Emanuel Kerry A.

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Kerry A.

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  • Preprint
    Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era
    ( 2015-08) Reed, Andra J. ; Mann, Michael E. ; Emanuel, Kerry A. ; Lin, Ning ; Horton, Benjamin P. ; Kemp, Andrew C. ; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.
    In a changing climate, future inundation of the United States’ Atlantic coast will depend on both storm surges during tropical cyclones and the rising relative sea-levels on which those surges occur. However, the observational record of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin is too short (AD 1851-present) to accurately assess long-term trends in storm activity. To overcome this limitation, we use proxy sealevel records, and downscale three CMIP5 models to generate large synthetic tropical cyclone data sets for the North Atlantic basin; driving climate conditions span from AD 850 to AD 2005. We compare preanthropogenic era (AD 850 – AD 1800) and anthropogenic era (AD 1970 – AD 2005) storm-surge model results for New York City, exposing links between increased rates of sea-level rise and storm flood heights. We find that mean flood heights increased by ~1.24 m (due mainly to sea level rise) from ~AD 850 to the anthropogenic era, a result that is significant at the 99% confidence level. Additionally, changes in tropical cyclone characteristics have led to increases in the extremes of the types of storms that create the largest storm surges for New York City. As a result, flood risk has greatly increased for the region; for example, the 500 year return period for a ~2.25 m flood height during the preanthropogenic era has decreased to ~24.4 years in the anthropogenic era. Our results indicate the impacts of climate change on coastal inundation, and call for advanced risk management strategies.
  • Preprint
    Tropical cyclone activity enhanced by Sahara greening and reduced dust emissions during the African Humid Period
    ( 2017-05) Pausata, Francesco Salvatore Rocco ; Emanuel, Kerry A. ; Chiacchio, Marc ; Diro, Gulilat T. ; Zhang, Qiong ; Sushama, Laxmi ; Stager, J. Curt ; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.
    Tropical cyclones (TCs) can have devastating socioeconomic impacts. Understanding the nature and causes of their variability is of paramount importance for society. However, historical records of TCs are too short to fully characterize such changes and paleo-sediment archives of Holocene TC activity are temporally and geographically sparse. Thus it is of interest to apply physical modeling to understanding TC variability under different climate conditions. Here we investigate global TC activity during a warm climate state (mid-Holocene, 6,000 yr BP) characterized by increased boreal summer insolation, a vegetated Sahara, and reduced dust emissions. We analyze a set of sensitivity experiments in which not only solar insolation changes are varied but also vegetation and dust concentrations. Our results show that the greening of the Sahara and reduced dust loadings lead to more favorable conditions for tropical cyclone development compared to the orbital forcing alone. In particular, the strengthening of the West African Monsoon induced by the greening of the Sahara triggers a change in atmospheric circulation that affects the entire tropics. Furthermore, while previous studies suggest that stronger boreal summer insolation and warmer sea surface temperatures may actually lower TC activity in the Northern Hemisphere, accounting for the Sahara greening and its associated reduction in dust emissions leads instead to an increase of TC activity in both hemispheres, particularly over the Caribbean basin and east coast of North America. Our study highlights the importance of regional changes in land cover and dust concentrations in affecting the potential intensity and genesis of past TCs, and suggests that both factors may have appreciable influence on TC activity in a future warmer climate.
