Winter-to-summer precipitation phasing in southwestern North America : a multicentury perspective from paleoclimatic model-data comparisons
Smerdon, Jason E.
Cook, Benjamin I.
MetadataShow full item record
The phasing of winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies in the North American monsoon (NAM) region 2 (113.25°W–107.75°W, 30°N–35.25°N—NAM2) of southwestern North America is analyzed in fully coupled simulations of the Last Millennium and compared to tree ring reconstructed winter and summer precipitation variability. The models simulate periods with in-phase seasonal precipitation anomalies, but the strength of this relationship is variable on multidecadal time scales, behavior that is also exhibited by the reconstructions. The models, however, are unable to simulate periods with consistently out-of-phase winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies as observed in the latter part of the instrumental interval. The periods with predominantly in-phase winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies in the models are significant against randomness, and while this result is suggestive of a potential for dual-season drought on interannual and longer time scales, models do not consistently exhibit the persistent dual-season drought seen in the dendroclimatic reconstructions. These collective findings indicate that model-derived drought risk assessments may underestimate the potential for dual-season drought in 21st century projections of hydroclimate in the American Southwest and parts of Mexico.
Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 120 (2015): 8052–8064, doi:10.1002/2015JD023085.
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Tracing the Nd isotope evolution of North Atlantic Deep and Intermediate Waters in the western North Atlantic since the Last Glacial Maximum from Blake Ridge sediments Gutjahr, Marcus; Frank, Martin; Stirling, Claudine H.; Keigwin, Lloyd D.; Halliday, Alex N. (2007-10-23)A high-resolution authigenic Nd isotope record has been extracted from the Fe-Mn oxyhydroxide fraction of drift sediments along the Blake Ridge in the North Atlantic. These sediments facilitate reconstruction of the timing ...
The impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the uptake and accumulation of anthropogenic CO2 by North Atlantic Ocean mode waters Levine, Naomi M.; Doney, Scott C.; Lima, Ivan D.; Wanninkhof, Rik; Bates, Nicholas R.; Feely, Richard A. (American Geophysical Union, 2011-09-21)The North Atlantic Ocean accounts for about 25% of the global oceanic anthropogenic carbon sink. This basin experiences significant interannual variability primarily driven by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). A suite ...
Keigwin, Lloyd D.; Cook, Mea S. (American Geophysical Union, 2007-07-11)A simple ocean/atmosphere feedback may reduce the amplitude of climate variability in around the North Atlantic during interglacial compared to glacial states. When climate is warm in the North Atlantic region, the ...