Seo Hyodae

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  • Article
    Impact of multidecadal variability in Atlantic SST on winter atmospheric blocking
    (American Meteorological Society, 2019-12-31) Kwon, Young-Oh ; Seo, Hyodae ; Ummenhofer, Caroline C. ; Joyce, Terrence M.
    Recent studies have suggested that coherent multidecadal variability exists between North Atlantic atmospheric blocking frequency and the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV). However, the role of AMV in modulating blocking variability on multidecadal times scales is not fully understood. This study examines this issue primarily using the NOAA Twentieth Century Reanalysis for 1901–2010. The second mode of the empirical orthogonal function for winter (December–March) atmospheric blocking variability in the North Atlantic exhibits oppositely signed anomalies of blocking frequency over Greenland and the Azores. Furthermore, its principal component time series shows a dominant multidecadal variability lagging AMV by several years. Composite analyses show that this lag is due to the slow evolution of the AMV sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, which is likely driven by the ocean circulation. Following the warm phase of AMV, the warm SST anomalies emerge in the western subpolar gyre over 3–7 years. The ocean–atmosphere interaction over these 3–7-yr periods is characterized by the damping of the warm SST anomalies by the surface heat flux anomalies, which in turn reduce the overall meridional gradient of the air temperature and thus weaken the meridional transient eddy heat flux in the lower troposphere. The anomalous transient eddy forcing then shifts the eddy-driven jet equatorward, resulting in enhanced Rossby wave breaking and blocking on the northern flank of the jet over Greenland. The opposite is true with the AMV cold phases but with much shorter lags, as the evolution of SST anomalies differs in the warm and cold phases.
  • Article
    Influences of Pacific climate variability on decadal subsurface ocean heat content variations in the Indian Ocean
    (American Meteorological Society, 2018-04-30) Jin, Xiaolin ; Kwon, Young-Oh ; Ummenhofer, Caroline C. ; Seo, Hyodae ; Schwarzkopf, Franziska U. ; Biastoch, Arne ; Böning, Claus W. ; Wright, Jonathon S.
    Decadal variabilities in Indian Ocean subsurface ocean heat content (OHC; 50–300 m) since the 1950s are examined using ocean reanalyses. This study elaborates on how Pacific variability modulates the Indian Ocean on decadal time scales through both oceanic and atmospheric pathways. High correlations between OHC and thermocline depth variations across the entire Indian Ocean Basin suggest that OHC variability is primarily driven by thermocline fluctuations. The spatial pattern of the leading mode of decadal Indian Ocean OHC variability closely matches the regression pattern of OHC on the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), emphasizing the role of the Pacific Ocean in determining Indian Ocean OHC decadal variability. Further analyses identify different mechanisms by which the Pacific influences the eastern and western Indian Ocean. IPO-related anomalies from the Pacific propagate mainly through oceanic pathways in the Maritime Continent to impact the eastern Indian Ocean. By contrast, in the western Indian Ocean, the IPO induces wind-driven Ekman pumping in the central Indian Ocean via the atmospheric bridge, which in turn modifies conditions in the southwestern Indian Ocean via westward-propagating Rossby waves. To confirm this, a linear Rossby wave model is forced with wind stresses and eastern boundary conditions based on reanalyses. This linear model skillfully reproduces observed sea surface height anomalies and highlights both the oceanic connection in the eastern Indian Ocean and the role of wind-driven Ekman pumping in the west. These findings are also reproduced by OGCM hindcast experiments forced by interannual atmospheric boundary conditions applied only over the Pacific and Indian Oceans, respectively.
  • Article
    Impact of current-wind interaction on vertical processes in the Southern Ocean
    (American Geophysical Union, 2020-03-17) Song, Hajoon ; Marshall, John C. ; McGillicuddy, Dennis J. ; Seo, Hyodae
    Momentum input from westerly winds blowing over the Southern Ocean can be modulated by mesoscale surface currents and result in changes in large‐scale ocean circulation. Here, using an eddy‐resolving 1/20 degree ocean model configured near Drake Passage, we evaluate the impact of current‐wind interaction on vertical processes. We find a reduction in momentum input from the wind, reduced eddy kinetic energy, and a modification of Ekman pumping rates. Wind stress curl resulting from current‐wind interaction leads to net upward motion, while the nonlinear Ekman pumping term associated with horizontal gradients of relative vorticity induces net downward motion. The spatially averaged mixed layer depth estimated using a density criteria is shoaled slightly by current‐wind interaction. Current‐wind interaction, on the other hand, enhances the stratification in the thermocline below the mixed layer. Such changes have the potential to alter biogeochemical processes including nutrient supply, biological productivity, and air‐sea carbon dioxide exchange.
