Auxiliary material for Paper 2008GL034903

12 May 2008 M=7.9 Wenchuan, China, earthquake calculated to increase failure stress 
and seismicity rate on three major fault systems

Shinji Toda
Active Fault Research Center, Geological Survey of Japan, AIST, Tsukuba, Japan

Jian Lin
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA

Mustapha Meghraoui
Institut de Physique du Globe de Strasbourg, EOST, Strasbourg, France

Ross S. Stein
U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California, USA

Toda, S., J. Lin, M. Meghraoui, and R. S. Stein (2008), 12 May 2008 M=7.9 Wenchuan, China, earthquake calculated to increase failure stress and seismicity rate on three major fault systems, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L17305, doi:10.1029/2008GL034903.


Introduction
This discussion abstracts material from Toda and Stein [2003] and Toda et al. [2005] and then applies it to the Wenchuan earthquake source and receiver faults and the associated ISC earthquake catalog. 

1. 2008gl034903-txts01.xml
Methodology and parameter assumptions.
1.1 Coulomb stress change in an elastic half space.
1.2 Rate- and state stress transfer model.
1.3 Earthquake probability.
1.4 References.

2. 2008gl034903-fs01.eps  
Sensitivity of the calculated stress transfer to assumed fault friction and calculation depth. The source fault model is from Ji and Hayes [2008]. Explanation on the lines and symbols are as in Figure 1. 

3. 2008gl034903-fs02.eps  
Expected rates of the M^3 3.2 earthquakes calculated by rate/state stress transfer, and probabilities for the M^3 6.0 and M^3 7.0 earthquakes for the next 10 years within the entire 750 x 770 km map frame.