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ArticleEpisodic subduction patches in the western North Pacific identified from BGC-Argo float data(European Geosciences Union, 2021-10-13) Chen, Shuangling ; Wells, Mark L. ; Huang, Rui Xin ; Xue, Huijie ; Xi, Jingyuan ; Chai, FeiSubduction associated with mesoscale eddies is an important but difficult-to-observe process that can efficiently export carbon and oxygen to the mesopelagic zone (100–1000 dbar). Using a novel BGC-Argo dataset covering the western North Pacific (20–50∘ N, 120–180∘ E), we identified imprints of episodic subduction using anomalies in dissolved oxygen and spicity, a water mass marker. These subduction patches were present in 4.0 % (288) of the total profiles (7120) between 2008 and 2019, situated mainly in the Kuroshio Extension region between March and August (70.6 %). Roughly 31 % and 42 % of the subduction patches were identified below the annual permanent pycnocline depth (300 m vs. 450 m) in the subpolar and subtropical regions, respectively. Around half (52 %) of these episodic events injected oxygen-enriched waters below the maximum annual permanent thermocline depth (450 dbar), with >20 % occurring deeper than 600 dbar. Subduction patches were detected during winter and spring when mixed layers are deep. The oxygen inventory within these subductions is estimated to be on the order of 64 to 152 g O2/m2. These mesoscale events would markedly increase oxygen ventilation as well as carbon removal in the region, both processes helping to support the nutritional and metabolic demands of mesopelagic organisms. Climate-driven patterns of increasing eddy kinetic energies in this region imply that the magnitude of these processes will grow in the future, meaning that these unexpectedly effective small-scale subduction processes need to be better constrained in global climate and biogeochemical models.
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ArticleAssessment of skill and portability in regional marine biogeochemical models : role of multiple planktonic groups(American Geophysical Union, 2007-08-02) Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M. ; Dusenberry, Jeffrey A. ; Anderson, Laurence A. ; Armstrong, Robert A. ; Chai, Fei ; Christian, James R. ; Doney, Scott C. ; Dunne, John P. ; Fujii, Masahiko ; Hood, Raleigh R. ; McGillicuddy, Dennis J. ; Moore, J. Keith ; Schartau, Markus ; Spitz, Yvette H. ; Wiggert, Jerry D.Application of biogeochemical models to the study of marine ecosystems is pervasive, yet objective quantification of these models' performance is rare. Here, 12 lower trophic level models of varying complexity are objectively assessed in two distinct regions (equatorial Pacific and Arabian Sea). Each model was run within an identical one-dimensional physical framework. A consistent variational adjoint implementation assimilating chlorophyll-a, nitrate, export, and primary productivity was applied and the same metrics were used to assess model skill. Experiments were performed in which data were assimilated from each site individually and from both sites simultaneously. A cross-validation experiment was also conducted whereby data were assimilated from one site and the resulting optimal parameters were used to generate a simulation for the second site. When a single pelagic regime is considered, the simplest models fit the data as well as those with multiple phytoplankton functional groups. However, those with multiple phytoplankton functional groups produced lower misfits when the models are required to simulate both regimes using identical parameter values. The cross-validation experiments revealed that as long as only a few key biogeochemical parameters were optimized, the models with greater phytoplankton complexity were generally more portable. Furthermore, models with multiple zooplankton compartments did not necessarily outperform models with single zooplankton compartments, even when zooplankton biomass data are assimilated. Finally, even when different models produced similar least squares model-data misfits, they often did so via very different element flow pathways, highlighting the need for more comprehensive data sets that uniquely constrain these pathways.