  • Article
    Moored observations of the surface meteorology and air-sea fluxes in the Northern Bay of Bengal in 2015
    (American Meteorological Society, 2018-12-28) Weller, Robert A. ; Farrar, J. Thomas ; Seo, Hyodae ; Prend, Channing ; Sengupta, Debasis ; Lekha, J. Sree ; Ravichandran, M. ; Venkatesan, Ramasamy
    Time series of surface meteorology and air–sea fluxes from the northern Bay of Bengal are analyzed, quantifying annual and seasonal means, variability, and the potential for surface fluxes to contribute significantly to variability in surface temperature and salinity. Strong signals were associated with solar insolation and its modulation by cloud cover, and, in the 5- to 50-day range, with intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs). The northeast (NE) monsoon (DJF) was typically cloud free, with strong latent heat loss and several moderate wind events, and had the only seasonal mean ocean heat loss. The spring intermonsoon (MAM) was cloud free and had light winds and the strongest ocean heating. Strong ISOs and Tropical Cyclone Komen were seen in the southwest (SW) monsoon (JJA), when 65% of the 2.2-m total rain fell, and oceanic mean heating was small. The fall intermonsoon (SON) initially had moderate convective systems and mean ocean heating, with a transition to drier winds and mean ocean heat loss in the last month. Observed surface freshwater flux applied to a layer of the observed thickness produced drops in salinity with timing and magnitude similar to the initial drops in salinity in the summer monsoon, but did not reproduce the salinity variability of the fall intermonsoon. Observed surface heat flux has the potential to cause the temperature trends of the different seasons, but uncertainty in how shortwave radiation is absorbed in the upper ocean limits quantifying the role of surface forcing in the evolution of mixed layer temperature.
  • Article
    Impacts of ocean currents on the South Indian Ocean extratropical storm track through the relative wind effect
    (American Meteorological Society, 2021-10-21) Seo, Hyodae ; Song, Hajoon ; O’Neill, Larry W. ; Mazloff, Matthew R. ; Cornuelle, Bruce D.
    This study examines the role of the relative wind (RW) effect (wind relative to ocean current) in the regional ocean circulation and extratropical storm track in the south Indian Ocean. Comparison of two high-resolution regional coupled model simulations with and without the RW effect reveals that the most conspicuous ocean circulation response is the significant weakening of the overly energetic anticyclonic standing eddy off Port Elizabeth, South Africa, a biased feature ascribed to upstream retroflection of the Agulhas Current (AC). This opens a pathway through which the AC transports the warm and salty water mass from the subtropics, yielding marked increases in sea surface temperature (SST), upward turbulent heat flux (THF), and meridional SST gradient in the Agulhas retroflection region. These thermodynamic and dynamic changes are accompanied by the robust strengthening of the local low-tropospheric baroclinicity and the baroclinic wave activity in the atmosphere. Examination of the composite life cycle of synoptic-scale storms subjected to the high-THF events indicates a robust strengthening of the extratropical storms far downstream. Energetics calculations for the atmosphere suggest that the baroclinic energy conversion from the basic flow is the chief source of increased eddy available potential energy, which is subsequently converted to eddy kinetic energy, providing for the growth of transient baroclinic waves. Overall, the results suggest that the mechanical and thermal air–sea interactions are inherently and inextricably linked together to substantially influence the extratropical storm tracks in the south Indian Ocean.
