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ArticleTowards an end-to-end analysis and prediction system for weather, climate, and marine applications in the Red Sea(American Meteorological Society, 2021-01-01) Hoteit, Ibrahim ; Abualnaja, Yasser ; Afzal, Shehzad ; Ait-El-Fquih, Boujemaa ; Akylas, Triantaphyllos ; Antony, Charls ; Dawson, Clint N. ; Asfahani, Khaled ; Brewin, Robert J. W. ; Cavaleri, Luigi ; Cerovecki, Ivana ; Cornuelle, Bruce D. ; Desamsetti, Srinivas ; Attada, Raju ; Dasari, Hari ; Sanchez-Garrido, Jose ; Genevier, Lily ; El Gharamti, Mohamad ; Gittings, John A. ; Gokul, Elamurugu ; Gopalakrishnan, Ganesh ; Guo, Daquan ; Hadri, Bilel ; Hadwiger, Markus ; Hammoud, Mohammed Abed ; Hendershott, Myrl ; Hittawe, Mohamad ; Karumuri, Ashok ; Knio, Omar ; Kohl, Armin ; Kortas, Samuel ; Krokos, George ; Kunchala, Ravi ; Issa, Leila ; Lakkis, Issam ; Langodan, Sabique ; Lermusiaux, Pierre F. J. ; Luong, Thang ; Ma, Jingyi ; Le Maitre, Olivier ; Mazloff, Matthew R. ; El Mohtar, Samah ; Papadopoulos, Vassilis P. ; Platt, Trevor ; Pratt, Lawrence J. ; Raboudi, Naila ; Racault, Marie-Fanny ; Raitsos, Dionysios E. ; Razak, Shanas ; Sanikommu, Sivareddy ; Sathyendranath, Shubha ; Sofianos, Sarantis S. ; Subramanian, Aneesh C. ; Sun, Rui ; Titi, Edriss ; Toye, Habib ; Triantafyllou, George ; Tsiaras, Kostas ; Vasou, Panagiotis ; Viswanadhapalli, Yesubabu ; Wang, Yixin ; Yao, Fengchao ; Zhan, Peng ; Zodiatis, GeorgeThe Red Sea, home to the second-longest coral reef system in the world, is a vital resource for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The Red Sea provides 90% of the Kingdom’s potable water by desalinization, supporting tourism, shipping, aquaculture, and fishing industries, which together contribute about 10%–20% of the country’s GDP. All these activities, and those elsewhere in the Red Sea region, critically depend on oceanic and atmospheric conditions. At a time of mega-development projects along the Red Sea coast, and global warming, authorities are working on optimizing the harnessing of environmental resources, including renewable energy and rainwater harvesting. All these require high-resolution weather and climate information. Toward this end, we have undertaken a multipronged research and development activity in which we are developing an integrated data-driven regional coupled modeling system. The telescopically nested components include 5-km- to 600-m-resolution atmospheric models to address weather and climate challenges, 4-km- to 50-m-resolution ocean models with regional and coastal configurations to simulate and predict the general and mesoscale circulation, 4-km- to 100-m-resolution ecosystem models to simulate the biogeochemistry, and 1-km- to 50-m-resolution wave models. In addition, a complementary probabilistic transport modeling system predicts dispersion of contaminant plumes, oil spill, and marine ecosystem connectivity. Advanced ensemble data assimilation capabilities have also been implemented for accurate forecasting. Resulting achievements include significant advancement in our understanding of the regional circulation and its connection to the global climate, development, and validation of long-term Red Sea regional atmospheric–oceanic–wave reanalyses and forecasting capacities. These products are being extensively used by academia, government, and industry in various weather and marine studies and operations, environmental policies, renewable energy applications, impact assessment, flood forecasting, and more.
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ArticleThe role of air-sea interactions in atmospheric rivers: Case studies using the SKRIPS regional coupled model(American Geophysical Union, 2021-02-12) Sun, Rui ; Subramanian, Aneesh C. ; Cornuelle, Bruce D. ; Mazloff, Matthew R. ; Miller, Arthur J. ; Ralph, F. MartinAtmospheric rivers (ARs) play a key role in California's water supply and are responsible for most of the extreme precipitation and major flooding along the west coast of North America. Given the high societal impact, it is critical to improve our understanding and prediction of ARs. This study uses a regional coupled ocean–atmosphere modeling system to make hindcasts of ARs up to 14 days. Two groups of coupled runs are highlighted in the comparison: (1) ARs occurring during times with strong sea surface temperature (SST) cooling and (2) ARs occurring during times with weak SST cooling. During the events with strong SST cooling, the coupled model simulates strong upward air–sea heat fluxes associated with ARs; on the other hand, when the SST cooling is weak, the coupled model simulates downward air–sea heat fluxes in the AR region. Validation data shows that the coupled model skillfully reproduces the evolving SST, as well as the surface turbulent heat transfers between the ocean and atmosphere. The roles of air–sea interactions in AR events are investigated by comparing coupled model hindcasts to hindcasts made using persistent SST. To evaluate the influence of the ocean on ARs we analyze two representative variables of AR intensity, the vertically integrated water vapor (IWV) and integrated vapor transport (IVT). During strong SST cooling AR events the simulated IWV is improved by about 12% in the coupled run at lead times greater than one week. For IVT, which is about twice more variable, the improvement in the coupled run is about 5%.
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ArticleOcean observations to improve our understanding, modeling, and forecasting of subseasonal-to-seasonal variability(Frontiers Media, 2019-08-08) Subramanian, Aneesh C. ; Balmaseda, Magdalena A. ; Centurioni, Luca R. ; Chattopadhyay, Rajib ; Cornuelle, Bruce D. ; DeMott, Charlotte ; Flatau, Maria ; Fujii, Yosuke ; Giglio, Donata ; Gille, Sarah T. ; Hamill, Thomas M. ; Hendon, Harry ; Hoteit, Ibrahim ; Kumar, Arun ; Lee, Jae-Hak ; Lucas, Andrew J. ; Mahadevan, Amala ; Matsueda, Mio ; Nam, SungHyun ; Paturi, Shastri ; Penny, Stephen G. ; Rydbeck, Adam ; Sun, Rui ; Takaya, Yuhei ; Tandon, Amit ; Todd, Robert E. ; Vitart, Frederic ; Yuan, Dongliang ; Zhang, ChidongSubseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasts have the potential to provide advance information about weather and climate events. The high heat capacity of water means that the subsurface ocean stores and re-releases heat (and other properties) and is an important source of information for S2S forecasts. However, the subsurface ocean is challenging to observe, because it cannot be measured by satellite. Subsurface ocean observing systems relevant for understanding, modeling, and forecasting on S2S timescales will continue to evolve with the improvement in technological capabilities. The community must focus on designing and implementing low-cost, high-value surface and subsurface ocean observations, and developing forecasting system capable of extracting their observation potential in forecast applications. S2S forecasts will benefit significantly from higher spatio-temporal resolution data in regions that are sources of predictability on these timescales (coastal, tropical, and polar regions). While ENSO has been a driving force for the design of the current observing system, the subseasonal time scales present new observational requirements. Advanced observation technologies such as autonomous surface and subsurface profiling devices as well as satellites that observe the ocean-atmosphere interface simultaneously can lead to breakthroughs in coupled data assimilation (CDA) and coupled initialization for S2S forecasts. These observational platforms should also be tested and evaluated in ocean observation sensitivity experiments with current and future generation CDA and S2S prediction systems. Investments in the new ocean observations as well as model and DA system developments can lead to substantial returns on cost savings from disaster mitigation as well as socio–economic decisions that use S2S forecast information.