McGillicuddy Dennis J.

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Last Name
McGillicuddy
First Name
Dennis J.
ORCID
0000-0002-1437-2425

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Now showing 1 - 17 of 17
  • Article
    Pseudo-nitzschia bloom dynamics in the Gulf of Maine: 2012-2016
    (Elsevier, 2019-08-19) Clark, Suzanna ; Hubbard, Katherine A. ; Anderson, Donald M. ; McGillicuddy, Dennis J. ; Ralston, David K. ; Townsend, David W.
    The toxic diatom genus Pseudo-nitzschia is a growing presence in the Gulf of Maine (GOM), where regionally unprecedented levels of domoic acid (DA) in 2016 led to the first Amnesic Shellfish Poisoning closures in the region. However, factors driving GOM Pseudo-nitzschia dynamics, DA concentrations, and the 2016 event are unclear. Water samples were collected at the surface and at depth in offshore transects in summer 2012, 2014, and 2015, and fall 2016, and a weekly time series of surface water samples was collected in 2013. Temperature and salinity data were obtained from NERACOOS buoys and measurements during sample collection. Samples were processed for particulate DA (pDA), dissolved nutrients (nitrate, ammonium, silicic acid, and phosphate), and cellular abundance. Species composition was estimated via Automated Ribosomal Intergenic Spacer Analysis (ARISA), a semi-quantitative DNA finger-printing tool. Pseudo-nitzschia biogeography was consistent in the years 2012, 2014, and 2015, with greater Pseudo-nitzschia cell abundance and P. plurisecta dominance in low-salinity inshore samples, and lower Pseudo-nitzschia cell abundance and P. delicatissima and P. seriata dominance in high-salinity offshore samples. During the 2016 event, pDA concentrations were an order of magnitude higher than in previous years, and inshore-offshore contrasts in biogeography were weak, with P. australis present in every sample. Patterns in temporal and spatial variability confirm that pDA increases with the abundance and the cellular DA of Pseudo-nitzschia species, but was not correlated with any one environmental factor. The greater pDA in 2016 was caused by P. australis – the observation of which is unprecedented in the region – and may have been exacerbated by low residual silicic acid. The novel presence of P. australis may be due to local growth conditions, the introduction of a population with an anomalous water mass, or both factors. A definitive cause of the 2016 bloom remains unknown, and continued DA monitoring in the GOM is warranted.
  • Article
    Near-bottom circulation and dispersion of sediment containing Alexandrium fundyense cysts in the Gulf of Maine during 2010–2011
    (Elsevier, 2013-12-13) Aretxabaleta, Alfredo L. ; Butman, Bradford ; Signell, Richard P. ; Dalyander, P. Soupy ; Sherwood, Christopher R. ; Sheremet, Vitalii A. ; McGillicuddy, Dennis J.
    The life cycle of Alexandrium fundyense in the Gulf of Maine includes a dormant cyst stage that spends the winter predominantly in the bottom sediment. Wave-current bottom stress caused by storms and tides induces resuspension of cyst-containing sediment during winter and spring. Resuspended sediment could be transported by water flow to different locations in the Gulf and the redistribution of sediment containing A. fundyense cysts could alter the spatial and temporal manifestation of its spring bloom. The present study evaluates model near-bottom flow during storms, when sediment resuspension and redistribution are most likely to occur, between October and May when A. fundyense cells are predominantly in cyst form. Simulated water column sediment (mud) concentrations from representative locations of the Gulf are used to initialize particle tracking simulations for the period October 2010–May 2011. Particles are tracked in full three-dimensional model solutions including a sinking velocity characteristic of cyst and aggregated mud settling (0.1 mm s−1). Although most of the material was redeposited near the source areas, small percentages of total resuspended sediment from some locations in the western (~4%) and eastern (2%) Maine shelf and the Bay of Fundy (1%) traveled distances longer than 100 km before resettling. The redistribution changed seasonally and was sensitive to the prescribed sinking rate. Estimates of the amount of cysts redistributed with the sediment were small compared to the inventory of cysts in the upper few centimeters of sediment but could potentially have more relevance immediately after deposition.
  • Article
    Variational data assimilative modeling of the Gulf of Maine in spring and summer 2010
    (John Wiley & Sons, 2015-05-19) Li, Yizhen ; He, Ruoying ; Chen, Ke ; McGillicuddy, Dennis J.