  • Article
    Assessing sedimentary records of paleohurricane activity using modeled hurricane climatology
    (American Geophysical Union, 2008-09-18) Woodruff, Jonathan D. ; Donnelly, Jeffrey P. ; Emanuel, Kerry A. ; Lane, D. Philip
    Patterns of overwash deposition observed within back-barrier sediment archives can indicate past changes in tropical cyclone activity; however, it is necessary to evaluate the significance of observed trends in the context of the full range of variability under modern climate conditions. Here we present a method for assessing the statistical significance of patterns observed within a sedimentary hurricane-overwash reconstruction. To alleviate restrictions associated with the limited number of historical hurricanes affecting a specific site, we apply a recently published technique for generating a large number of synthetic storms using a coupled ocean-atmosphere hurricane model set to simulate modern climatology. Thousands of overwash records are generated for a site using a random draw of these synthetic hurricanes, a prescribed threshold for overwash, and a specified temporal resolution based on sedimentation rates observed at a particular site. As a test case we apply this Monte Carlo technique to a hurricane-induced overwash reconstruction developed from Laguna Playa Grande (LPG), a coastal lagoon located on the island of Vieques, Puerto Rico in the northeastern Caribbean. Apparent overwash rates in the LPG overwash record are observed to be four times lower between 2500 and 1000 years B.P. when compared to apparent overwash rates during the last 300 years. However, probability distributions based on Monte Carlo simulations indicate that as much as 65% of this drop can be explained by a reduction in the temporal resolution for older sediments due to a decrease in sedimentation rates. Periods of no apparent overwash activity at LPG between 2500 and 3600 years B.P. and 500–1000 years B.P. are exceptionally long and are unlikely to occur (above 99% confidence) under the current climate conditions. In addition, breaks in activity are difficult to produce even when the hurricane model is forced to a constant El Niño state. Results from this study continue to support the interpretation that the western North Atlantic has exhibited significant changes in hurricane climatology over the last 5500 years.
  • Article
    EUREC4A : a field campaign to elucidate the couplings between clouds, convection and circulation
    (Springer, 2017-09-27) Bony, Sandrine ; Stevens, Bjorn ; Ament, Felix ; Bigorre, Sebastien P. ; Chazette, Patrick ; Crewell, Susanne ; Delanoë, Julien ; Emanuel, Kerry A. ; Farrell, David ; Flamant, Cyrille ; Gross, Silke ; Hirsch, Lutz ; Karstensen, Johannes ; Mayer, Bernhard ; Nuijens, Louise ; Ruppert, James H. ; Sandu, Irina ; Siebesma, Pier ; Speich, Sabrina ; Szczap, Frédéric ; Totems, Julien ; Vogel, Raphaela ; Wendisch, Manfred ; Wirth, Martin
    Trade-wind cumuli constitute the cloud type with the highest frequency of occurrence on Earth, and it has been shown that their sensitivity to changing environmental conditions will critically influence the magnitude and pace of future global warming. Research over the last decade has pointed out the importance of the interplay between clouds, convection and circulation in controling this sensitivity. Numerical models represent this interplay in diverse ways, which translates into different responses of trade-cumuli to climate perturbations. Climate models predict that the area covered by shallow cumuli at cloud base is very sensitive to changes in environmental conditions, while process models suggest the opposite. To understand and resolve this contradiction, we propose to organize a field campaign aimed at quantifying the physical properties of trade-cumuli (e.g., cloud fraction and water content) as a function of the large-scale environment. Beyond a better understanding of clouds-circulation coupling processes, the campaign will provide a reference data set that may be used as a benchmark for advancing the modelling and the satellite remote sensing of clouds and circulation. It will also be an opportunity for complementary investigations such as evaluating model convective parameterizations or studying the role of ocean mesoscale eddies in air–sea interactions and convective organization.
  • Article
    Response of the North Pacific tropical cyclone climatology to global warming : application of dynamical downscaling to CMIP5 models
    (American Meteorological Society, 2017-02-01) Zhang, Lei ; Karnauskas, Kristopher B. ; Donnelly, Jeffrey P. ; Emanuel, Kerry A.
    A downscaling approach is applied to future projection simulations from four CMIP5 global climate models to investigate the response of the tropical cyclone (TC) climatology over the North Pacific basin to global warming. Under the influence of the anthropogenic rise in greenhouse gases, TC-track density, power dissipation, and TC genesis exhibit robust increasing trends over the North Pacific, especially over the central subtropical Pacific region. The increase in North Pacific TCs is primarily manifested as increases in the intense and relatively weak TCs. Examination of storm duration also reveals that TCs over the North Pacific have longer lifetimes under global warming. Through a genesis potential index, the mechanistic contributions of various physical climate factors to the simulated change in TC genesis are explored. More frequent TC genesis under global warming is mostly attributable to the smaller vertical wind shear and greater potential intensity (primarily due to higher sea surface temperature). In contrast, the effect of the saturation deficit of the free troposphere tends to suppress TC genesis, and the change in large-scale vorticity plays a negligible role.