  • Article
    Coupled ocean–atmosphere modeling and predictions
    (Sears Foundation for Marine Research, 2017-05-01) Miller, Arthur J. ; Collins, Matthew ; Gualdi, Silvio ; Jensen, Tommy G. ; Misra, Vasu ; Pezzi, Luciano Ponzi ; Pierce, David W. ; Putrasahan, Dian ; Seo, Hyodae ; Tseng, Yu-Heng
    Key aspects of the current state of the ability of global and regional climate models to represent dynamical processes and precipitation variations are summarized. Interannual, decadal, and global-warming timescales, wherein the influence of the oceans is relevant and the potential for predictability is highest, are emphasized. Oceanic influences on climate occur throughout the ocean and extend over land to affect many types of climate variations, including monsoons, the El Niño Southern Oscillation, decadal oscillations, and the response to greenhouse gas emissions. The fundamental ideas of coupling between the ocean-atmosphere-land system are explained for these modes in both global and regional contexts. Global coupled climate models are needed to represent and understand the complicated processes involved and allow us to make predictions over land and sea. Regional coupled climate models are needed to enhance our interpretation of the fine-scale response. The mechanisms by which large-scale, low-frequency variations can influence shorter timescale variations and drive regionalscale effects are also discussed. In this light of these processes, the prospects for practical climate predictability are also presented.
  • Article
    Suppressed pCO(2) in the Southern Ocean due to the interaction between current and wind
    (American Geophysical Union, 2021-11-15) Kwak, Kyungmin ; Song, Hajoon ; Marshall, John C. ; Seo, Hyodae ; McGillicuddy, Dennis J.
    The Southern Ocean, an important region for the uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2), features strong surface currents due to substantial mesoscale meanders and eddies. These features interact with the wind and modify the momentum transfer from the atmosphere to the ocean. Although such interactions are known to reduce momentum transfer, their impact on air-sea carbon exchange remains unclear. Using a 1/20° physical-biogeochemical coupled ocean model, we examined the impact of the current-wind interaction on the surface carbon concentration and the air-sea carbon exchange in the Southern Ocean. The current-wind interaction decreased winter partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) at the ocean surface mainly south of the northern subantarctic front. It also reduced pCO2 in summer, indicating enhanced uptake, but not to the same extent as the winter loss. Consequently, the net outgassing of CO2 was found to be reduced by approximately 17% when including current-wind interaction. These changes stem from the combined effect of vertical mixing and Ekman divergence. A budget analysis of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) revealed that a weakening of vertical mixing by current-wind interaction reduces the carbon supply from below, and particularly so in winter. The weaker wind stress additionally lowers the subsurface DIC concentration in summer, which can affect the vertical diffusive flux of carbon in winter. Our study suggests that ignoring current-wind interactions in the Southern Ocean can overestimate winter CO2 outgassing.
  • Article
    Climate Process Team: improvement of ocean component of NOAA Climate Forecast System relevant to Madden-Julian Oscillation simulations
    (American Geophysical Union, 2021-10-04) Shinoda, Toshiaki ; Pei, Suyang ; Wang, Wanqiu ; Fu, Joshua X. ; Lien, Ren-Chieh ; Seo, Hyodae ; Soloviev, Alexander
    Given the increasing attention in forecasting weather and climate on the subseasonal time scale in recent years, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced to support Climate Process Teams (CPTs) which aim to improve the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) prediction by NOAA’s global forecasting models. Our team supported by this CPT program focuses primarily on the improvement of upper ocean mixing parameterization and air-sea fluxes in the NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFS). Major improvement includes the increase of the vertical resolution in the upper ocean and the implementation of General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM) in CFS. In addition to existing mixing schemes in GOTM, a newly developed scheme based on observations in the tropical ocean, with further modifications, has been included. A better performance of ocean component is demonstrated through one-dimensional ocean model and ocean general circulation model simulations validated by the comparison with in-situ observations. These include a large sea surface temperature (SST) diurnal cycle during the MJO suppressed phase, intraseasonal SST variations associated with the MJO, ocean response to atmospheric cold pools, and deep cycle turbulence. Impact of the high-vertical resolution of ocean component on CFS simulation of MJO-associated ocean temperature variations is evident. Also, the magnitude of SST changes caused by high-resolution ocean component is sufficient to influence the skill of MJO prediction by CFS.