    A data assimilative ocean circulation model is used to hindcast the Gulf of Maine [GOM) circulation in spring and summer 2010. Using the recently developed incremental strong constraint 4D Variational data assimilation algorithm, the model assimilates satellite sea surface temperature and in situ temperature and salinity profiles measured by expendable bathythermograph, Argo floats, and shipboard CTD casts. Validation against independent observations shows that the model skill is significantly improved after data assimilation. The data-assimilative model hindcast reproduces the temporal and spatial evolution of the ocean state, showing that a sea level depression southwest of the Scotian Shelf played a critical role in shaping the gulf-wide circulation. Heat budget analysis further demonstrates that both advection and surface heat flux contribute to temperature variability. The estimated time scale for coastal water to travel from the Scotian Shelf to the Jordan Basin is around 60 days, which is consistent with previous estimates based on in situ observations. Our study highlights the importance of resolving upstream and offshore forcing conditions in predicting the coastal circulation in the GOM.
  • Preprint
    Alexandrium fundyense cysts in the Gulf of Maine : long-term time series of abundance and distribution, and linkages to past and future blooms
    ( 2013-10) Anderson, Donald M. ; Keafer, Bruce A. ; Kleindinst, Judith L. ; McGillicuddy, Dennis J. ; Martin, Jennifer L. ; Norton, Kerry ; Pilskaln, Cynthia H. ; Smith, Juliette L. ; Sherwood, Christopher R. ; Butman, Bradford
    Here we document Alexandrium fundyense cyst abundance and distribution patterns over nine years (1997 and 2004-2011) in the coastal waters of the Gulf of Maine (GOM) and identify linkages between those patterns and several metrics of the severity or magnitude of blooms occurring before and after each autumn cyst survey. We also explore the relative utility of two measures of cyst abundance and demonstrate that GOM cyst counts can be normalized to sediment volume, revealing meaningful patterns equivalent to those determined with dry weight normalization.Cyst concentrations were highly variable spatially. Two distinct 1 seedbeds (defined here as accumulation zones with > 300 cysts cm-3) are evident, one in the Bay of Fundy (BOF) and one in mid-coast Maine. Overall, seedbed locations remained relatively constant through time, but their area varied 3-4 fold, and total cyst abundance more than 10 fold among years. A major expansion of the mid-coast Maine seedbed occurred in 2009 following an unusually intense A. fundyense bloom with visible red-water conditions, but that feature disappeared by late 2010. The regional system thus has only two seedbeds with the bathymetry, sediment characteristics, currents, biology, and environmental conditions necessary to persist for decades or longer. Strong positive correlations were confirmed between the abundance of cysts in both the 0-1 and the 0-3 cm layers of sediments in autumn and geographic measures of the extent of the bloom that occurred the next year (i.e., cysts → blooms), such as the length of coastline closed due to shellfish toxicity or the southernmost latitude of shellfish closures. In general, these metrics of bloom geographic extent did not correlate with the number of cysts in sediments following the blooms (blooms → cysts). There are, however, significant positive correlations between 0-3 cm cyst abundances and metrics of the preceding bloom that are indicative of bloom intensity or vegetative cell abundance (e.g., cumulative shellfish toxicity, duration of detectable toxicity in shellfish, and bloom termination date). These data suggest that it may be possible to use cyst abundance to empirically forecast the geographic extent of the forthcoming bloom and, conversely, to use other metrics from bloom and toxicity events to forecast the size of the subsequent cyst population as the inoculum for the next year’s bloom. This is an important step towards understanding the excystment/encystment cycle in A. fundyense bloom dynamics while also augmenting our predictive capability for this HAB-forming species in the GOM.
  • Dataset
    CTD profiles from 2012 to 2019 in the Gulf of Maine
    (Biological and Chemical Oceanography Data Management Office (BCO-DMO). Contact: bco-dmo-data@whoi.edu, 2021-05-04) McGillicuddy, Dennis J. ; Keafer, Bruce ; Kosnyrev, Olga
    CTD profiles from 2012 to 2019 in the Gulf of Maine. For a complete list of measurements, refer to the full dataset description in the supplemental file 'Dataset_description.pdf'. The most current version of this dataset is available at: https://www.bco-dmo.org/dataset/843463
  • Dataset
    Alexandrium cell counts from CTD bottle sampling from 2012 to 2019 in the Gulf of Maine
    (Biological and Chemical Oceanography Data Management Office (BCO-DMO). Contact: bco-dmo-data@whoi.edu, 2021-05-04) McGillicuddy, Dennis J. ; Keafer, Bruce ; Kosnyrev, Olga
    Alexandrium cell counts from CTD bottle sampling from 2012 to 2019 in the Gulf of Maine For a complete list of measurements, refer to the full dataset description in the supplemental file 'Dataset_description.pdf'. The most current version of this dataset is available at: https://www.bco-dmo.org/dataset/834443
  • Dataset
    Bottle sampling from 2012 to 2019 in the Gulf of Maine.
