Sellner Kevin G.

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Kevin G.

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Challenges associated with modeling low-oxygen waters in Chesapeake Bay : a multiple model comparison

2016-04-06 , Irby, Isaac D. , Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M. , Friedrichs, Carl T. , Bever, Aaron J. , Hood, Raleigh R. , Lanerolle, Lyon W. J. , Li, Ming , Linker, Lewis , Scully, Malcolm E. , Sellner, Kevin G. , Shen, Jian , Testa, Jeremy M. , Wang, Hao , Wang, Ping , Xia, Meng

As three-dimensional (3-D) aquatic ecosystem models are used more frequently for operational water quality forecasts and ecological management decisions, it is important to understand the relative strengths and limitations of existing 3-D models of varying spatial resolution and biogeochemical complexity. To this end, 2-year simulations of the Chesapeake Bay from eight hydrodynamic-oxygen models have been statistically compared to each other and to historical monitoring data. Results show that although models have difficulty resolving the variables typically thought to be the main drivers of dissolved oxygen variability (stratification, nutrients, and chlorophyll), all eight models have significant skill in reproducing the mean and seasonal variability of dissolved oxygen. In addition, models with constant net respiration rates independent of nutrient supply and temperature reproduced observed dissolved oxygen concentrations about as well as much more complex, nutrient-dependent biogeochemical models. This finding has significant ramifications for short-term hypoxia forecasts in the Chesapeake Bay, which may be possible with very simple oxygen parameterizations, in contrast to the more complex full biogeochemical models required for scenario-based forecasting. However, models have difficulty simulating correct density and oxygen mixed layer depths, which are important ecologically in terms of habitat compression. Observations indicate a much stronger correlation between the depths of the top of the pycnocline and oxycline than between their maximum vertical gradients, highlighting the importance of the mixing depth in defining the region of aerobic habitat in the Chesapeake Bay when low-oxygen bottom waters are present. Improvement in hypoxia simulations will thus depend more on the ability of models to reproduce the correct mean and variability of the depth of the physically driven surface mixed layer than the precise magnitude of the vertical density gradient.

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2014-02 , Anderson, Donald M. , McGillicuddy, Dennis J. , DeGrasse, Stacey L. , Sellner, Kevin G. , Bricelj, V. Monica , Turner, Jefferson T. , Townsend, David W. , Kleindinst, Judith L.

The Gulf of Maine (GOM) is a continental shelf sea in the northwest Atlantic, USA that supports highly-productive shellfisheries that are frequently contaminated by toxigenic Alexandrium fundyense blooms and outbreaks of paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP), resulting in significant economic and social impacts. Additionally, an emerging threat to these resources is from blooms of toxic Pseudo-nitzschia species that produce domoic acid, the toxin responsible for amnesic shellfish poisoning (ASP). Nearshore shellfish toxins are monitored by state agencies, whereas most offshore stocks have had little or no routine monitoring. As a result, large areas of federal waters have been indefinitely closed or their shellfish beds underexploited because of the potential risk these toxins pose and the lack of scientific understanding and management tools. Patterns and dynamics of Alexandrium blooms and the resulting shellfish toxicity in nearshore waters were examined in a number of research projects, the largest being the Ecology and Oceanography of Harmful Algal Blooms (ECOHAB)-Gulf of Maine (GOM), a five-year regional program emphasizing field surveys, laboratory studies and numerical modeling. At the completion of the ECOHAB-GOM program (documented in Anderson et al., 2005), great progress was made in understanding A. fundyense blooms and resulting shellfish toxicity in nearshore waters, but there were major unknowns that still required investigation. For example, little was known about A. fundyense bloom dynamics in the waters south and east of Cape Cod, Massachusetts, and in particular, about the link between blooms in surface waters and toxicity in deep offshore shellfish. Large areas of offshore shellfish beds were off limits to harvest, including a 40,000 km2 region closed during the 2005 bloom and a much larger zone (~80,000 km2) including portions of Georges Bank was closed in 1990 after high levels of PSP toxicity were detected. In recent years, pressures were mounting from industry to open those offshore areas and to develop management strategies so that surfclam (Spisula solidissima), ocean quahog (Arctica islandica), and roe-on sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) fisheries could be opened. In response to these unknowns and societal needs, a new multi-investigator program, GOMTOX (Gulf of Maine Toxicity), was formulated and ultimately funded through the NOAA ECOHAB program. GOMTOX was a regional observation and modeling program that investigated the patterns and mechanisms underlying A. fundyense and Pseudo-nitzschia blooms and the resulting toxicity in shellfish in the southern GOM and its adjacent New England shelf waters, with special emphasis on the delivery pathways, mechanisms, and dynamics of offshore shellfish toxicity. The GOMTOX team of investigators included 16 principal investigators from eight institutions and, continuing in the ECOHAB-GOM tradition, strong participation from federal and state resource managers as well as representatives of the shellfish industry. This team worked together for over five years, running numerous large-scale survey cruises of Alexandrium cells and cysts, and also supporting industry cruises to collect shellfish from offshore sites including Georges Bank. Other efforts included participation in National Marine Fisheries Service surveys for shellfish (sea scallops, surfclams, and ocean quahogs), numerical modeling studies, deployment of sediment traps, and laboratory and ship-based experiments to investigate grazing and other processes that might regulate blooms and deliver toxins to shellfish in deeper waters. A smaller-scale but concurrent effort collected samples to characterize Pseudo-nitzschia species and their potential toxicity in the region.