  • Article
    Relative contributions of heat flux and wind stress on the spatiotemporal upper-ocean variability in the tropical Indian Ocean
    (IOP Publishing, 2020-08-12) Yuan, Xu ; Ummenhofer, Caroline C. ; Seo, Hyodae ; Su, Zhongbo
    High-resolution ocean general circulation model (OGCM) simulations are employed to investigate interannual variability of the upper-ocean temperature in the tropical Indian Ocean (20°S–20°N). The seasonal cycle and interannual variability in the upper-ocean temperature in the tropical Indian Ocean in the forced ocean simulation are in good agreement with available observation and reanalysis products. Two further sensitivity OGCM simulations are used to separate the relative contributions of heat flux and wind stress. The comparison of the model simulations reveals the depth-dependent influences of heat flux and wind stress on the ocean temperature variability in the tropical Indian Ocean. Generally, heat flux dominates the temperature variability in the top 30 m, while wind stress contributes most strongly to the subsurface temperature variability below 30 m. This implies that a transition depth should exist at each location, where the dominant control of the ocean temperature variability switched from heat flux to wind stress. We define the depth of this transition point as the 'crossing depth' and make use of this concept to better understand the depth-dependent impacts of the heat flux and wind stress on the upper-ocean temperature variability in the tropical Indian Ocean. The crossing depth tends to be shallower in the southern tropical Indian Ocean (20°S-EQ), including the Seychelles-Chagos Thermocline Ridge (SCTR) and the eastern part of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), suggesting the dominance of forcing due to wind stress and the resulting ocean dynamical processes in the temperature variability in those regions. The crossing depth also shows prominent seasonal variability in the southern tropical Indian Ocean. In the SCTR, the variability of the subsurface temperature forced by the wind stress dominates largely in boreal winter and spring, resulting in the shallow crossing depth in these seasons. In contrast, the intensified subsurface temperature variability with shallow crossing depth in the eastern part of the IOD is seen during boreal autumn. Overall, our results suggest that the two regions within the tropical Indian Ocean, the SCTR and the eastern part of the IOD, are the primary locations where the ocean dynamics due to wind-stress forcing control the upper-ocean temperature variability.
  • Article
    What determines the spatial pattern in summer upwelling trends on the U.S. West Coast?
    (American Geophysical Union, 2012-08-09) Seo, Hyodae ; Brink, Kenneth H. ; Dorman, Clive E. ; Koracin, Darko ; Edwards, Christopher A.
    Analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) from coastal buoys suggests that the summertime over-shelf water temperature off the U.S. West Coast has been declining during the past 30 years at an average rate of −0.19°C decade−1. This cooling trend manifests itself more strongly off south-central California than off Oregon and northern California. The variability and trend in the upwelling north of off San Francisco are positively correlated with those of the equatorward wind, indicating a role of offshore Ekman transport in the north. In contrast, Ekman pumping associated with wind stress curls better explains the stronger and statistically more significant cooling trend in the south. While the coast-wide variability and trend in SST are strongly correlated with those of large-scale modes of climate variability, they in general fail to explain the southward intensification of the trend in SST and wind stress curl. This result suggests that the local wind stress curl, often topographically forced, may have played a role in the upwelling trend pattern.
  • Article
    Substantial sea surface temperature cooling in the Banda Sea associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the boreal winter of 2015
    (American Geophysical Union, 2021-05-30) Pei, Suyang ; Shinoda, Toshiaki ; Steffen, John D. ; Seo, Hyodae
    Substantial (∼2°C) basin averaged sea surface temperature (SST) cooling in the Banda Sea occurred in less than a 14-day period during the 2015 boreal winter Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Such rapid and large cooling associated with the MJO has not been reported at least in the last two decades. Processes that control the substantial cooling during the 2015 MJO event are examined using high-resolution ocean reanalysis and one-dimensional (1-D) ocean model simulations. Previous studies suggest that MJO-induced SST variability in the Banda Sea is primarily controlled by surface heat flux. However, heat budget analysis of the model indicates that entrainment cooling produced by vertical mixing contributes more than surface heat flux for driving the basin-wide SST cooling during the 2015 event. Analysis of the ocean reanalysis further demonstrates that the prominent coastal upwelling around islands in the southern basin occurs near the end of the cooling period. The upwelled cold waters are advected by MJO-induced surface currents to a large area within the Banda Sea, which further maintains the basin-wide cold SST. These results are compared with another MJO-driven substantial cooling event during the boreal winter of 2007 in which the cooling is mostly driven by surface heat flux. Sensitivity experiments, in which initial temperature conditions for the two events are replaced by each other, demonstrate that the elevated thermocline associated with the 2015 strong El Niño is largely responsible for the intensified cooling generated by the vertical mixing with colder subsurface waters.