  • Preprint
    Impact of climate change on New York City’s coastal flood hazard : increasing flood heights from the preindustrial to 2300 CE
    ( 2017-09) Garner, Andra J. ; Mann, Michael E. ; Emanuel, Kerry A. ; Kopp, Robert E. ; Lin, Ning ; Alley, Richard B. ; Horton, Benjamin P. ; DeConto, Robert M. ; Donnelly, Jeffrey P. ; Pollard, David
    The flood hazard in New York City depends on both storm surges and rising sea levels. We combine modeled storm surges with probabilistic sea-level rise projections to assess future coastal inundation in New York City from the preindustrial era through 2300 CE. The storm surges are derived from large sets of synthetic tropical cyclones, downscaled from RCP8.5 simulations from three CMIP5 models. The sea-level rise projections account for potential partial collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet in assessing future coastal inundation. CMIP5 models indicate that there will be minimal change in storm-surge heights from 2010 to 2100 or 2300, because the predicted strengthening of the strongest storms will be compensated by storm tracks moving offshore at the latitude of New York City. However, projected sea-level rise causes overall flood heights associated with tropical cyclones in New York City in coming centuries to increase greatly compared with preindustrial or modern flood heights. For the various sea-level rise scenarios we consider, the 1-in-500-y flood event increases from 3.4 m above mean tidal level during 1970–2005 to 4.0–5.1 m above mean tidal level by 2080–2100 and ranges from 5.0–15.4 m above mean tidal level by 2280–2300. Further, we find that the return period of a 2.25-m flood has decreased from ∼500 y before 1800 to ∼25 y during 1970–2005 and further decreases to ∼5 y by 2030–2045 in 95% of our simulations. The 2.25-m flood height is permanently exceeded by 2280–2300 for scenarios that include Antarctica’s potential partial collapse.
  • Article
    Heightened hurricane surge risk in northwest Florida revealed from climatological-hydrodynamic modeling and paleorecord reconstruction
    (John Wiley & Sons, 2014-07-21) Lin, Ning ; Lane, D. Philip ; Emanuel, Kerry A. ; Sullivan, Richard M. ; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.
    Historical tropical cyclone (TC) and storm surge records are often too limited to quantify the risk to local populations. Paleohurricane sediment records uncover long-term TC activity, but interpreting these records can be difficult and can introduce significant uncertainties. Here we compare and combine climatological-hydrodynamic modeling (including a method to account for storm size uncertainty), historical observations, and paleohurricane records to investigate local surge risk, using Apalachee Bay in northwest Florida as an example. The modeling reveals relatively high risk, with 100 year, 500 year, and “worst case” surges estimated to be about 6.3 m, 8.3 m, and 11.3 m, respectively, at Bald Point (a paleorecord site) and about 7.4 m, 9.7 m, and 13.3 m, respectively, at St. Marks (the head of the Bay), supporting the inference from paleorecords that Apalachee Bay has frequently suffered severe inundation for thousands of years. Both the synthetic database and paleorecords contain a much higher frequency of extreme events than the historical record; the mean return period of surges greater than 5 m is about 40 years based on synthetic modeling and paleoreconstruction, whereas it is about 400 years based on historical storm analysis. Apalachee Bay surge risk is determined by storms of broad characteristics, varies spatially over the area, and is affected by coastally trapped Kelvin waves, all of which are important features to consider when accessing the risk and interpreting paleohurricane records. In particular, neglecting size uncertainty may induce great underestimation in surge risk, as the size distribution is positively skewed. While the most extreme surges were generated by the uppermost storm intensities, medium intensity storms (categories 1–3) can produce large to extreme surges, due to their larger inner core sizes. For Apalachee Bay, the storms that induced localized barrier breaching and limited sediment transport (overwash regime; surge between 3 and 5 m) are most likely to be category 2 or 3 storms, and the storms that inundated the entire barrier and deposited significantly more coarse materials (inundation regime; surge > 5 m) are most likely to be category 3 or 4 storms.