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ArticleNorth Pacific carbon cycle response to climate variability on seasonal to decadal timescales(American Geophysical Union, 2006-07-04) McKinley, Galen A. ; Takahashi, Taro ; Buitenhuis, Erik T. ; Chai, Fei ; Christian, James R. ; Doney, Scott C. ; Jiang, Mingshun ; Lindsay, Keith ; Moore, J. Keith ; Le Quere, Corinne ; Lima, Ivan D. ; Murtugudde, Raghu ; Shi, L. ; Wetzel, PatrickClimate variability drives significant changes in the physical state of the North Pacific, and thus there may be important impacts of climate variability on the upper ocean carbon balance across the basin. We address this issue by considering the response of seven biogeochemical ocean models to climate variability in the North Pacific. The models’ upper ocean pCO2 and air-sea CO2 flux respond similarly to climate variability on seasonal to decadal timescales. Modeled seasonal cycles of pCO2 and its temperature and non-temperature driven components at three contrasting oceanographic sites capture the basic features found in observations [Takahashi et al., 2002, 2006; Keeling et al., 2004; Brix et al., 2004]. However, particularly in the Western Subarctic Gyre, the models have difficulty representing the temporal structure of the total pCO2 cycle because it results from the difference of these two large and opposing components. In all but one model, the airsea CO2 flux interannual variability (1σ) in the North Pacific is smaller (ranges across models from 0.03 to 0.11 PgC/yr) than in the Tropical Pacific (ranges across models from 0.08 to 0.19 PgC/yr), and the timeseries of the first or second EOF of the air-sea CO2 flux has a significant correlation with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Though air-sea CO2 flux anomalies are correlated with the PDO, their magnitudes are small (up to ±0.025 PgC/yr (1σ)). Flux anomalies are damped because anomalies in the key drivers of pCO2 (temperature, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and alkalinity) are all of similar magnitude and have strongly opposing effects that damp total pCO2 anomalies.
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ArticleOn the future of Argo: A global, full-depth, multi-disciplinary array(Frontiers Media, 2019-08-02) Roemmich, Dean ; Alford, Matthew H. ; Claustre, Hervé ; Johnson, Kenneth S. ; King, Brian ; Moum, James N. ; Oke, Peter ; Owens, W. Brechner ; Pouliquen, Sylvie ; Purkey, Sarah G. ; Scanderbeg, Megan ; Suga, Koushirou ; Wijffels, Susan E. ; Zilberman, Nathalie ; Bakker, Dorothee ; Baringer, Molly O. ; Belbeoch, Mathieu ; Bittig, Henry C. ; Boss, Emmanuel S. ; Calil, Paulo H. R. ; Carse, Fiona ; Carval, Thierry ; Chai, Fei ; Conchubhair, Diarmuid Ó. ; d’Ortenzio, Fabrizio ; Dall'Olmo, Giorgio ; Desbruyeres, Damien ; Fennel, Katja ; Fer, Ilker ; Ferrari, Raffaele ; Forget, Gael ; Freeland, Howard ; Fujiki, Tetsuichi ; Gehlen, Marion ; Geenan, Blair ; Hallberg, Robert ; Hibiya, Toshiyuki ; Hosoda, Shigeki ; Jayne, Steven R. ; Jochum, Markus ; Johnson, Gregory C. ; Kang, KiRyong ; Kolodziejczyk, Nicolas ; Körtzinger, Arne ; Le Traon, Pierre-Yves ; Lenn, Yueng-Djern ; Maze, Guillaume ; Mork, Kjell Arne ; Morris, Tamaryn ; Nagai, Takeyoshi ; Nash, Jonathan D. ; Naveira Garabato, Alberto C. ; Olsen, Are ; Pattabhi Rama Rao, Eluri ; Prakash, Satya ; Riser, Stephen C. ; Schmechtig, Catherine ; Schmid, Claudia ; Shroyer, Emily L. ; Sterl, Andreas ; Sutton, Philip J. H. ; Talley, Lynne D. ; Tanhua, Toste ; Thierry, Virginie ; Thomalla, Sandy J. ; Toole, John M. ; Troisi, Ariel ; Trull, Thomas W. ; Turton, Jon ; Velez-Belchi, Pedro ; Walczowski, Waldemar ; Wang, Haili ; Wanninkhof, Rik ; Waterhouse, Amy F. ; Waterman, Stephanie N. ; Watson, Andrew J. ; Wilson, Cara ; Wong, Annie P. S. ; Xu, Jianping ; Yasuda, IchiroThe Argo Program has been implemented and sustained for almost two decades, as a global array of about 4000 profiling floats. Argo provides continuous observations of ocean temperature and salinity versus pressure, from the sea surface to 2000 dbar. The successful installation of the Argo array and its innovative data management system arose opportunistically from the combination of great scientific need and technological innovation. Through the data system, Argo provides fundamental physical observations with broad societally-valuable applications, built on the cost-efficient and robust technologies of autonomous profiling floats. Following recent advances in platform and sensor technologies, even greater opportunity exists now than 20 years ago to (i) improve Argo’s global coverage and value beyond the original design, (ii) extend Argo to span the full ocean depth, (iii) add biogeochemical sensors for improved understanding of oceanic cycles of carbon, nutrients, and ecosystems, and (iv) consider experimental sensors that might be included in the future, for example to document the spatial and temporal patterns of ocean mixing. For Core Argo and each of these enhancements, the past, present, and future progression along a path from experimental deployments to regional pilot arrays to global implementation is described. The objective is to create a fully global, top-to-bottom, dynamically complete, and multidisciplinary Argo Program that will integrate seamlessly with satellite and with other in situ elements of the Global Ocean Observing System (Legler et al., 2015). The integrated system will deliver operational reanalysis and forecasting capability, and assessment of the state and variability of the climate system with respect to physical, biogeochemical, and ecosystems parameters. It will enable basic research of unprecedented breadth and magnitude, and a wealth of ocean-education and outreach opportunities.
