Despite potentially hostile conditions for cyclogenesis in the tropical North Atlantic at this time, our record and numerical experiments suggest that strong hurricanes may have regularly impacted Florida. Less severe surface cooling at mid-latitudes (~20–40°N) than across much of the tropical North Atlantic (~10–20°N) in response to AMOC reduction may best explain strong hurricane activity during the Younger Dryas near the Dry Tortugas and, potentially, along the entire southeastern coast of the United States.
Hydroclimate dipole drives multi-centennial variability in the western tropical North Atlantic Margin during the middle and late Holocene

(American Geophysical Union, 2021-07-05) Sullivan, Richard M. ; van Hengstum, Peter J. ; Coats, Sloan ; Donnelly, Jeffrey P. ; Tamalavage, Anne E. ; Winkler, Tyler S. ; Albury, Nancy A.

Meridional shifts of the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH) western edge create a dipole that drives hydroclimate variability in the southeastern United States and Caribbean region. Southwest displacements suppress rainfall in the southern Caribbean. Northwest displacements drive southeast United States and northern Caribbean drying. Projections for the 21st century suggest a more meridionally displaced NASH, which jeopardizes Caribbean island communities dependent on rain-fed aquifers. While recent work indicates that Atlantic and Pacific Ocean-atmosphere variability influenced the NASH during the instrumental period, little is known about NASH behavior and subsequent hydroclimate responses over longer timescales. To address this limitation, we developed a ∼6000-years long rainfall record through the analysis of calcite raft deposits archived within sediments from a coastal sinkhole in the northeast Bahamas (Abaco Island). Increased (decreased) calcite raft deposition provides evidence for increased (decreased) rainfall driven by NASH variability. We use simulations from the Community Earth System Model to support this interpretation. These simulations improve our understanding of NASH behavior on timescales congruous with the reconstruction and suggest an important role for the state of the Pacific Ocean. Furthermore, model simulations and a compilation of regional hydroclimate reconstructions reveal that the NASH-driven dipole dominates northern and southern Caribbean rainfall on centennial timescales. These results bring Holocene Caribbean hydroclimate variability into sharper focus while providing important context for present and future changes to regional climate. Additionally, this study highlights the need for improved future predictions of the state of the Pacific Ocean to best inform water scarcity mitigation strategies for at-risk Caribbean communities.
1,050 years of hurricane strikes on Long Island in the Bahamas

(American Geophysical Union, 2016-02-16) Wallace, Elizabeth J. ; Donnelly, Jeffrey P. ; van Hengstum, Peter J. ; Winkler, Tyler S. ; McKeon, Kelly ; MacDonald, Dana ; D'Entremont, Nicole ; Sullivan, Richard M. ; Woodruff, Jonathan D. ; Hawkes, Andrea D. ; Maio, Christopher V.

Sedimentary records of past hurricane activity indicate centennial-scale periods over the past millennium with elevated hurricane activity. The search for the underlying mechanism behind these active hurricane periods is confounded by regional variations in their timing. Here, we present a new high resolution paleohurricane record from The Bahamas with a synthesis of published North Atlantic records over the past millennium. We reconstruct hurricane strikes over the past 1,050 years in sediment cores from a blue hole on Long Island in The Bahamas. Coarse-grained deposits in these cores date to the close passage of seven hurricanes over the historical interval. We find that the intensity and angle of approach of these historical storms plays an important role in inducing storm surge near the site. Our new record indicates four active hurricane periods on Long Island that conflict with published records on neighboring islands (Andros and Abaco Island). We demonstrate these three islands do not sample the same storms despite their proximity, and we compile these reconstructions together to create the first regional compilation of annually resolved paleohurricane records in The Bahamas. Integrating our Bahamian compilation with compiled records from the U.S. coastline indicates basin-wide increased storminess during the Medieval Warm Period. Afterward, the hurricane patterns in our Bahamian compilation match those reconstructed along the U.S. East Coast but not in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This disconnect may result from shifts in local environmental conditions in the North Atlantic or shifts in hurricane populations from straight-moving to recurving storms over the past millennium.
Unique habitat for benthic foraminifera in subtidal blue holes on carbonate platforms

(Frontiers Media, 2021-12-22) Little, Shawna N. ; van Hengstum, Peter J. ; Beddows, Patricia A. ; Donnelly, Jeffrey P. ; Winkler, Tyler S. ; Albury, Nancy A.