    (Biological and Chemical Oceanography Data Management Office (BCO-DMO). Contact: bco-dmo-data@whoi.edu, 2021-05-04) McGillicuddy, Dennis J. ; Keafer, Bruce ; Kosnyrev, Olga
    Bottle sampling from 2012 to 2019 in the Gulf of Maine. For a complete list of measurements, refer to the full dataset description in the supplemental file 'Dataset_description.pdf'. The most current version of this dataset is available at: https://www.bco-dmo.org/dataset/843467
  • Article
    PSP toxin levels and plankton community composition and abundance in size-fractionated vertical profiles during spring/summer blooms of the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium fundyense in the Gulf of Maine and on Georges Bank, 2007, 2008, and 2010 : 1. Toxin levels
    (Elsevier, 2013-04-12) Deeds, Jonathan R. ; Petitpas, Christian M. ; Shue, Vangie ; White, Kevin D. ; Keafer, Bruce A. ; McGillicuddy, Dennis J. ; Milligan, Peter J. ; Anderson, Donald M. ; Turner, Jefferson T.
    As part of the NOAA ECOHAB funded Gulf of Maine Toxicity (GOMTOX)1 project, we determined Alexandrium fundyense abundance, paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) toxin composition, and concentration in quantitatively-sampled size-fractionated (20–64, 64–100, 100–200, 200–500, and >500 μm) particulate water samples, and the community composition of potential grazers of A. fundyense in these size fractions, at multiple depths (typically 1, 10, 20 m, and near-bottom) during 10 large-scale sampling cruises during the A. fundyense bloom season (May–August) in the coastal Gulf of Maine and on Georges Bank in 2007, 2008, and 2010. Our findings were as follows: (1) when all sampling stations and all depths were summed by year, the majority (94%±4%) of total PSP toxicity was contained in the 20–64 μm size fraction; (2) when further analyzed by depth, the 20–64 μm size fraction was the primary source of toxin for 97% of the stations and depths samples over three years; (3) overall PSP toxin profiles were fairly consistent during the three seasons of sampling with gonyautoxins (1, 2, 3, and 4) dominating (90.7%±5.5%), followed by the carbamate toxins saxitoxin (STX) and neosaxitoxin (NEO) (7.7%±4.5%), followed by n-sulfocarbamoyl toxins (C1 and 2, GTX5) (1.3%±0.6%), followed by all decarbamoyl toxins (dcSTX, dcNEO, dcGTX2&3) (<1%), although differences were noted between PSP toxin compositions for nearshore coastal Gulf of Maine sampling stations compared to offshore Georges Bank sampling stations for 2 out of 3 years; (4) surface cell counts of A. fundyense were a fairly reliable predictor of the presence of toxins throughout the water column; and (5) nearshore surface cell counts of A. fundyense in the coastal Gulf of Maine were not a reliable predictor of A. fundyense populations offshore on Georges Bank for 2 out of the 3 years sampled.
  • Article
    Projected effects of climate change on Pseudo-nitzschia bloom dynamics in the Gulf of Maine
    (Elsevier, 2022-03-24) Clark, Suzanna ; Hubbard, Katherine A. ; Ralston, David K. ; McGillicuddy, Dennis J. ; Stock, Charles A. ; Alexander, Michael A. ; Curchitser, Enrique N.