  • Article
    Amplified seasonal cycle in hydroclimate over the Amazon river basin and its plume region
    (Nature Research, 2020-09-01) Liang, Yu-Chiao ; Lo, Min-Hui ; Lan, Chia-Wei ; Seo, Hyodae ; Ummenhofer, Caroline C. ; Yeager, Stephen G. ; Wu, Ren-Jie ; Steffen, John D.
    The Amazon river basin receives ~2000 mm of precipitation annually and contributes ~17% of global river freshwater input to the oceans; its hydroclimatic variations can exert profound impacts on the marine ecosystem in the Amazon plume region (APR) and have potential far-reaching influences on hydroclimate over the tropical Atlantic. Here, we show that an amplified seasonal cycle of Amazonia precipitation, represented by the annual difference between maximum and minimum values, during the period 1979–2018, leads to enhanced seasonalities in both Amazon river discharge and APR ocean salinity. An atmospheric moisture budget analysis shows that these enhanced seasonal cycles are associated with similar amplifications in the atmospheric vertical and horizontal moisture advections. Hierarchical sensitivity experiments using global climate models quantify the relationships of these enhanced seasonalities. The results suggest that an intensified hydroclimatological cycle may develop in the Amazonia atmosphere-land-ocean coupled system, favouring more extreme terrestrial and marine conditions.
  • Article
    On the predominant nonlinear response of the extratropical atmosphere to meridional shifts of the Gulf Stream
    (American Meteorological Society, 2017-11-07) Seo, Hyodae ; Kwon, Young-Oh ; Joyce, Terrence M. ; Ummenhofer, Caroline C.
    The North Atlantic atmospheric circulation response to the meridional shifts of the Gulf Stream (GS) path is examined using a large ensemble of high-resolution hemispheric-scale Weather Research and Forecasting Model simulations. The model is forced with a broad range of wintertime sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies derived from a lag regression on a GS index. The primary result of the model experiments, supported in part by an independent analysis of a reanalysis dataset, is that the large-scale quasi-steady North Atlantic circulation response is remarkably nonlinear about the sign and amplitude of the SST anomaly chosen over a wide range of GS shift scenarios. The nonlinear response prevails over the weak linear response and resembles the negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the leading intrinsic mode of variability in the model and the observations. Further analysis of the associated dynamics reveals that the nonlinear responses are accompanied by the shift of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet, which is reinforced, with nearly equal importance, by the high-frequency transient eddy feedback and the low-frequency wave-breaking events. Additional sensitivity simulations confirm that the nonlinearity of the circulation response is a robust feature found over the broad parameter space encompassing not only the varied SST but also the absence/presence of tropical influence, the varying lateral boundary conditions, and the initialization scheme. The result highlights the fundamental importance of the intrinsically nonlinear transient eddy dynamics and the eddy–mean flow interactions in generating the nonlinear downstream response to the meridional shifts in the Gulf Stream.
  • Article
    The role of wave dynamics and small-scale topography for downslope wind events in southeast Greenland
    (American Meteorological Society, 2015-07) Oltmanns, Marilena ; Straneo, Fiamma ; Seo, Hyodae ; Moore, G. W. K.
    In Ammassalik, in southeast Greenland, downslope winds can reach hurricane intensity and represent a hazard for the local population and environment. They advect cold air down the ice sheet and over the Irminger Sea, where they drive large ocean–atmosphere heat fluxes over an important ocean convection region. Earlier studies have found them to be associated with a strong katabatic acceleration over the steep coastal slopes, flow convergence inside the valley of Ammassalik, and—in one instance—mountain wave breaking. Yet, for the general occurrence of strong downslope wind events, the importance of mesoscale processes is largely unknown. Here, two wind events—one weak and one strong—are simulated with the atmospheric Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with different model and topography resolutions, ranging from 1.67 to 60 km. For both events, but especially for the strong one, it is found that lower resolutions underestimate the wind speed because they misrepresent the steepness of the topography and do not account for the underlying wave dynamics. If a 5-km model instead of a 60-km model resolution in Ammassalik is used, the flow associated with the strong wind event is faster by up to 20 m s−1. The effects extend far downstream over the Irminger Sea, resulting in a diverging spatial distribution and temporal evolution of the heat fluxes. Local differences in the heat fluxes amount to 20%, with potential implications for ocean convection.