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PreprintAssessing the uncertainties of model estimates of primary productivity in the tropical Pacific Ocean( 2008-03) Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M. ; Carr, Mary-Elena ; Barber, Richard T. ; Scardi, Michele ; Antoine, David ; Armstrong, Robert A. ; Asanuma, Ichio ; Behrenfeld, Michael J. ; Buitenhuis, Erik T. ; Chai, Fei ; Christian, James R. ; Ciotti, Aurea M. ; Doney, Scott C. ; Dowell, Mark ; Dunne, John P. ; Gentili, Bernard ; Gregg, Watson ; Hoepffner, Nicolas ; Ishizaka, Joji ; Kameda, Takahiko ; Lima, Ivan D. ; Marra, John F. ; Melin, Frederic ; Moore, J. Keith ; Morel, Andre ; O'Malley, Robert T. ; O'Reilly, Jay ; Saba, Vincent S. ; Schmeltz, Marjorie ; Smyth, Tim J. ; Tjiputra, Jerry ; Waters, Kirk ; Westberry, Toby K. ; Winguth, ArneDepth-integrated primary productivity (PP) estimates obtained from satellite ocean color based models (SatPPMs) and those generated from biogeochemical ocean general circulation models (BOGCMs) represent a key resource for biogeochemical and ecological studies at global as well as regional scales. Calibration and validation of these PP models are not straightforward, however, and comparative studies show large differences between model estimates. The goal of this paper is to compare PP estimates obtained from 30 different models (21 SatPPMs and 9 BOGCMs) to a tropical Pacific PP database consisting of ~1000 14C measurements spanning more than a decade (1983- 1996). Primary findings include: skill varied significantly between models, but performance was not a function of model complexity or type (i.e. SatPPM vs. BOGCM); nearly all models underestimated the observed variance of PP, specifically yielding too few low PP (< 0.2 gC m-2d-2) values; more than half of the total root-mean-squared model-data differences associated with the satellite-based PP models might be accounted for by uncertainties in the input variables and/or the PP data; and the tropical Pacific database captures a broad scale shift from low biomass-normalized productivity in the 1980s to higher biomass-normalized productivity in the 1990s, which was not successfully captured by any of the models. This latter result suggests that interdecadal and global changes will be a significant challenge for both SatPPMs and BOGCMs. Finally, average root-mean-squared differences between in situ PP data on the equator at 140°W and PP estimates from the satellite-based productivity models were 58% lower than analogous values computed in a previous PP model comparison six years ago. The success of these types of comparison exercises is illustrated by the continual modification and improvement of the participating models and the resulting increase in model skill.