    Worldwide, warming ocean temperatures have contributed to extreme harmful algal bloom events and shifts in phytoplankton species composition. In 2016 in the Gulf of Maine (GOM), an unprecedented Pseudo-nitzschia bloom led to the first domoic-acid induced shellfishery closures in the region. Potential links between climate change, warming temperatures, and the GOM Pseudo-nitzschia assemblage, however, remain unexplored. In this study, a global climate change projection previously downscaled to 7-km resolution for the Northwest Atlantic was further refined with a 1–3-km resolution simulation of the GOM to investigate the effects of climate change on HAB dynamics. A 25-year time slice of projected conditions at the end of the 21st century (2073–2097) was compared to a 25-year hindcast of contemporary ocean conditions (1994–2018) and analyzed for changes to GOM inflows, transport, and Pseudo-nitzschia australis growth potential. On average, climate change is predicted to lead to increased temperatures, decreased salinity, and increased stratification in the GOM, with the largest changes occurring in the late summer. Inflows from the Scotian Shelf are projected to increase, and alongshore transport in the Eastern Maine Coastal Current is projected to intensify. Increasing ocean temperatures will likely make P. australis growth conditions less favorable in the southern and western GOM but improve P. australis growth conditions in the eastern GOM, including a later growing season in the fall, and a longer growing season in the spring. Combined, these changes suggest that P. australis blooms in the eastern GOM could intensify in the 21st century, and that the overall Pseudo-nitzschia species assemblage might shift to warmer-adapted species such as P. plurisecta or other Pseudo-nitzschia species that may be introduced.
  • Preprint
    A red tide of Alexandrium fundyense in the Gulf of Maine
    ( 2013-04-15) McGillicuddy, Dennis J. ; Brosnahan, Michael L. ; Couture, Darcie A. ; He, Ruoying ; Keafer, Bruce A. ; Manning, James P. ; Martin, Jennifer L. ; Pilskaln, Cynthia H. ; Townsend, David W. ; Anderson, Donald M.
    In early July 2009, an unusually high concentration of the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium fundyense occurred in the western Gulf of Maine, causing surface waters to appear reddish brown to the human eye. The discolored water appeared to be the southern terminus of a large-scale event that caused shellfish toxicity along the entire coast of Maine to the Canadian border. Rapid-response shipboard sampling efforts together with satellite data suggest the water discoloration in the western Gulf of Maine was a highly ephemeral feature of less than two weeks in duration. Flow cytometric analysis of surface samples from the red water indicated the population was undergoing sexual reproduction. Cyst fluxes downstream of the discolored water were the highest ever measured in the Gulf of Maine, and a large deposit of new cysts was observed that fall. Although the mechanisms causing this event remain unknown, its timing coincided with an anomalous period of downwelling-favorable winds that could have played a role in aggregating upward-swimming cells. Regardless of the underlying causes, this event highlights the importance of short-term episodic phenomena on regional population dynamics of A. fundyense.
  • Preprint
    Georges Bank : a leaky incubator of Alexandrium fundyense blooms
    ( 2012-09-21) McGillicuddy, Dennis J. ; Townsend, David W. ; Keafer, Bruce A. ; Thomas, Maura A. ; Anderson, Donald M.
    A series of oceanographic surveys on Georges Bank document variability of populations of the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium fundyense on time scales ranging from synoptic to seasonal to interannual. Blooms of A. fundyense on Georges Bank can reach concentrations on the order of 104 cells l-1, and are generally bank-wide in extent. Georges Bank populations of A. fundyense appear to be quasi-independent of those in the adjacent coastal Gulf of Maine, insofar as they occupy a hydrographic niche that is colder and saltier than their coastal counterparts. In contrast to coastal populations that rely on abundant resting cysts for bloom initiation, very few cysts are present in the sediments on Georges Bank. Bloom dynamics must therefore be largely controlled by the balance between growth and mortality processes, which are at present largely unknown for this population. Based on correlations between cell abundance and nutrient distributions, ammonium appears to be an important source of nitrogen for A. fundyense blooms on Georges Bank.