  • Article
    Coupled impacts of the diurnal cycle of sea surface temperature on the Madden–Julian oscillation
    (American Meteorological Society, 2014-11-15) Seo, Hyodae ; Subramanian, Aneesh C. ; Miller, Arthur J. ; Cavanaugh, Nicholas R.
    This study quantifies, from a systematic set of regional ocean–atmosphere coupled model simulations employing various coupling intervals, the effect of subdaily sea surface temperature (SST) variability on the onset and intensity of Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) convection in the Indian Ocean. The primary effect of diurnal SST variation (dSST) is to raise time-mean SST and latent heat flux (LH) prior to deep convection. Diurnal SST variation also strengthens the diurnal moistening of the troposphere by collocating the diurnal peak in LH with those of SST. Both effects enhance the convection such that the total precipitation amount scales quasi-linearly with preconvection dSST and time-mean SST. A column-integrated moist static energy (MSE) budget analysis confirms the critical role of diurnal SST variability in the buildup of column MSE and the strength of MJO convection via stronger time-mean LH and diurnal moistening. Two complementary atmosphere-only simulations further elucidate the role of SST conditions in the predictive skill of MJO. The atmospheric model forced with the persistent initial SST, lacking enhanced preconvection warming and moistening, produces a weaker and delayed convection than the diurnally coupled run. The atmospheric model with prescribed daily-mean SST from the coupled run, while eliminating the delayed peak, continues to exhibit weaker convection due to the lack of strong moistening on a diurnal basis. The fact that time-evolving SST with a diurnal cycle strongly influences the onset and intensity of MJO convection is consistent with previous studies that identified an improved representation of diurnal SST as a potential source of MJO predictability.
  • Article
    Effect of eddy-wind interaction on Ekman pumping and eddy kinetic energy : a regional coupled modeling study for the California Current System
    (California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations, 2015) Seo, Hyodae ; Miller, Arthur J. ; Norris, Joel R.
    The California Current system (CCS) is characterized by the energetic summertime mesoscale and filamentary eddies with typical anomalies in sea surface temperature (SST) and surface current exceeding 2˚C and 0.5 cms–1, respectively. Recent satellite observations show that both SST and surface current at oceanic mesoscales significantly influence the Ekman pumping velocity, suggestive of a subsequent dynamical feedback effect on the eddy energetics. The extent to which this mesoscale coupling is important for the Ekman pumping and the eddy kinetic energy (EKE) budget in the CCS is the focus of this study.
  • Article
    North Atlantic winter eddy-driven jet and atmospheric blocking variability in the Community Earth System Model version 1 Large Ensemble simulations
    (Springer, 2018-01-18) Kwon, Young-Oh ; Camacho, Alicia ; Martinez, Carlos ; Seo, Hyodae
    The atmospheric jet and blocking distributions, especially in the North Atlantic sector, have been challenging features for a climate model to realistically reproduce. This study examines climatological distributions of winter (December–February) daily jet latitude and blocking in the North Atlantic from the 40-member Community Earth System Model version 1 Large Ensemble (CESM1LE) simulations. This analysis aims at examining whether a broad range of internal climate variability encompassed by a large ensemble of simulations results in an improved representation of the jet latitude distributions and blocking days in CESM1LE. In the historical runs (1951–2005), the daily zonal wind at 850 hPa exhibits three distinct preferred latitudes for the eddy-driven jet position as seen in the reanalysis datasets, which represents a significant improvement from the previous version of the same model. However, the meridional separations between the three jet latitudes are much smaller than those in the reanalyses. In particular, the jet rarely migrates to the observed southernmost position around 37°N. This leads to the bias in blocking frequency that is too low over Greenland and too high over the Azores. These features are shown to be remarkably stable across the 40 ensemble members with negligible member-to-member spread. This result implies the range of internal variability of winter jet latitude and blocking frequency within the 55-year segment from each ensemble member is comparable to that represented by the full large ensemble. Comparison with 2046–2100 from the RCP8.5 future projection runs suggests that the daily jet position is projected to maintain the same three preferred latitudes, with a slightly higher frequency of occurrence over the central latitude around 50°N, instead of shifting poleward in the future as documented in some previous studies. In addition, the daily jet speed is projected not to change significantly between 1951–2005 and 2046–2100. On the other hand, the climatological mean jet is projected to become slightly more elongated and stronger on its southern flank, and the blocking frequency over the Azores is projected to decrease.
