Mariotti Annarita

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Mariotti
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Annarita
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  • Article
    North American climate in CMIP5 experiments. Part II: evaluation of historical simulations of intraseasonal to decadal variability
    (American Meteorological Society, 2013-12-01) Sheffield, Justin ; Camargo, Suzana J. ; Fu, Rong ; Hu, Qi ; Jiang, Xianan ; Johnson, Nathaniel ; Karnauskas, Kristopher B. ; Kim, Seon Tae ; Kinter, Jim ; Kumar, Sanjiv ; Langenbrunner, Baird ; Maloney, Eric ; Mariotti, Annarita ; Meyerson, Joyce E. ; Neelin, J. David ; Nigam, Sumant ; Pan, Zaitao ; Ruiz-Barradas, Alfredo ; Seager, Richard ; Serra, Yolande L. ; Sun, De-Zheng ; Wang, Chunzai ; Xie, Shang-Ping ; Yu, Jin-Yi ; Zhang, Tao ; Zhao, Ming
    This is the second part of a three-part paper on North American climate in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that evaluates the twentieth-century simulations of intraseasonal to multidecadal variability and teleconnections with North American climate. Overall, the multimodel ensemble does reasonably well at reproducing observed variability in several aspects, but it does less well at capturing observed teleconnections, with implications for future projections examined in part three of this paper. In terms of intraseasonal variability, almost half of the models examined can reproduce observed variability in the eastern Pacific and most models capture the midsummer drought over Central America. The multimodel mean replicates the density of traveling tropical synoptic-scale disturbances but with large spread among the models. On the other hand, the coarse resolution of the models means that tropical cyclone frequencies are underpredicted in the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific. The frequency and mean amplitude of ENSO are generally well reproduced, although teleconnections with North American climate are widely varying among models and only a few models can reproduce the east and central Pacific types of ENSO and connections with U.S. winter temperatures. The models capture the spatial pattern of Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) variability and its influence on continental temperature and West Coast precipitation but less well for the wintertime precipitation. The spatial representation of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) is reasonable, but the magnitude of SST anomalies and teleconnections are poorly reproduced. Multidecadal trends such as the warming hole over the central–southeastern United States and precipitation increases are not replicated by the models, suggesting that observed changes are linked to natural variability.
  • Article
    Seasonal-to-interannual prediction of North American coastal marine ecosystems: forecast methods, mechanisms of predictability, and priority developments
    (Elsevier, 2020-02-20) Jacox, Michael ; Alexander, Michael A. ; Siedlecki, Samantha A. ; Chen, Ke ; Kwon, Young-Oh ; Brodie, Stephanie ; Ortiz, Ivonne ; Tommasi, Desiree ; Widlansky, Matthew J. ; Barrie, Daniel ; Capotondi, Antonietta ; Cheng, Wei ; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele ; Edwards, Christopher ; Fiechter, Jerome ; Fratantoni, Paula S. ; Hazen, Elliott L. ; Hermann, Albert J. ; Kumar, Arun ; Miller, Arthur J. ; Pirhalla, Douglas ; Pozo Buil, Mercedes ; Ray, Sulagna ; Sheridan, Scott ; Subramanian, Aneesh C. ; Thompson, Philip ; Thorne, Lesley ; Annamalai, Hariharasubramanian ; Aydin, Kerim ; Bograd, Steven ; Griffis, Roger B. ; Kearney, Kelly ; Kim, Hyemi ; Mariotti, Annarita ; Merrifield, Mark ; Rykaczewski, Ryan R.
    Marine ecosystem forecasting is an area of active research and rapid development. Promise has been shown for skillful prediction of physical, biogeochemical, and ecological variables on a range of timescales, suggesting potential for forecasts to aid in the management of living marine resources and coastal communities. However, the mechanisms underlying forecast skill in marine ecosystems are often poorly understood, and many forecasts, especially for biological variables, rely on empirical statistical relationships developed from historical observations. Here, we review statistical and dynamical marine ecosystem forecasting methods and highlight examples of their application along U.S. coastlines for seasonal-to-interannual (1–24 month) prediction of properties ranging from coastal sea level to marine top predator distributions. We then describe known mechanisms governing marine ecosystem predictability and how they have been used in forecasts to date. These mechanisms include physical atmospheric and oceanic processes, biogeochemical and ecological responses to physical forcing, and intrinsic characteristics of species themselves. In reviewing the state of the knowledge on forecasting techniques and mechanisms underlying marine ecosystem predictability, we aim to facilitate forecast development and uptake by (i) identifying methods and processes that can be exploited for development of skillful regional forecasts, (ii) informing priorities for forecast development and verification, and (iii) improving understanding of conditional forecast skill (i.e., a priori knowledge of whether a forecast is likely to be skillful). While we focus primarily on coastal marine ecosystems surrounding North America (and the U.S. in particular), we detail forecast methods, physical and biological mechanisms, and priority developments that are globally relevant.