  • Article
    Water masses and nutrient sources to the Gulf of Maine
    (Sears Foundation for Marine Research, 2015-05-01) Townsend, David W. ; Pettigrew, Neal R. ; Thomas, Maura A. ; Neary, Mark G. ; McGillicuddy, Dennis J. ; O'Donnell, James
    The Gulf of Maine, a semienclosed basin on the continental shelf of the northwest Atlantic Ocean, is fed by surface and deep water flows from outside the gulf: Scotian Shelf Water (SSW) from the Nova Scotian shelf that enters the gulf at the surface and slope water that enters at depth and along the bottom through the Northeast Channel. There are two distinct types of slope water, Labrador Slope Water (LSW) and Warm Slope Water (WSW); it is these deep water masses that are the major source of dissolved inorganic nutrients to the gulf. It has been known for some time that the volume inflow of slope waters of either type to the Gulf of Maine is variable, that it covaries with the magnitude of inflowing SSW, and that periods of greater inflows of SSW have become more frequent in recent years, accompanied by reduced slope water inflows. We present here analyses of a 10-year record of data collected by moored sensors in Jordan Basin in the interior Gulf of Maine, and in the Northeast Channel, along with recent and historical hydrographic and nutrient data that help reveal the nature of SSW and slope water inflows. We show that proportional inflows of nutrient-rich slope waters and nutrient-poor SSWs alternate episodically with one another on timescales of months to several years, creating a variable nutrient field on which the biological productivities of the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank depend. Unlike decades past, more recent inflows of slope waters of either type do not appear to be correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which had been shown earlier to influence the relative proportions of the two types of slope waters that enter the gulf, WSW and LSW. We suggest that of greater importance than the NAO in recent years are recent increases in freshwater fluxes to the Labrador Sea, which may intensify the volume transport of the inshore, continental shelf limb of the Labrador Current and its continuation as the Nova Scotia Current. The result is more frequent, episodic influxes of colder, fresher, less dense, and low-nutrient SSW into the Gulf of Maine and concomitant reductions in the inflow of deep, nutrient-rich slope waters. We also discuss evidence that modified Gulf Stream ring water may have penetrated to Jordan Basin in the summer of 2013.
  • Article
    Investigating Pseudo-nitzschia australis introduction to the Gulf of Maine with observations and models
    (Elsevier, 2021-07-08) Clark, Suzanna ; Hubbard, Katherine A. ; McGillicuddy, Dennis J. ; Ralston, David K. ; Shankar, Sugandha
    In 2016, an unprecedented Pseudo-nitzschia australis bloom in the Gulf of Maine led to the first shellfishery closures due to domoic acid in the region's history. In this paper, potential introduction routes of P. australis are explored through observations, a hydrodynamic model, and a Lagrangian particle tracking model. Based on particle tracking experiments, the most likely source of P. australis to the Gulf of Maine was the Scotian Shelf. However, in 2016, connectivity between the Scotian Shelf and the bloom region was not significantly different from the other years between 2012 and 2019, nor were temperature conditions more favorable for P. australis growth. Observations indicated changes on the Scotian Shelf in 2016 preceded the introduction of P. australis: increased bottom salinity and decreased surface salinity. The increased bottom salinity on the shelf may be linked to anomalously saline water observed near the coast of Maine in 2016 via transport through Northeast Channel. The changes in upstream water mass properties may be related to the introduction of P. australis, and could be the result of either increased influence of the Labrador Current or increased outflow from the Gulf of St. Lawrence. The ultimate source of P. australis remains unknown, although the species has previously been observed in the eastern North Atlantic, and connectivity across the ocean is possible via a subpolar route. Continued and increased monitoring is warranted to track interannual Pseudo-nitzschia persistence in the Gulf of Maine, and sampling on the Scotian Shelf should be conducted to map upstream P. australis populations.
  • Article
    Historic 2005 toxic bloom of Alexandrium fundyense in the west Gulf of Maine : 1. In situ observations of coastal hydrography and circulation
    (American Geophysical Union, 2008-07-26) He, Ruoying ; McGillicuddy, Dennis J.
    An extensive Alexandrium fundyense bloom occurred along the coast of the Gulf of Maine in late spring and early summer 2005. To understand the physical aspects of bloom's initiation and development, in situ observations from both a coast-wide ship survey and the coastal observing network were used to characterize coastal circulation and hydrography during that time period. Comparisons between these in situ observations and their respective long-term means revealed anomalous ocean conditions during May 2005: waters were warmer and fresher coast-wide owing to more surface heating and river runoff; coastal currents were at least 2 times stronger than their climatological means. Surface winds were also anomalous in the form of both episodic bursts of northeast winds and a downwelling-favorable mean condition. These factors may have favored more vigorous along-shore transport and nearshore aggregation of toxic A. fundyense cells (a red tide) in 2005.
  • Preprint
    Mechanisms regulating large-scale seasonal fluctuations in Alexandrium fundyense populations in the Gulf of Maine : results from a physical–biological model
    ( 2005-04-27) McGillicuddy, Dennis J. ; Anderson, Donald M. ; Lynch, Daniel R. ; Townsend, David W.