  • Article
    Eddy–wind interaction in the California Current System : dynamics and impacts
    (American Meteorological Society, 2015-11-30) Seo, Hyodae ; Miller, Arthur J. ; Norris, Joel R.
    The summertime California Current System (CCS) is characterized by energetic mesoscale eddies, whose sea surface temperature (SST) and surface current can significantly modify the wind stress and Ekman pumping. Relative importance of the eddy–wind interactions via SST and surface current in the CCS is examined using a high-resolution (7 km) regional coupled model with a novel coupling approach to isolate the small-scale air–sea coupling by SST and surface current. Results show that when the eddy-induced surface current is allowed to modify the wind stress, the spatially averaged surface eddy kinetic energy (EKE) is reduced by 42%, and this is primarily due to enhanced surface eddy drag and reduced wind energy transfer. In contrast, the eddy-induced SST–wind coupling has no significant impact on the EKE. Furthermore, eddy-induced SST and surface current modify the Ekman pumping via their crosswind SST gradient and surface vorticity gradient, respectively. The resultant magnitudes of the Ekman pumping velocity are comparable, but the implied feedback effects on the eddy statistics are different. The surface current-induced Ekman pumping mainly attenuates the amplitude of cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies, acting to reduce the eddy activity, while the SST-induced Ekman pumping primarily affects the propagation. Time mean–rectified change in SST is determined by the altered offshore temperature advection by the mean and eddy currents, but the magnitude of the mean SST change is greater with the eddy-induced current effect. The demonstrated remarkably strong dynamical response in the CCS system to the eddy-induced current–wind coupling indicates that eddy-induced current should play an important role in the regional coupled ocean–atmosphere system.
  • Article
    Meridional Gulf Stream shifts can influence wintertime variability in the North Atlantic storm track and Greenland blocking.
    (American Geophysical Union, 2019-01-29) Joyce, Terrence M. ; Kwon, Young-Oh ; Seo, Hyodae ; Ummenhofer, Caroline C.
    After leaving the U.S. East Coast, the northward flowing Gulf Stream (GS) becomes a zonal jet and carries along its frontal characteristics of strong flow and sea surface temperature gradients into the North Atlantic at midlatitudes. The separation location where it leaves the coast is also an anchor point for the wintertime synoptic storm track across North America to continue to develop and head across the ocean. We examine the meridional variability of the separated GS path on interannual to decadal time scales as an agent for similar changes in the storm track and blocking variability at midtroposphere from 1979 to 2012. We find that periods of northerly (southerly) GS path are associated with increased (suppressed) excursions of the synoptic storm track to the northeast over the Labrador Sea and reduced (enhanced) Greenland blocking. In both instances, GS shifts lead those in the midtroposphere by a few months.
  • Article
    Dynamical response of the Arctic atmospheric boundary layer process to uncertainties in sea-ice concentration
    (John Wiley & Sons, 2013-11-20) Seo, Hyodae ; Yang, Jiayan
    Impact of sea-ice concentration (SIC) on the Arctic atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is investigated using a polar-optimized version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (Polar WRF) model forced with SIC conditions during three different years. We present a detailed comparison of the simulations with historical ship and ice station based data focusing on September. Our analysis shows that Polar WRF provides a reasonable representation of the observed ABL evolution provided that SIC uncertainties are small. Lower skill is obtained, however, with elevated SIC uncertainties associated with incorrect seasonal evolution of sea ice and misrepresentation of ice thickness near the marginal ice zone (MIZ). The result underscores the importance of accurate representation of ice conditions for skillful simulation of the Arctic ABL. Further, two dynamically distinctive effects of sea ice on the surface wind were found, which act on different spatial scales. Reduced SIC lowers ABL stability, thereby increasing surface-wind (W10) speeds. The spatial scale of this response is comparable to the basin scale of the SIC difference. In contrast, near-surface geostrophic wind (Wg) shows a strong response in the MIZ, where a good spatial correspondence exists among the Laplacian of the sea level pressure (SLP), the surface-wind convergence, and the vertical motion within the ABL. This indicates that SIC affects Wg through variation in SLP but on a much narrower scale. Larger-amplitude and broader-scale response in W10 implies that surface-wind stress derived from Wg to drive ice-ocean models may not fully reflect the effect of SIC changes.