Manizza Manfredi

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  • Preprint
    An analysis of the carbon balance of the Arctic Basin from 1997 to 2006
    ( 2010-06-18) McGuire, A. David ; Hayes, Daniel J. ; Kicklighter, David W. ; Manizza, Manfredi ; Zhuang, Qianlai ; Chen, Min ; Follows, Michael J. ; Gurney, Kevin R. ; McClelland, James W. ; Melillo, Jerry M. ; Peterson, Bruce J. ; Prinn, Ronald G.
    This study used several model-based tools to analyze the dynamics of the Arctic Basin between 1997 and 2006 as a linked system of land-ocean-atmosphere C exchange. The analysis estimates that terrestrial areas of the Arctic Basin lost 62.9 Tg C yr-1 and that the Arctic Ocean gained 94.1 Tg C yr-1. Arctic lands and oceans were a net CO2 sink of 108.9 Tg C yr-1, which is within the range of uncertainty in estimates from atmospheric inversions. Although both lands and oceans of the Arctic were estimated to be CO2 sinks, the land sink diminished in strength because of increased fire disturbance compared to previous decades, while the ocean sink increased in strength because of increased biological pump activity associated with reduced sea ice cover. Terrestrial areas of the Arctic were a net source of 41.5 Tg CH4 yr-1 that increased by 0.6 Tg CH4 yr-1 during the decade of analysis, a magnitude that is comparable with an atmospheric inversion of CH4. Because the radiative forcing of the estimated CH4 emissions is much greater than the CO2 sink, the analysis suggests that the Arctic Basin is a substantial net source of green house gas forcing to the climate system.
  • Article
    Modeling transport and fate of riverine dissolved organic carbon in the Arctic Ocean
    (American Geophysical Union, 2009-10-07) Manizza, Manfredi ; Follows, Michael J. ; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie ; McClelland, James W. ; Menemenlis, Dimitris ; Hill, C. N. ; Townsend-Small, Amy ; Peterson, Bruce J.
    The spatial distribution and fate of riverine dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the Arctic may be significant for the regional carbon cycle but are difficult to fully characterize using the sparse observations alone. Numerical models of the circulation and biogeochemical cycles of the region can help to interpret and extrapolate the data and may ultimately be applied in global change sensitivity studies. Here we develop and explore a regional, three-dimensional model of the Arctic Ocean in which, for the first time, we explicitly represent the sources of riverine DOC with seasonal discharge based on climatological field estimates. Through a suite of numerical experiments, we explore the distribution of DOC-like tracers with realistic riverine sources and a simple linear decay to represent remineralization through microbial degradation. The model reproduces the slope of the DOC-salinity relationship observed in the eastern and western Arctic basins when the DOC tracer lifetime is about 10 years, consistent with published inferences from field data. The new empirical parameterization of riverine DOC and the regional circulation and biogeochemical model provide new tools for application in both regional and global change studies.
  • Article
    A model of the Arctic Ocean carbon cycle
    (American Geophysical Union, 2011-12-15) Manizza, Manfredi ; Follows, Michael J. ; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie ; Menemenlis, Dimitris ; McClelland, James W. ; Hill, C. N. ; Peterson, Bruce J. ; Key, Robert M.
    A three dimensional model of Arctic Ocean circulation and mixing, with a horizontal resolution of 18 km, is overlain by a biogeochemical model resolving the physical, chemical and biological transport and transformations of phosphorus, alkalinity, oxygen and carbon, including the air-sea exchange of dissolved gases and the riverine delivery of dissolved organic carbon. The model qualitatively captures the observed regional and seasonal trends in surface ocean PO4, dissolved inorganic carbon, total alkalinity, and pCO2. Integrated annually, over the basin, the model suggests a net annual uptake of 59 Tg C a−1, within the range of published estimates based on the extrapolation of local observations (20–199 Tg C a−1). This flux is attributable to the cooling (increasing solubility) of waters moving into the basin, mainly from the subpolar North Atlantic. The air-sea flux is regulated seasonally and regionally by sea-ice cover, which modulates both air-sea gas transfer and the photosynthetic production of organic matter, and by the delivery of riverine dissolved organic carbon (RDOC), which drive the regional contrasts in pCO2 between Eurasian and North American coastal waters. Integrated over the basin, the delivery and remineralization of RDOC reduces the net oceanic CO2 uptake by ~10%.