    Observations of Alexandrium fundyense in the Gulf of Maine indicate several salient characteristics of the vegetative cell distributions: patterns of abundance are gulf-wide in geographic scope; their main features occur in association with the Maine Coastal Current; and the center of mass of the distribution shifts upstream from west to east during the growing season from April to August. The mechanisms underlying these aspects are investigated using coupled physical-biological simulations that represent the population dynamics of A. fundyense within the seasonal mean flow. A model that includes germination, growth, mortality, and nutrient limitation is qualitatively consistent with the observations. Germination from resting cysts appears to be a key aspect of the population dynamics that confines the cell distribution near the coastal margin, as simulations based on a uniform initial inoculum of vegetative cells across the Gulf of Maine produces blooms that are broader in geographic extent than is observed. In general, cells germinated from the major cyst beds (in the Bay of Fundy and near Penobscot and Casco Bays) are advected in the alongshore direction from east to west in the coastal current. Growth of the vegetative cells is limited primarily by temperature from April through June throughout the gulf, whereas nutrient limitation occurs in July and August in the western gulf. Thus the seasonal shift in the center of mass of cells from west to east can be explained by changing growth conditions: growth is more rapid in the western gulf early in the season due to warmer temperatures, whereas growth is more rapid in the eastern gulf later in the season due to severe nutrient limitation in the western gulf during that time period. A simple model of encystment based on nutrient limitation predicts deposition of new cysts in the vicinity of the observed cyst bed offshore of Casco and Penobscot Bays, suggesting a pathway of re-seeding the bed from cells advected downstream in the coastal current. A retentive gyre at the mouth of the Bay of Fundy tends to favor re-seeding that cyst bed from local populations.
  • Dataset
    Nutrient and hydrology data from CTD bottles from 2012 to 2019 in the Gulf of Maine.
    (Biological and Chemical Oceanography Data Management Office (BCO-DMO). Contact: bco-dmo-data@whoi.edu, 2021-05-04) McGillicuddy, Dennis J. ; Keafer, Bruce ; Kosnyrev, Olga
    Nutrient and hydrology data from CTD bottles from 2012 to 2019 in the Gulf of Maine. For a complete list of measurements, refer to the full dataset description in the supplemental file 'Dataset_description.pdf'. The most current version of this dataset is available at: https://www.bco-dmo.org/dataset/834444
  • Article
    Historic 2005 toxic bloom of Alexandrium fundyense in the western Gulf of Maine : 2. Coupled biophysical numerical modeling
    (American Geophysical Union, 2008-07-26) He, Ruoying ; McGillicuddy, Dennis J. ; Keafer, Bruce A. ; Anderson, Donald M.
    A coupled physical/biological modeling system was used to hindcast a massive Alexandrium fundyense bloom that occurred in the western Gulf of Maine in 2005 and to investigate the relative importance of factors governing the bloom's initiation and development. The coupled system consists of a state-of-the-art, free-surface primitive equation Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) tailored for the Gulf of Maine (GOM) using a multinested configuration, and a population dynamics model for A. fundyense. The system was forced by realistic momentum and buoyancy fluxes, tides, river runoff, observed A. fundyense benthic cyst abundance, and climatological nutrient fields. Extensive comparisons were made between simulated (both physical and biological) fields and in situ observations, revealing that the hindcast model is capable of reproducing the temporal evolution and spatial distribution of the 2005 bloom. Sensitivity experiments were then performed to distinguish the roles of three major factors hypothesized to contribute to the bloom: (1) the high abundance of cysts in western GOM sediments; (2) strong ‘northeaster' storms with prevailing downwelling-favorable winds; and (3) a large amount of fresh water input due to abundant rainfall and heavy snowmelt. Model results suggest the following. (1) The high abundance of cysts in western GOM was the primary factor of the 2005 bloom. (2) Wind-forcing was an important regulator, as episodic bursts of northeast winds caused onshore advection of offshore populations. These downwelling favorable winds accelerated the alongshore flow, resulting in transport of high cell concentrations into Massachusetts Bay. A large regional bloom would still have happened, however, even with normal or typical winds for that period. (3) Anomalously high river runoff in 2005 resulted in stronger buoyant plumes/currents, which facilitated the transport of cell population to the western GOM. While affecting nearshore cell abundance in Massachusetts Bay, the buoyant plumes were confined near to the coast, and had limited impact on the gulf-wide bloom distribution.