Estimating the predictability of an oceanic time series using linear and nonlinear methods
Lozier, M. Susan
Pratt, Lawrence J.
Jones, C. K. R. T.
Helfrich, Karl R.
MetadataShow full item record
This study establishes a series of tests to examine the relative utility of nonlinear time series analysis for oceanic data. The performance of linear autoregressive models and nonlinear delay coordinate embedding methods are compared for three numerical and two observational data sets. The two observational data sets are (1) an hourly near-bottom pressure time series from the South Atlantic Bight and (2) an hourly current-meter time series from the Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB). The nonlinear methods give significantly better predictions than the linear methods when the underlying dynamics have low dimensionality. When the dimensionality is high, the utility of nonlinear methods is limited by the length and quality of the time series. On the application side we mainly focus on the MAB data set. We find that the slope velocities are much less predictable than shelf velocities. Predictability on the slope after several hours is no better than the statistical mean. On the other hand, significant predictability of shelf velocities can be obtained for up to at least 12 hours.
Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2004. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 109 (2004): C08002, doi:10.1029/2003JC002148.
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Generalized concentration addition predicts joint effects of aryl hydrocarbon receptor agonists with partial agonists and cCompetitive antagonists Howard, Gregory J.; Schlezinger, Jennifer J.; Hahn, Mark E.; Webster, Thomas F. (National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, 2009-12-22)Background: Predicting the expected outcome of a combination exposure is critical to risk -assessment. The toxic equivalency factor (TEF) approach used for analyzing joint effects of dioxin-like chemicals is a special case ...
Cruz, Maria João; Menezes, Gui; Machete, Miguel; Silva, Monica A. (Public Library of Science, 2016-11-16)Common dolphins (Delphinus delphis) are responsible for the large majority of interactions with the pole-and-line tuna fishery in the Azores but the underlying drivers remain poorly understood. In this study we investigate ...
A Bayesian network approach to predicting nest presence of the federally-threatened piping plover (Charadrius melodus) using barrier island features Gieder, Katherina D.; Karpanty, Sarah M.; Fraser, James D.; Catlin, Daniel H.; Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Turecek, Aaron M.; Thieler, E. Robert (Elsevier, 2014-01-31)Sea-level rise and human development pose significant threats to shorebirds, particularly for species that utilize barrier island habitat. The piping plover (Charadrius melodus) is a federally-listed shorebird that nests ...