Dissolution of carbonate platforms, like The Bahamas, throughout Quaternary sea-level oscillations have created mature karst landscapes that can include sinkholes and off-shore blue holes. These karst features are flooded by saline oceanic waters and meteoric-influenced groundwaters, which creates unique groundwater environments and ecosystems. Little is known about the modern benthic meiofauna, like foraminifera, in these environments or how internal hydrographic characteristics of salinity, dissolved oxygen, or pH may influence benthic habitat viability. Here we compare the total benthic foraminiferal distributions in sediment-water interface samples collected from <2 m water depth on the carbonate tidal flats, and the two subtidal blue holes Freshwater River Blue Hole and Meredith’s Blue Hole, on the leeward margin of Great Abaco Island, The Bahamas. All samples are dominated by miliolid foraminifera (i.e., Quinqueloculina and Triloculina), yet notable differences emerge in the secondary taxa between these two environments that allows identification of two assemblages: a Carbonate Tidal Flats Assemblage (CTFA) vs. a Blue Hole Assemblage (BHA). The CTFA includes abundant common shallow-water lagoon foraminifera (e.g., Peneroplis, Rosalina, Rotorbis), while the BHA has higher proportions of foraminifera that are known to tolerate stressful environmental conditions of brackish and dysoxic waters elsewhere (e.g., Pseudoeponides, Cribroelphidium, Ammonia). We also observe how the hydrographic differences between subtidal blue holes can promote different benthic habitats for foraminifera, and this is observed through differences in both agglutinated and hyaline fauna. The unique hydrographic conditions in subtidal blue holes make them great laboratories for assessing the response of benthic foraminiferal communities to extreme environmental conditions (e.g., low pH, dysoxia).
Historically unprecedented Northern Gulf of Mexico hurricane activity from 650 to 1250 CE

(Nature Research, 2020-11-05) Rodysill, Jessica R. ; Donnelly, Jeffrey P. ; Sullivan, Richard M. ; Lane, D. Philip ; Toomey, Michael R. ; Woodruff, Jonathan D. ; Hawkes, Andrea D. ; MacDonald, Dana ; D'Entremont, Nicole ; McKeon, Kelly ; Wallace, Elizabeth J. ; van Hengstum, Peter J.

Hurricane Michael (2018) was the first Category 5 storm on record to make landfall on the Florida panhandle since at least 1851 CE (Common Era), and it resulted in the loss of 59 lives and $25 billion in damages across the southeastern U.S. This event placed a spotlight on recent intense (exceeding Category 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) hurricane landfalls, prompting questions about the natural range in variability of hurricane activity that the instrumental record is too short to address. Of particular interest is determining whether the frequency of recent intense hurricane landfalls in the northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is within or outside the natural range of intense hurricane activity prior to 1851 CE. In this study, we identify intense hurricane landfalls in northwest Florida during the past 2000 years based on coarse anomaly event detection from two coastal lacustrine sediment archives. We identified a historically unprecedented period of heightened storm activity common to four Florida panhandle localities from 650 to 1250 CE and a shift to a relatively quiescent storm climate in the GOM spanning the past six centuries. Our study provides long-term context for events like Hurricane Michael and suggests that the observational period 1851 CE to present may underrepresent the natural range in landfalling hurricane activity.
A hydraulic modelling approach to study flood sediment deposition in floodplain lakes

(Wiley, 2022-11-21) Reinders, Joeri B. ; Sullivan, Richard M. ; Winkler, Tyler S. ; van Hengstum, Peter J. ; Beighley, R. Edward ; Munoz, Samuel E.

