Allyn
Andrew J.
Allyn
Andrew J.
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ArticleWidespread habitat loss and redistribution of marine top predators in a changing ocean(American Association for the Advancement of Science, 2023-08-09) Braun, Camrin D. ; Lezama-Ochoa, Nerea ; Farchadi, Nima ; Arostegui, Martin C. ; Alexander, Michael ; Allyn, Andrew ; Bograd, Steven J. ; Brodie, Stephanie ; Crear, Daniel P. ; Curtis, Tobey H. ; Hazen, Elliott L. ; Kerney, Alex ; Mills, Katherine E. ; Pugh, Dylan ; Scott, James D. ; Welch, Heather ; Young-Morse, Riley ; Lewison, Rebecca L.The Northwest Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico are among the fastest warming ocean regions, a trend that is expected to continue through this century with far-reaching implications for marine ecosystems. We examine the distribution of 12 highly migratory top predator species using predictive models and project expected habitat changes using downscaled climate models. Our models predict widespread losses of suitable habitat for most species, concurrent with substantial northward displacement of core habitats >500 km. These changes include up to >70% loss of suitable habitat area for some commercially and ecologically important species. We also identify predicted hot spots of multi-species habitat loss focused offshore of the U.S. Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts. For several species, the predicted changes are already underway, which are likely to have substantial impacts on the efficacy of static regulatory frameworks used to manage highly migratory species. The ongoing and projected effects of climate change highlight the urgent need to adaptively and proactively manage dynamic marine ecosystems.
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ArticleIt's about time: a synthesis of changing phenology in the Gulf of Maine ecosystem(Wiley, 2019-04-22) Staudinger, Michelle D. ; Mills, Katherine E. ; Stamieszkin, Karen ; Record, Nicholas R. ; Hudak, Christine A. ; Allyn, Andrew ; Diamond, Antony ; Friedland, Kevin D. ; Golet, Walter J. ; Henderson, Meghan Elisabeth ; Hernandez, Christina M. ; Huntington, Thomas G. ; Ji, Rubao ; Johnson, Catherine L. ; Johnson, David Samuel ; Jordaan, Adrian ; Kocik, John ; Li, Yun ; Liebman, Matthew ; Nichols, Owen C. ; Pendleton, Daniel ; Richards, R. Anne ; Robben, Thomas ; Thomas, Andrew C. ; Walsh, Harvey J. ; Yakola, KeenanThe timing of recurring biological and seasonal environmental events is changing on a global scale relative to temperature and other climate drivers. This study considers the Gulf of Maine ecosystem, a region of high social and ecological importance in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean and synthesizes current knowledge of (a) key seasonal processes, patterns, and events; (b) direct evidence for shifts in timing; (c) implications of phenological responses for linked ecological‐human systems; and (d) potential phenology‐focused adaptation strategies and actions. Twenty studies demonstrated shifts in timing of regional marine organisms and seasonal environmental events. The most common response was earlier timing, observed in spring onset, spring and winter hydrology, zooplankton abundance, occurrence of several larval fishes, and diadromous fish migrations. Later timing was documented for fall onset, reproduction and fledging in Atlantic puffins, spring and fall phytoplankton blooms, and occurrence of additional larval fishes. Changes in event duration generally increased and were detected in zooplankton peak abundance, early life history periods of macro‐invertebrates, and lobster fishery landings. Reduced duration was observed in winter–spring ice‐affected stream flows. Two studies projected phenological changes, both finding diapause duration would decrease in zooplankton under future climate scenarios. Phenological responses were species‐specific and varied depending on the environmental driver, spatial, and temporal scales evaluated. Overall, a wide range of baseline phenology and relevant modeling studies exist, yet surprisingly few document long‐term shifts. Results reveal a need for increased emphasis on phenological shifts in the Gulf of Maine and identify opportunities for future research and consideration of phenological changes in adaptation efforts.
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ArticleMarine heatwaves redistribute pelagic fishing fleets(Wiley, 2024-04-04) Farchadi, Nima ; Welch, Heather ; Braun, Camrin D. ; Allyn, Andrew J. ; Bograd, Steven J. ; Brodie, Stephanie ; Hazen, Elliott L. ; Kerney, Alex ; Lezama-Ochoa, Nerea ; Mills, Katherine E. ; Pugh, Dylan ; Young-Morse, Riley ; Lewison, Rebecca L.Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have measurable impacts on marine ecosystems and reliant fisheries and associated communities. However, how MHWs translate to changes in fishing opportunities and the displacement of fishing fleets remains poorly understood. Using fishing vessel tracking data from the automatic identification system (AIS), we developed vessel distribution models for two pelagic fisheries targeting highly migratory species, the U.S. Atlantic longline and Pacific troll fleets, to understand how MHW properties (intensity, size, and duration) influence core fishing grounds and fleet displacement. For both fleets, MHW size had the largest influence on fishing ground area with northern fishing grounds gaining and southern fishing grounds decreasing in area. However, fleet displacement in response to MHWs varied between coasts, as the Atlantic longline fleet displaced farther in southern regions whereas the most northern and southern regions of the Pacific troll fleet shifted farther. Characterizing fishing fleet responses to these anomalous conditions can help identify regional vulnerabilities under future extreme events and aid in supporting climate-readiness and resilience in pelagic fisheries.