Uncertainty analysis of vegetation distribution in the northern high latitudes during the 21st century with a dynamic vegetation model
Sokolov, Andrei P.
Kicklighter, David W.
Melillo, Jerry M.
MetadataShow full item record
KeywordClimate-induced uncertainty; Greenness migration; Prameter importance; Parameter-induced uncertainty; Sensitivity analysis; Vegetation redistribution
This study aims to assess how high-latitude vegetation may respond under various climate scenarios during the 21st century with a focus on analyzing model parameters induced uncertainty and how this uncertainty compares to the uncertainty induced by various climates. The analysis was based on a set of 10,000 Monte Carlo ensemble Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) simulations for the northern high latitudes (45oN and polewards) for the period 1900–2100. The LPJ Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-DGVM) was run under contemporary and future climates from four Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES), A1FI, A2, B1, and B2, based on the Hadley Centre General Circulation Model (GCM), and six climate scenarios, X901M, X902L, X903H, X904M, X905L, and X906H from the Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). In the current dynamic vegetation model, some parameters are more important than others in determining the vegetation distribution. Parameters that control plant carbon uptake and light-use efficiency have the predominant influence on the vegetation distribution of both woody and herbaceous plant functional types. The relative importance of different parameters varies temporally and spatially and is influenced by climate inputs. In addition to climate, these parameters play an important role in determining the vegetation distribution in the region. The parameter-based uncertainties contribute most to the total uncertainty. The current warming conditions lead to a complexity of vegetation responses in the region. Temperate trees will be more sensitive to climate variability, compared with boreal forest trees and C3 perennial grasses. This sensitivity would result in a unanimous northward greenness migration due to anomalous warming in the northern high latitudes. Temporally, boreal needleleaved evergreen plants are projected to decline considerably, and a large portion of C3 perennial grass is projected to disappear by the end of the 21st century. In contrast, the area of temperate trees would increase, especially under the most extreme A1FI scenario. As the warming continues, the northward greenness expansion in the Arctic region could continue.
© The Author(s), 2012. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Ecology and Evolution 2 (2012): 593–614, doi:10.1002/ece3.85.
The following license files are associated with this item:
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Potential influence of climate-induced vegetation shifts on future land use and associated land carbon fluxes in Northern Eurasia Kicklighter, David W.; Cai, Y.; Zhuang, Qianlai; Parfenova, E. I.; Paltsev, S.; Sokolov, Andrei P.; Melillo, Jerry M.; Reilly, John M.; Tchebakova, Nadja M.; Lu, X. (IOP Publishing, 2014-03-21)Climate change will alter ecosystem metabolism and may lead to a redistribution of vegetation and changes in fire regimes in Northern Eurasia over the 21st century. Land management decisions will interact with these ...
Rapid analysis of 13C in plant-wax n-alkanes for reconstruction of terrestrial vegetation signals from aquatic sediments McDuffee, Kelsey E.; Eglinton, Timothy I.; Sessions, Alex L.; Sylva, Sean P.; Wagner, Thomas; Hayes, John M. (American Geophysical Union, 2004-10-15)Long-chain, odd-carbon-numbered C25 to C35 n-alkanes are characteristic components of epicuticular waxes produced by terrestrial higher plants. They are delivered to aquatic systems via eolian and fluvial transport and are ...
Analysis of internal wave induced mode coupling effects on the 1995 SWARM experiment acoustic transmissions Headrick, Robert H. (Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, 1997-06)As part of the Shallow Water Acoustics in a Random Medium (SWARM) experiment , a sixteen element WHOI vertical line array (WVLA) was moored in 70 meters of water off the New Jersey coast. This array was sampled at ...