Abstract Abandoned river channels on alluvial floodplains represent areas where sediments, organic matter, and pollutants preferentially accumulate during overbank flooding. Theoretical models describing sedimentation in floodplain lakes recognize the different stages in their evolution, where the threshold for hydrological connectivity increases in older lakes as a plug-bar develops. Sedimentary archives collected from floodplain lakes are widely used to reconstruct ecological and hydrological dynamics in riverine settings, but how floodplain lake evolution influences flow velocities and sedimentation patterns on an event scale remains poorly understood. Here we combine sediment samples collected in and around a floodplain lake with hydraulic modelling simulations to examine inundation, flow velocity, and sedimentation patterns in a floodplain lake along the Trinity River at Liberty, Texas. We focus our analyses on an extreme flood event associated with the landfall of Hurricane Harvey in August 2017 and develop a series of alternative lake bathymetries to examine the influence of floodplain lake evolution on flow velocity patterns during the flood. We find that sediments deposited in the lake after the Hurricane Harvey flood become thinner and finer with distance from the tie-channel in accordance with simulated flow velocities that drop with distance from the tie-channel. Flow velocity simulations from model runs with alternative plug-bar geometries and lake depths imply that sedimentation patterns will shift as the lake evolves and infills. The integration of sediment sampling and hydraulic model simulations provides a method to understand the processes that govern sedimentation in floodplain lakes during flood events that will improve interpretations of individual events in sedimentary archives from these contexts.
More Frequent Hurricane Passage Across the Bahamian Archipelago During the Little Ice Age

(American Geophysical Union, 2023-11-21) Winkler, Tyler S. ; van Hengstum, Peter J. ; Donnelly, Jeffrey P. ; Wallace, Elizabeth Jane ; Albury, Nancy A. ; D'Entremont, Nicole ; Hawkes, Andrea D. ; Maio, Christopher V. ; Roberts, J. ; Sullivan, Richard M. ; Woodruff, Jonathan D.

The year 2020 Common Era (CE) experienced the highest number of named tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean since 1850 CE, but the short instrumental record makes it challenging to assess if this level of activity is statistically meaningful. Here, we present two near-annually resolved hurricane reconstructions from sediment archived in two blue holes located only 300 m apart on the northern margin of Grand Bahama. These two blue holes provide a replicated signal of hurricanes passing within a 50–100 km radius over the last 1,800 years, and the long-term reconstructions document multiple 50-to-150-year intervals when hurricane frequency was significantly higher than it has been over the last 100 years. These two records were first merged into a single stack, and then compiled with five other high-resolution reconstructions from across the Bahamian Archipelago to form a single 1500-year record of Bahamian hurricane frequency. This new Bahamian Compilation documents more hurricanes passing ∼75°W from 21°N to 26°N during the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1300–1850 CE) relative to the prior millennium and the last 170 years. The US Eastern Seaboard also experienced heightened hurricane activity during the LIA, whereas the Gulf of Mexico and Southern Caribbean were inactive. This suggests that despite a globally cooler climate, regional climate conditions during the LIA remained favorable for cyclogenesis and intensification along certain Atlantic hurricane pathways. Perhaps heightened Sahel rainfall during the LIA indicates an increase in African Easterly waves, which in turn possibly seeded more tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Main Development Region.
Last millennium hurricane activity linked to endogenous climate variability

(Nature Research, 2024-01-27) Yang, Wenchang ; Wallace, Elizabeth J. ; Vecchi, Gabriel A. ; Donnelly, Jeffrey P. ; Emile-Geay, Julien ; Hakim, Gregory J. ; Horowitz, Larry W. ; Sullivan, Richard M. ; Tardif, Robert ; van Hengstum, Peter J. ; Winkler, Tyler S.

Despite increased Atlantic hurricane risk, projected trends in hurricane frequency in the warming climate are still highly uncertain, mainly due to short instrumental record that limits our understanding of hurricane activity and its relationship to climate. Here we extend the record to the last millennium using two independent estimates: a reconstruction from sedimentary paleohurricane records and a statistical model of hurricane activity using sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We find statistically significant agreement between the two estimates and the late 20th century hurricane frequency is within the range seen over the past millennium. Numerical simulations using a hurricane-permitting climate model suggest that hurricane activity was likely driven by endogenous climate variability and linked to anomalous SSTs of warm Atlantic and cold Pacific. Volcanic eruptions can induce peaks in hurricane activity, but such peaks would likely be too weak to be detected in the proxy record due to large endogenous variability.

van Hengstum Peter J.

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