A framework for quantifying the magnitude and variability of community responses to global change drivers
Avolio, Meghan L.
La Pierre, Kimberly J.
Houseman, Gregory R.
Koerner, Sally E.
Johnson, David S.
Wilcox, Kevin R.
MetadataShow full item record
KeywordBeta diversity; Community dissimilarity; Convergence; Divergence; Multivariate analysis; Non-metric multidimensional scaling; Rank abundance curve; Species composition
A major challenge in global change ecology is to predict the trajectory and magnitude of community change in response to global change drivers (GCDs). Here, we present a new framework that not only increases the predictive power of individual studies, but also allows for synthesis across GCD studies and ecosystems. First, we suggest that by quantifying community dissimilarity of replicates both among and within treatments, we can infer both the magnitude and predictability of community change, respectively. Second, we demonstrate the utility of integrating rank abundance curves with measures of community dissimilarity to understand the species-level dynamics driving community changes and propose a series of testable hypotheses linking changes in rank abundance curves with shifts in community dissimilarity. Finally, we review six case studies that demonstrate how our new conceptual framework can be applied. Overall, we present a new framework for holistically predicting community responses to GCDs that has broad applicability in this era of unprecedented global change and novel environmental conditions.
© The Author(s), 2015. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Ecosphere 6, no. 12 (2015): 1-14, doi:10.1890/ES15-00317.1.
The following license files are associated with this item:
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Ciliate diversity, community structure, and novel taxa in lakes of the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica Xu, Yuan; Vick-Majors, Trista; Morgan-Kiss, Rachael; Priscu, John C.; Amaral-Zettler, Linda A. (Marine Biological Laboratory, 2014-10-01)We report an in-depth survey of next-generation DNA sequencing of ciliate diversity and community structure in two permanently ice-covered McMurdo Dry Valley lakes during the austral summer and autumn (November 2007 and ...
Atmospheric carbon dioxide variability in the Community Earth System Model : evaluation and transient dynamics during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries Keppel-Aleks, Gretchen; Randerson, James T.; Lindsay, Keith; Stephens, Britton B.; Moore, J. Keith; Doney, Scott C.; Thornton, Peter E.; Mahowald, Natalie M.; Hoffman, Forrest M.; Sweeney, Colm; Tans, Pieter P.; Wennberg, Paul O.; Wofsy, Steven C. (American Meteorological Society, 2013-07-01)Changes in atmospheric CO2 variability during the twenty-first century may provide insight about ecosystem responses to climate change and have implications for the design of carbon monitoring programs. This paper describes ...
Cho, Walter W. (Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, 2008-09)The mechanisms of faunal dispersal across ocean basins are key unknowns toward understanding of the modern biogeography and biodiversity of deep-sea fauna. Seamounts are considered to play a defining role in faunal ...