  • Article
    (Copernicus Publications, 2021-08-25) Stevens, Bjorn ; Bony, Sandrine ; Farrell, David ; Ament, Felix ; Blyth, Alan ; Fairall, Christopher W. ; Karstensen, Johannes ; Quinn, Patricia K. ; Speich, Sabrina ; Acquistapace, Claudia ; Aemisegger, Franziska ; Albright, Anna Lea ; Bellenger, Hugo ; Bodenschatz, Eberhard ; Caesar, Kathy-Ann ; Chewitt-Lucas, Rebecca ; de Boer, Gijs ; Delanoë, Julien ; Denby, Leif ; Ewald, Florian ; Fildier, Benjamin ; Forde, Marvin ; George, Geet ; Gross, Silke ; Hagen, Martin ; Hausold, Andrea ; Heywood, Karen J. ; Hirsch, Lutz ; Jacob, Marek ; Jansen, Friedhelm ; Kinne, Stefan ; Klocke, Daniel ; Kölling, Tobias ; Konow, Heike ; Lothon, Marie ; Mohr, Wiebke ; Naumann, Ann Kristin ; Nuijens, Louise ; Olivier, Léa ; Pincus, Robert ; Pöhlker, Mira L. ; Reverdin, Gilles ; Roberts, Gregory ; Schnitt, Sabrina ; Schulz, Hauke ; Siebesma, Pier ; Stephan, Claudia Christine ; Sullivan, Peter P. ; Touzé-Peiffer, Ludovic ; Vial, Jessica ; Vogel, Raphaela ; Zuidema, Paquita ; Alexander, Nicola ; Alves, Lyndon ; Arixi, Sophian ; Asmath, Hamish ; Bagheri, Gholamhossein ; Baier, Katharina ; Bailey, Adriana ; Baranowski, Dariusz ; Baron, Alexandre ; Barrau, Sébastien ; Barrett, Paul A. ; Batier, Frédéric ; Behrendt, Andreas ; Bendinger, Arne ; Beucher, Florent ; Bigorre, Sebastien P. ; Blades, Edmund ; Blossey, Peter ; Bock, Olivier ; Böing, Steven ; Bosser, Pierre ; Bourras, Denis ; Bouruet-Aubertot, Pascale ; Bower, Keith ; Branellec, Pierre ; Branger, Hubert ; Brennek, Michal ; Brewer, Alan ; Brilouet, Pierre-Etienne ; Brügmann, Björn ; Buehler, Stefan A. ; Burke, Elmo ; Burton, Ralph ; Calmer, Radiance ; Canonici, Jean-Christophe ; Carton, Xavier ; Cato, Gregory, Jr. ; Charles, Jude Andre ; Chazette, Patrick ; Chen, Yanxu ; Chilinski, Michal T. ; Choularton, Thomas ; Chuang, Patrick ; Clarke, Shamal ; Coe, Hugh ; Cornet, Céline ; Coutris, Pierre ; Couvreux, Fleur ; Crewell, Susanne ; Cronin, Timothy W. ; Cui, Zhiqiang ; Cuypers, Yannis ; Daley, Alton ; Damerell, Gillian M. ; Dauhut, Thibaut ; Deneke, Hartwig ; Desbios, Jean-Philippe ; Dörner, Steffen ; Donner, Sebastian ; Douet, Vincent ; Drushka, Kyla ; Dütsch, Marina ; Ehrlich, André ; Emanuel, Kerry A. ; Emmanouilidis, Alexandros ; Etienne, Jean-Claude ; Etienne-Leblanc, Sheryl ; Faure, Ghislain ; Feingold, Graham ; Ferrero, Luca ; Fix, Andreas ; Flamant, Cyrille ; Flatau, Piotr Jacek ; Foltz, Gregory R. ; Forster, Linda ; Furtuna, Iulian ; Gadian, Alan ; Galewsky, Joseph ; Gallagher, Martin ; Gallimore, Peter ; Gaston, Cassandra J. ; Gentemann, Chelle L. ; Geyskens, Nicolas ; Giez, Andreas ; Gollop, John ; Gouirand, Isabelle ; Gourbeyre, Christophe ; de Graaf, Dörte ; de Graaf, Geiske E. ; Grosz, Robert ; Güttler, Johannes ; Gutleben, Manuel ; Hall, Kashawn ; Harris, George ; Helfer, Kevin C. ; Henze, Dean ; Herbert, Calvert ; Holanda, Bruna ; Ibanez-Landeta, Antonio ; Intrieri, Janet ; Iyer, Suneil ; Julien, Fabrice ; Kalesse, Heike ; Kazil, Jan ; Kellman, Alexander ; Kidane, Abiel T. ; Kirchner, Ulrike ; Klingebiel, Marcus ; Körner, Mareike ; Kremper, Leslie Ann ; Kretzschmar, Jan ; Krüger, Ovid O. ; Kumala, Wojciech ; Kurz, Armin ; L'Hégareta, Pierre ; Labaste, Matthieu ; Lachlan-Cope, Thomas ; Laing, Arlene ; Landschützer, Peter ; Lang, Theresa ; Lange, Diego ; Lange, Ingo ; Laplace, Clément ; Lavik, Gauke ; Laxenaire, Rémi ; Le Bihan, Caroline ; Leandro, Mason ; Lefevre, Nathalie ; Lena, Marius ; Lenschow, Donald ; Li, Qiang ; Lloyd, Gary ; Los, Sebastian ; Losi, Niccolò ; Lovell, Oscar ; Luneau, Christopher ; Makuch, Przemyslaw ; Malinowski, Szymon ; Manta, Gaston ; Marinou, Eleni ; Marsden, Nicholas ; Masson, Sebastien ; Maury, Nicolas ; Mayer, Bernhard ; Mayers-Als, Margarette ; Mazel, Christophe ; McGeary, Wayne ; McWilliams, James C. ; Mech, Mario ; Mehlmann, Melina ; Meroni, Agostino Niyonkuru ; Mieslinger, Theresa ; Minikin, Andreas ; Minnett, Peter J. ; Möller, Gregor ; Morfa Avalos, Yanmichel ; Muller, Caroline ; Musat, Ionela ; Napoli, Anna ; Neuberger, Almuth ; Noisel, Christophe ; Noone, David ; Nordsiek, Freja ; Nowak, Jakub L. ; Oswald, Lothar ; Parker, Douglas J. ; Peck, Carolyn ; Person, Renaud ; Philippi, Miriam ; Plueddemann, Albert J. ; Pöhlker, Christopher ; Pörtge, Veronika ; Pöschl, Ulrich ; Pologne, Lawrence ; Posyniak, Michał ; Prange, Marc ; Quinones Melendez, Estefania ; Radtke, Jule ; Ramage, Karim ; Reimann, Jens ; Renault, Lionel ; Reus, Klaus ; Reyes, Ashford ; Ribbe, Joachim ; Ringel, Maximilian ; Ritschel, Markus ; Rocha, Cesar B. ; Rochetin, Nicolas ; Röttenbacher, Johannes ; Rollo, Callum ; Royer, Haley M. ; Sadoulet, Pauline ; Saffin, Leo ; Sandiford, Sanola ; Sandu, Irina ; Schäfer, Michael ; Schemann, Vera ; Schirmacher, Imke ; Schlenczek, Oliver ; Schmidt, Jerome M. ; Schröder, Marcel ; Schwarzenboeck, Alfons ; Sealy, Andrea ; Senff, Christoph J. ; Serikov, Ilya ; Shohan, Samkeyat ; Siddle, Elizabeth ; Smirnov, Alexander ; Späth, Florian ; Spooner, Branden ; Stolla, M. Katharina ; Szkółka, Wojciech ; de Szoeke, Simon P. ; Tarot, Stéphane ; Tetoni, Eleni ; Thompson, Elizabeth ; Thomson, Jim ; Tomassini, Lorenzo ; Totems, Julien ; Ubele, Alma Anna ; Villiger, Leonie ; von Arx, Jan ; Wagner, Thomas ; Walther, Andi ; Webber, Ben ; Wendisch, Manfred ; Whitehall, Shanice ; Wiltshire, Anton ; Wing, Allison A. ; Wirth, Martin ; Wiskandt, Jonathan ; Wolf, Kevin ; Worbes, Ludwig ; Wright, Ethan ; Young, Shanea ; Zhang, Chidong ; Zhang, Dongxiao ; Ziemen, Florian ; Zinner, Tobias ; Zöger, Martin
    The science guiding the EUREC4A campaign and its measurements is presented. EUREC4A comprised roughly 5 weeks of measurements in the downstream winter trades of the North Atlantic – eastward and southeastward of Barbados. Through its ability to characterize processes operating across a wide range of scales, EUREC4A marked a turning point in our ability to observationally study factors influencing clouds in the trades, how they will respond to warming, and