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Working PaperPaths forward for exploring ocean iron fertilization(Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, 2023-10-26) Buesseler, Kenneth O. ; Bianchi, Daniele ; Chai, Fei ; Cullen, Jay T. ; Estapa, Margaret L. ; Hawco, Nicholas J. ; John, Seth G. ; McGillicuddy, Dennis J. ; Nawaz, Sara ; Ramakrishna, Kilaparti ; Siegel, David A. ; Smith, Sarah R. ; Steinberg, Deborah K. ; Turk-Kubo, Kendra A. ; Twining, Benjamin S. ; Webb, Romany ; Wells, Mark L. ; White, Angelicque E. ; Yoon, Joo-EunWe need a new way of talking about global warming. UN Secretary General António Guterres underscored this when he said the “era of global boiling” has arrived. Although we have made remarkable progress on a very complex problem over the past thirty years, we have a long way to go before we can keep the global temperature increase to below 2°C relative to the pre-industrial times. Climate models suggest that this next decade is critical if we are to avert the worst consequences of climate change. The world must continue to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and find ways to adapt and build resilience among vulnerable communities. At the same time, we need to find new ways to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere in order to chart a “net negative” emissions pathway. Given their large capacity for carbon storage, the oceans must be included in consideration of our multiple carbon dioxide removal (CDR) options. This report focused on ocean iron fertilization (OIF) for marine CDR. This is by no means a new scientific endeavor. Several members of ExOIS (Exploring Ocean Iron Solutions) have been studying this issue for decades, but the emergence of runaway climate impacts has motivated this group to consider a responsible path forward for marine CDR. That path needs to ensure that future choices are based upon the best science and social considerations required to reduce human suffering and counter economic and ecological losses, while limiting and even reversing the negative impacts that climate change is already having on the ocean and the rest of the planet. Prior studies have confirmed that the addition of small amounts of iron in some parts of the ocean is effective at stimulating phytoplankton growth. Through enhanced photosynthesis, carbon dioxide can not only be removed from the atmosphere but a fraction can also be transferred to durable storage in the deep sea. However, prior studies were not designed to quantify how effective this storage can be, or how wise OIF might be as a marine CDR approach. ExOIS is a consortium that was created in 2022 to consider what OIF studies are needed to answer critical questions about the potential efficiency and ecological impacts of marine CDR (http://oceaniron.org). Owing to concerns surrounding the ethics of marine CDR, ExOIS is organized around a responsible code of conduct that prioritizes activities for the collective benefit of our planet with an emphasis on open and transparent studies that include public engagement. Our goal is to establish open-source conventions for implementing OIF for marine CDR that can be assessed with appropriate monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) protocols, going beyond just carbon accounting, to assess ecological and other non-carbon environmental effects (eMRV). As urgent as this is, it will still take 5 to 10 years of intensive work and considerable resources to accomplish this goal. We present here a “Paths Forward’’ report that stems from a week-long workshop held at the Moss Landing Marine Laboratories in May 2023 that was attended by international experts spanning atmospheric, oceanographic, and social sciences as well as legal specialists (see inside back cover). At the workshop, we reviewed prior OIF studies, distilled the lessons learned, and proposed several paths forward over the next decade to lay the foundation for evaluating OIF for marine CDR. Our discussion very quickly resulted in a recommendation for the need to establish multiple “Ocean Iron Observatories’’ where, through observations and modeling, we would be able to assess with a high degree of certainty both the durable removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide—which we term the “centennial tonne”—and the ecological response of the ocean. In a five-year phase I period, we prioritize five major research activities: 1. Next generation field studies: Studies of long-term (durable) carbon storage will need to be longer (year or more) and larger (>10,000 km2) than past experiments, organized around existing tools and models, but with greater reliance on autonomous platforms. While prior studies suggested that ocean systems return to ambient conditions once iron infusion is stopped, this needs to be verified. We suggest that these next field experiments take place in the NE Pacific to assess the processes controlling carbon removal efficiencies, as well as the intended and unintended ecological and geochemical consequences. 2. Regional, global and field study modeling Incorporation of new observations and model intercomparisons are essential to accurately represent how iron cycling processes regulate OIF effects on marine ecosystems and carbon sequestration, to support experimental planning for large-scale MRV, and to guide decision making on marine CDR choices. 3. New forms of iron and delivery mechanisms Rigorous testing and comparison of new forms of iron and their potential delivery mechanisms is needed to optimize phytoplankton growth while minimizing the financial and carbon costs of OIF. Efficiency gains are expected to generate responses closer to those of natural OIF events. 4. Monitoring, reporting, and verification: Advances in observational technologies and platforms are needed to support the development, validation, and maintenance of models required for MRV of large-scale OIF deployment. In addition to tracking carbon storage and efficiency, prioritizing eMRV will be key to developing regulated carbon markets. 5. Governance and stakeholder engagement: Attention to social dimensions, governance, and stakeholder perceptions will be essential from the start, with particular emphasis on expanding the diversity of groups engaged in marine CDR across the globe. This feedback will be a critical component underlying future decisions about whether to proceed, or not, with OIF for marine CDR. Paramount in the plan is the need to move carefully. Our goal is to conduct these five activities in parallel to inform decisions steering the establishment of ocean iron observatories at multiple locations in phase II. When completed, this decadal plan will provide a rich knowledge base to guide decisions about if, when, where, and under what conditions OIF might be responsibly implemented for marine CDR. The consensus of our workshop and this report is that now is the time for actionable studies to begin. Quite simply, we suggest that some form of marine CDR will be essential to slow down and reverse the most severe consequences of our disrupted climate. OIF has the potential to be one of these climate mitigation strategies. We have the opportunity and obligation to invest in the knowledge necessary to ensure that we can make scientifically and ethically sound decisions for the future of our planet.