their link to other components of the earth system, such as upper-ocean processes or the life cycle of particulate matter. This characterization was made possible by thousands (2500) of sondes distributed to measure circulations on meso- (200 km) and larger (500 km) scales, roughly 400 h of flight time by four heavily instrumented research aircraft; four global-class research vessels; an advanced ground-based cloud observatory; scores of autonomous observing platforms operating in the upper ocean (nearly 10 000 profiles), lower atmosphere (continuous profiling), and along the air–sea interface; a network of water stable isotopologue measurements; targeted tasking of satellite remote sensing; and modeling with a new generation of weather and climate models. In addition to providing an outline of the novel measurements and their composition into a unified and coordinated campaign, the six distinct scientific facets that EUREC4A explored – from North Brazil Current rings to turbulence-induced clustering of cloud droplets and its influence on warm-rain formation – are presented along with an overview of EUREC4A's outreach activities, environmental impact, and guidelines for scientific practice. Track data for all platforms are standardized and accessible at https://doi.org/10.25326/165 (Stevens, 2021), and a film documenting the campaign is provided as a video supplement.
  • Article
    Sensitivity of northwest Australian tropical cyclone activity to ITCZ migration since 500 CE
    (American Association for the Advancement of Science, 2023-01) Denniston, Rhawn F. ; Ummenhofer, Caroline C. ; Emanuel, Kerry ; Ingrosso, Roberto ; Pausata, Francesco S. R. ; Wanamaker, Alan D. ; Lachniet, Matthew S. ; Carr, Kenneth T. ; Asmerom, Yemane ; Polyak, Victor J. ; Nott, Jonathan ; Zhang, Wei ; Villarini, Gabriele ; Cugley, John ; Brooks, Darren ; Woods, David ; Humphreys, William F.
    Tropical cyclones (TCs) regularly form in association with the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), and thus, its positioning has implications for global TC activity. While the poleward extent of the ITCZ has varied markedly over past centuries, the sensitivity with which TCs responded remains poorly understood from the proxy record, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. Here, we present a high-resolution, composite stalagmite record of ITCZ migrations over tropical Australia for the past 1500 years. When integrated with a TC reconstruction from the Australian subtropics, this time series, along with downscaled climate model simulations, provides an unprecedented examination of the dependence of subtropical TC activity on meridional shifts in the ITCZ. TCs tracked the ITCZ at multidecadal to centennial scales, with a more southward position enhancing TC-derived rainfall in the subtropics. TCs may play an increasingly important role in Western Australia's moisture budgets as subtropical aridity increases due to anthropogenic warming.